OT: ANC Elective Conference

A final update to the thread:

TRAINSPOTTER: The ANC’s 54th Electoral Scamathon is (finally, finally) over, and the fix is in

A long long time ago, Cyril Ramaphosa was destined to become the second president of the African National Congress. Some stuff happened, but not the right kind of stuff, and he was instead “deployed to business” by Nelson Mandela, who was determined to install cadres into South Africa’s air-conditioned boardrooms, the very aeries from which blacks had been excluded for the duration of colonialism and its various derivations. Unsurprisingly, Ramaphosa found the moneyed life to be absolutely bloody awesome. Alternately ruthless and avuncular, and despite the occasional dark whisper about his Black Economic Empowerment vehicle Shanduka, he drifted through the South African maelstrom on a cloud of forex, seemingly unsullied by the muck and the slime. Even his involvement in the Marikana massacre didn’t put a wrinkle in the punditocracy’s admiration.

Still, a tantalising chunk of his biography remained unrealised. With the forces of evil lined up against him in their numbers, would Ramaphosa ever be allowed to fulfil his destiny? Hours before Jacob Zuma’s successor was announced in Nasrec Expo Centre’s plenary hall on Monday evening, no one in South Africa could answer that question with any certainty.

When Ramaphosa won the “election” by 179 votes over Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, my mind gravitated to other long-in-the-works projects that were supposed to happen, never happened, then suddenly happened. Naturally, this got me thinking about hard rock megastars Guns N’ Roses, and their sixth studio album, titled Chinese Democracy. Which, just as naturally, got me thinking about Chuck Klosterman’s legendary review of the record, which was published in the AV Club in 2008, and remains one of the better pieces of rock criticism ever written. (Some backstory: Chinese Democracy was the band’s first de facto album since 1993, and the 15-year wait had driven fans around the bend.) Here’s what Klosterman had to say:

“Reviewing Chinese Democracy is not like reviewing music. It's more like reviewing a unicorn. Should I primarily be blown away that it exists at all? Am I supposed to compare it to conventional horses? To a rhinoceros? Does its pre-existing mythology impact its actual value, or must it be examined inside a cultural vacuum, as if this creature is no more (or less) special than the remainder of the animal kingdom? I've been thinking about this record for 15 years; during that span, I've thought about this record more than I've thought about China, and maybe as much as I've thought about the principles of democracy.”

Similarly, analysing the newborn Ramaphosa presidency is like writing about fairies. How are we to properly, and responsibly, consider the properties of a magical creature whose existence we never truly believed to be possible? Thankfully, unlike Chinese Democracy—which was essentially a solo album crafted by Guns N’ Roses front-man, Axl Rose—we are impelled to understand Ramaphosa’s presidency not as a individual project, but as the effort of the entire ANC band. 6

And the band is unequivocally ****ty.
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We watched the ANC essentially split itself in two in real-time. I still expect them to stay together until 2019, but they're going to lose a lot of support - and I expect 49% or less, depending on what they allow Zuma to get away with.
 
CataclysmZA said:
A final update to the thread:

TRAINSPOTTER: The ANC’s 54th Electoral Scamathon is (finally, finally) over, and the fix is in



We watched the ANC essentially split itself in two in real-time. I still expect them to stay together until 2019, but they're going to lose a lot of support - and I expect 49% or less, depending on what they allow Zuma to get away with.
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The ANC is only split in two within itself and its members, outside of that it's supporters won't be choosing between NDZ and Cyril in 2019, they will be choosing between the ANC and other opposition parties, its internal divisions won't matter much in 2019. It will be the ANC of Oliver Rambo and Nelson Mandela. The alliance seems to be back in the fold and they will be campaigning hard for the ANC, even Zuma knows that keeping the ANC in power is still his best shot at a chance of staying out of prison and he will be campaigning for the ANC in KZN.

They will lose some support in KZN but overall they will still perform better than they did under Zuma.
 
There's no stopping this train, IMO. The ANC can make all the platitudes it wants in the run-up to 2019, they still have too much to answer for, and too little political will to do anything about it.

And from what I've heard from the cashiers at the till, the workers in the harbour, and the taxi driver on the sidewalk, is that they are gatvol. Nothing is improving, everything is getting more expensive, and SoEs are crashing.
 
CataclysmZA said:
And from what I've heard from the cashiers at the till, the workers in the harbour, and the taxi driver on the sidewalk, is that they are gatvol. Nothing is improving, everything is getting more expensive, and SoEs are crashing.
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And yet, come 2019 - they will be voting for the ANC. Go figure.
 
Tander said:
And yet, come 2019 - they will be voting for the ANC. Go figure.
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This is too mild comment. Correct way would be to brand all ANC voters as illiterates, corruption supporters, savages, bee beneficiaries, freeloaders and so on - how else is one going to motivate them of the right path?
 
