Rain and storm for Cpt

[genetic]

Good - get your rains, but keep your cold temperatures there - I don't want it anywhere near GP

GP doesn't get our rains or temperatures in winter.

You guys are p*es cold and dry. The Western Cape has neither.

 

[Segg]

GP doesn't get our rains or temperatures in winter.

You guys are p*es cold and dry. The Western Cape has neither.

I've been loving the warm weather lately it was those damn fronts a few weeks ago that dropped us

The high pressure needs to keep its ridge nicely over the FS to keep that incoming cold air away from me I would like to run in temperatures not below 15 this week

 

[Gordon_R]

I've been loving the warm weather lately it was those damn fronts a few weeks ago that dropped us

The high pressure needs to keep its ridge nicely over the FS to keep that incoming cold air away from me I would like to run in temperatures not below 15 this week

View attachment 869815

The fronts are moving pretty fast, that chart only covers 3-5 days ahead. The upcoming storm is definitely not visible yet, and will only start developing much closer to the time. This is why the models are still fluctuating, and the forecasts are uncertain...

Edit: The outlook will only become clear around Tues 7th, when a well developed system will be approaching from the SW of CT. This rapid evolution is called 'explosive' cyclogenesis, which is why we sometimes have intense storms, but also why they are hard to predict in detail before the time:

 

[Gordon_R]

The models are still uncertain, but there is good potential for widespread snow on Fri 10th:



Source:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3days/snow
https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/southafrica/next3to6days/snow

 

[Geoff.D]

SAWS long term seasonal forecasts show a good chance of above-normal rainfall in WC at the cost of the rest of us.

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

i was not expecting rain today
got soaked proper this morning 9am over Sir Lowries Pass all the way from Grabouw on my bike

It was clear skies at the dam when i left this morning

 

[MirageF1]

i was not expecting rain today
got soaked proper this morning 9am over Sir Lowries Pass all the way from Grabouw on my bike

It was clear skies at the dam when i left this morning

Yip, was drizzling and soft rain for a good few hours this am, Table Mountain side this am...

 

[Agent_Smith]

Looks like we're in for a deluge or two this coming Thursday and Friday.

 

[Gordon_R]

SAWS update on the coming storm:

Special weather alert: Snow, heavy rain and strong winds to lash Western and Northern Cape | News24

The Western Cape and parts of the Northern Cape are set to be battered by heavy rains, gusting winds and a possible dusting of snow, the South African Weather Service says.

www.news24.com

Please note that this is a warning, not a prediction, since the models are still uncertain. Don't come whining if the wind speeds don't live up to your expectations!

 

[dualmeister]

.

 

[saor]

Looks like we're in for a deluge or two this coming Thursday and Friday.

Cool. Morning run at the forest all to myself.

 

[backstreetboy]

Raining here in Paarl. Great news. Tired of wearing shorts.

 

[CamiKaze]

Raining here in Paarl. Great news. Tired of wearing shorts.

Strange, not raining in Wellington.

 

[Naks]

Coming down pretty hard here in Stellenbosch

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Also raining hard in Constantia! