Does anyone know of basic research done to calculate how much potential revenue Telkom is set to loose from all these developments? I mean, the rational for municipal networks is the savings on their Telkom bills. With Vodacom, MTN, Municipalities and some parts of government switching to Neotel/Infraco, how much business will Telkom retain? (MTN will save R9.1bn over 10 years, Vodacom will save more than R8-9bn (
article), 4 metros will save over R2-3bn between them, SITA gave R1bn contract to Neotel, etc) - that is a lot of potential (and actual) revenue lost to Telkom.
IMHO, these investments will lead to substansive real (if not nominal) reductions in cost of data (R/Mb transfered), which will lead to significantly high growth rates in data send (Total revenue may/may not increase depending on the drop in price and increase in quantity). Very little, if any of the growth will go to Telkom, but with real price (per Mb) falling, Telkom's revenue is likely to face serious challenges - wonder how happy Telkom shareholders will be if their revenue growth is 5% p.a. (with inflation at 10%, real growth is thus -5%) while the rest of the market get 15%-25% p.a. growth in revenue? And that is before the impact of Seacom stripping away all their revenue from SAT3.