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genetic said:
The elections aren't rigged. :rolleyes:
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They aren't. There's no need to when 55% of the population support you, no matter what you do.

surface said:
This is too mild comment. Correct way would be to brand all ANC voters as illiterates, corruption supporters, savages, bee beneficiaries, freeloaders and so on - how else is one going to motivate them of the right path?
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That's a little harsh.
 
Tander said:
And yet, come 2019 - they will be voting for the ANC. Go figure.
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Given the downward trend in the number of voters picking the ANC over other parties, I don't think so. There are a lot of people changing their minds and moving to other platforms, and the youth in particular aren't joining or supporting the ANC like they used to. All over the country, even in ANC strongholds, there are voting shifts towards the opposition, and the ANC only has gains in very few areas.

Granted, people who have voted for the ANC their entire life and see the party as the lifeblood of the country will continue voting for them. Rural areas remain especially loyal. But that's changing too, just very slowly.
 
CataclysmZA said:
Given the downward trend in the number of voters picking the ANC over other parties, I don't think so. There are a lot of people changing their minds and moving to other platforms, and the youth in particular aren't joining or supporting the ANC like they used to. All over the country, even in ANC strongholds, there are voting shifts towards the opposition, and the ANC only has gains in very few areas.

Granted, people who have voted for the ANC their entire life and see the party as the lifeblood of the country will continue voting for them. Rural areas remain especially loyal. But that's changing too, just very slowly.
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Perhaps. I guess 2016 showed us this trend. However in my mind = Cyril winning, means ANC wins 2019. Maybe its not as easy as that.
 
CataclysmZA said:
Given the downward trend in the number of voters picking the ANC over other parties, I don't think so. There are a lot of people changing their minds and moving to other platforms, and the youth in particular aren't joining or supporting the ANC like they used to. All over the country, even in ANC strongholds, there are voting shifts towards the opposition, and the ANC only has gains in very few areas.

Granted, people who have voted for the ANC their entire life and see the party as the lifeblood of the country will continue voting for them. Rural areas remain especially loyal. But that's changing too, just very slowly.
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"youth" are on board with the ruling party. They were just given mahala tertiary education.
 
ambroseg1 said:
"youth" are on board with the ruling party. They were just given mahala tertiary education.
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Not necessarily. Fees Must Fall failed to decisively change the minds of students (and there's still the possibility that it was orchestrated by the Guptas), and these young adults are aware of issues facing government like corruption, failing SOEs, missing tax collections, and so on. The class of my little brother, who matriculated last year, knows that there's no money for free education, becase there's no way it's going to make it that far and not break down irrepairably.

And they read the same headlines we do in the news, they know we are appalling when it comes to maths literacy on a global scale. They know the job market is crowded and living costs are increasing. They're not going to vote ANC suddenly because they promise free education, because they're sceptical that it will even be kept.

Tander said:
Perhaps. I guess 2016 showed us this trend. However in my mind = Cyril winning, means ANC wins 2019. Maybe its not as easy as that.
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It al depends on how the ANC handles Zuma and the Guptas moving forward. They can't afford to turn a blind eye to corruption that has been made clearly evident in the courts and the newspapers. I was talking to some workers at the PE harbour last month, and one of them commented that they can't fathom who needs so much money, and why - why take it all when the people need good clinics and when their schools are overcrowded and need teachers. They can't even imagine how much money the Guptas have in comparison to what they take home in a week.

And more people still are talking about bribery and corruption, wondering if that's all that you need to do to get ahead in this country. Bribe the right people and buy off the politicians and you're set. No hard work needs to be done to become rich, you just become a criminal.
 
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I’m hearing from quite reliable sources that there are rumours of a recall of the entire cabinet and JZ.

That would be what the cabinet would look like:

Sent as received

The immediate recalling of Jacob Zuma

President - Cyril Ramaphosa (M, GP)
Deputy President - David Mabuza (M,Mp)
Minister in the Presidency - Joel Net****enze (M, Limp)
Women - Baleka Mbete (F, KZN/EC/WC)
Agriculture - Thulas Nxesi (M, EC)
Arts & Culture - Dipuo Letsatsi Duba (F, Limp)
Basic Education - Angie Motshekga (F, GP)
Communications - Jackson Mthembu (M,Mp)
Cooperative Governance - Mondli Gungubela (M, GP/EC)
Defence & Mil Veterans - Nosiviwe Mapisa Nqakula / Thabang Makwetla*
Economic Development - Enoch Godongwane (M, EC)
Energy - Senzo Mchunu (M, KZN)/ Dikeledi Magadzi (depending on the SG issue)
Environmental Affairs - David Mahlobo (M, Mp)
Finance - Zweli Mkhize (M, KZN)
Health - Aaron Motsoaledi (M, Limp)
Higher Education - Blade Nzimande (M, KZN)
Home Affairs - Malusi Gigaba (M, KZN)
Human Settlements - Kenny Moimang (M, NC)
International Relations - Lindiwe Sisulu (F, GP/EC)
Justice - Mathole Motshekga (M, Limp)/ Andries Nel*
Labour - Thandi Modise (F, NW)
Mineral Resources - Ebrahim Rasool (M, WC)
Police - Jeff Radebe (M, KZN)
Public Enterprises - Pravin Gordhan (M, KZN)
Public Services - Ayanda Dlodlo (F, GP)
Public Works - Thoko Didiza (F, KZN)
Rural Development - Gugile Nkwinti (M, EC)
Science & Technology - Naledi Pandor (F, GP)
Small Business Development - Lindiwe Zulu (F, KZN)
Social Development - Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma (F, KZN)
Sport & Recreation - Fikile Mbalula (M, FS)
State Security - Bheki Cele (M, KZN)
Telecommunications - Stella Ndabeni Abrahams (F, EC)
Tourism - Derek Hanekom (M, GP)
Trade & Industry - Rob Davies (M, GP)
Transport - Ebrahim Patel (M, GP)
 
