[May 2013..Dec 2013] The Gauteng E-tolling Thread

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DJ stahp. You're making me sick.

Some serious good work there. This kind of information needs to be spread far and wide.
 
DJ... said:
Here are Sanral's quoted figures with an annual 20% increase. Expenditure adjusted upwards at 6% projected PPI, and this is assuming a 100% compliance rate...

100_compliance_Sanral_figures_20_annual_increase2.png


Seems that this is the perfect increase in order for them to repay their debt and remain solvent, without risking default on their bonds. The true increase is 17.7% year on year increase, but 20% allows for other overhead costs.

So if we're to believe Sanral's claims relating to costs, and their breakdown, we will be subjected to a 20% year on year increase in toll fees every year. This table shows you what you will be paying each year based on which cost bracket you fall under.

Actually this is the kind of thing that should be making its way to the news, as this is all based on data supplied by Sanral themselves. It's just not possible for them to fund the tolls using their numbers, without a 20% year on year increase for 7 years, and without a consistent 100% compliance rate, and 100% 30-day debtors book.

Now let's look at the two more realistic scenarios. If we go with 66% compliance rate, they require a 30.85% year on year increase to the tariffs over 7 years while maintaining a 100% 30-day debtors book (impossible):

66_compliance_Sanral_figures_20_annual_increase.png


And if we all buckle down and abstain, or at least most of us do, and we assume a 33% compliance rate, then they require a 53.91% year on year increase over 7 years with a 100% 30-day debtors book (impossible), plus a R7,2bn cash injection by government over the next two years:

33_compliance_Sanral_figures_20_annual_increase.png
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This is the information that needs to get out. If you want to spread it far and wide, but need some clarification about what you're looking at, then feel free to ask in this thread and I'll happily explain.

But to break it down:

  • I've used Sanral's numbers. These are figures that they have quoted in parliament, in the press, and from their financial statements.
  • I have based their requirements on their existing debt obligations, as per their financial statements.
  • I have then used the numbers that Nazir Ali stated as fact - their breakdown of how many people will pay what.
  • I've then used that model to create scenarios based on compliance rates - 100%, 66%, and 33% (3 million, 2 million, and 1 million people paying each month).
  • I've then adjusted the numbers for the next 7 years (average time required until debt maturity. i.e. they need to repay all debt and interest) to show how much of an increase will be required each year for them to achieve this.
  • I've also provided a weighted average payment that all road users will be liable for. As you can see, it starts out small, but very quickly increases in order for them to remain solvent. So don't be fooled when they make statements like "e-tolls are cheap".
  • I've also broken it down into cost brackets as per Nazir Ali's statements so that you can see exactly what it is you're likely to be paying in the next few years. Basically, if you travel through more than 3 gantries in one direction per day, you will in all likelihood fall into Cost Bracket 4.


Please share this information...
 
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I feel for people like a friend of mine. There is no way he can avoid the toll roads, and he wants to stand with me on this matter but he can't afford a r750 bill a month. And all the legal stuff that comes with it.
His company will refund his toll charges if he stays with in a r450 budget. It makes it hard for people that can't have criminal records or charges against them.

I'm still having him hold out though. :D

I can drive alternative roads, it is going to be a pain and I'm up for being in Shyte with scumral. So I will be trying to avoid the tolls but I want to clog up their system so I will be using it just to get their system in a mess.
 
Mila said:
I feel for people like a friend of mine. There is no way he can avoid the toll roads, and he wants to stand with me on this matter but he can't afford a r750 bill a month. And all the legal stuff that comes with it.
His company will refund his toll charges if he stays with in a r450 budget. It makes it hard for people that can't have criminal records or charges against them.

I'm still having him hold out though. :D

I can drive alternative roads, it is going to be a pain and I'm up for being in Shyte with scumral. So I will be trying to avoid the tolls but I want to clog up their system so I will be using it just to get their system in a mess.
Click to expand...

If that friend of yours stood firm he wouldn't be paying anything.
 
DJ... said:
So if we're to believe Sanral's claims relating to costs, and their breakdown, we will be subjected to a 20% year on year increase in toll fees every year.
Click to expand...

20% annual increases in e-toll tariffs won't happen unless our inflation really gets out of hand:

Paragraph 5.21 from Government Notice 37038 dated 19 November 2013 (the government gazette document containing the e-toll tariffs)
The tariffs and amounts displayed in this notice may be adjusted by a determination of the Minister annually: Provided that such adjustment shall not exceed the Consumer Price Index calculated for the preceding 12 months.

However as I've mentioned previously, this does not mean that the caps and discounts cannot be done away with when SANRAL need more cash, as they do not form part of the base tariff.
 
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Albereth said:
If that friend of yours stood firm he wouldn't be paying anything.
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Keyboard activist speaks. Perhaps less "like" and more real life action and there wouldn't be gantries in the first place.
 
Paul_S said:
20% annual increases in e-toll tariffs won't happen unless our inflation really gets out of hand:

Paragraph 5.21 from Government Notice 37038 dated 19 November 2013
The tariffs and amounts displayed in this notice may be adjusted by a determination of the Minister annually: Provided that such adjustment shall not exceed the Consumer Price Index calculated for the preceding 12 months.
Click to expand...

But there is no limit on the lifting of the cap or reduction of the discounted rates until they match the alternative rate.....
 
Sinbad said:
But there is no limit on the lifting of the cap or reduction of the discounted rates until they match the alternative rate.....
Click to expand...

You were too fast. I added that to my post. :)
I see that cap being increased or disappearing not far down the road.

The original tariffs for class A2 vehicles was 66c/km which clearly shows what SANRAL want to be charging and that was back in 2011.
 
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oke so the toll roads are now going to cause heavy traffic on other roads, I will have noise pollution that exceeds the legal numbers. Who has to build the noise canceling wall?
 
Mila said:
oke so the toll roads are now going to cause heavy traffic on other roads, I will have noise pollution that exceeds the legal numbers. Who has to build the noise canceling wall?
Click to expand...

They will have to upgrade that road and implement an E-Toll on it to pay for it... User pays, remember.
 
Albereth said:
Nazir Alli says we should take our frustrations regarding corruption on a corrupt company.
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I agree though... this eToll company has kept their name out of it and I believe that they should be baring the brunt of this wrath.... as they are the ones that made this eToll deal.
 
SANRAL welcomes SACCI support

The SA National Roads Agency Ltd (Sanral) has welcomed the support by the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry for electronic tolling in Gauteng.

"...Big business is a vital part of the economy of not only this province but of the country. It is therefore a significant endorsement to have its [Sacci's] backing," said Sanral spokesman Vusi Mona on Tuesday.

The roads agency said it offered a number of e-tolling services to businesses, including bulk registration, and fleet registration. The bulk registration service offered groups of people (in excess of 50) tolling registration at a venue of their choice.

The fleet registration service was offered to a company with a fleet of vehicles.

Last week, Transport Minister Dipuo Peters announced that e-tolling would begin on December 3.

There was mixed reaction as several organisations, unions and political parties said they were disappointed by the move.


Source : Sapa /mar/fg/jk/jje
Date : 26 Nov 2013 10:46
 
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