The average of 24% (ACTUALLY 23.4%, but they’ve taken some liberty with rounding it off…) quoted by Telkom is USELESS without the reductions being weighted by product. What I really want to get to is what the actual 'price reduction' is worth on TELKOM’s side. Since Telkom refuse to give us the figures broken down by line speed, we’ll just make them up, but it will serve the purpose of illustration.
ASSUMPTIONS (no statistical analysis will be complete without it)
Let’s assume that the product distribution is as follows:
192 – 50%
384 – 25%
512 – 15%
1024 – 10%
Let’s assume that last year we had 70,000 subscribers and this year we have 140,000 subscribers.
Let’s further assume that the subscribers have increased linearly over all the above products.
Let’s assume that IS was correct at the ICASA hearings and that it costs Telkom only R40 to supply ADSL infrastructure, irrespective of product. (Considering that you have to have a telephone line over copper and THAT rental fee has always been enough to cover the cost of the maintenance LONG before ADSL came along.)
ANALYSIS
The profits as they exist at the moment are as follows:
192 – [(270-40) * 140,000 * 50%] = 16,100,000
384 – [(359-40) * 140,000 * 25%] = 11,165,000
512 – [(477-40) * 140,000 * 15%] = 9,177,000
1024 – [(680-40) * 140,000 * 10%] = 8,960,000
For a total of R45,402,000.
Now, with the new ‘price reductions’, the profits will look like this the next month:
384 – [(245-40) * 140,000 * 75%] = 21,525,000
512 – [(362-40) * 140,000 * 15%] = 6,763,000
1024 – [(516-40) * 140,000 * 10%] = 6,664,000
For a total of R34,951,000.
So, it seems that while Telkom will be netting a profit of R35 Million, it will about R11 Million less at the end of August than it will be at the end of July.
BUT: Considering that we had 70,000 users last year in August, the profits as they existed THEN were as follows:
192 – [(270-40) * 70,000 * 50%] = 8,050,000
384 – [(359-40) * 70,000 * 25%] = 5,582,500
512 – [(477-40) * 70,000 * 15%] = 4,588,000
1024 – [(680-40) * 70,000 * 10%] = 4,480,000
For a total of R22,701,000…
What does this mean? Well, for one thing, it means that even after the so-called ‘price reductions’ in August this year, Telkom will still be making R12 Million more this August than they did last August!! Which is a GROWTH in profit of over 50%!!! So why should we, the consumers, be satisfied with even a piddly 24%???
/spit
PS: Assuming that the R40 cost of maintaining an ADSL line is a little too low, I’ve worked out that if it actually costs R215, and NOT R40, Telkom will make EXACTLY the same amount of profit (of R10,451,000) this year than it did last year with the current projected ‘price reductions’.
Someone should show THIS to ICASA...
Juice