f2wohf said:
President - Cyril Ramaphosa (M, GP)
Deputy President - David Mabuza (M,Mp)
Minister in the Presidency - Joel Net****enze (M, Limp)
Women - Baleka Mbete (F, KZN/EC/WC)
Agriculture - Thulas Nxesi (M, EC)
Arts & Culture - Dipuo Letsatsi Duba (F, Limp)
Basic Education - Angie Motshekga (F, GP)
Communications - Jackson Mthembu (M,Mp)
Cooperative Governance - Mondli Gungubela (M, GP/EC)
Defence & Mil Veterans - Nosiviwe Mapisa Nqakula / Thabang Makwetla*
Economic Development - Enoch Godongwane (M, EC)
Energy - Senzo Mchunu (M, KZN)/ Dikeledi Magadzi (depending on the SG issue)
Environmental Affairs - David Mahlobo (M, Mp)
Finance - Zweli Mkhize (M, KZN)
Health - Aaron Motsoaledi (M, Limp)
Higher Education - Blade Nzimande (M, KZN)
Home Affairs - Malusi Gigaba (M, KZN)
Human Settlements - Kenny Moimang (M, NC)
International Relations - Lindiwe Sisulu (F, GP/EC)
Justice - Mathole Motshekga (M, Limp)/ Andries Nel*
Labour - Thandi Modise (F, NW)
Mineral Resources - Ebrahim Rasool (M, WC)
Police - Jeff Radebe (M, KZN)
Public Enterprises - Pravin Gordhan (M, KZN)
Public Services - Ayanda Dlodlo (F, GP)
Public Works - Thoko Didiza (F, KZN)
Rural Development - Gugile Nkwinti (M, EC)
Science & Technology - Naledi Pandor (F, GP)
Small Business Development - Lindiwe Zulu (F, KZN)
Social Development - Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma (F, KZN)
Sport & Recreation - Fikile Mbalula (M, FS)
State Security - Bheki Cele (M, KZN)
Telecommunications - Stella Ndabeni Abrahams (F, EC)
Tourism - Derek Hanekom (M, GP)
Trade & Industry - Rob Davies (M, GP)
Transport - Ebrahim Patel (M, GP)
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All the ones in bold are just disasters moved from important offices to less important ones.

With exception to some in this list (Gordhan for one), nothing here actually fixes anything.
 
CataclysmZA said:
All the ones in bold are just disasters moved from important offices to less important ones.

With exception to some in this list (Gordhan for one), nothing here actually fixes anything.
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What do you have against Mkhize?

The issue is that they have to do with the factions and the NEC. As incompetent as they are, these people have given their support and could also withdraw it, so nothing will happen without them.
 
f2wohf said:
What do you have against Mkhize?
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Mkhize supports the idea of government inserting itself more into the affairs of small business, including a reform to procurement processes to pay "entrepeneurs" more often, and he's quite close to Zuma. His campaign went on the whole "unity" and "don't pick slates" message, whilst the ANC was gearing people to back the NDZ slate all along.

I just don't trust the guy. Something in there doesn't look right. It would have been better to see Nene back in the hot seat.
 
I think the chances of a recall are very good before Feb.
I would also like to see Ramaphosa as president if that happens, no caretaker president.
Interestingly the constitution will still allow him to serve 2 full terms after the next elections should he take over now. So he can theoretically serve as president for nearly 12 years.
 
CataclysmZA said:
Mkhize supports the idea of government inserting itself more into the affairs of small business, including a reform to procurement processes to pay "entrepeneurs" more often, and he's quite close to Zuma. His campaign went on the whole "unity" and "don't pick slates" message, whilst the ANC was gearing people to back the NDZ slate all along.

I just don't trust the guy. Something in there doesn't look right. It would have been better to see Nene back in the hot seat.
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Every European government has done that for years (the payment timeframes) and it is a good thing for small businesses.

If you want less interference from the government, I would suggest to not vote ANC and to not expect from the ANC.

The minister of finance is not an independent entity, he does what the president/cabinet says. He can refuse to do it but he cannot do something against the cabinet’s will.

As long as Ramaphosa is there, I’m not too worried about who is in the seat, rather about how the brain drain at National Treasury and SARS stops.
 
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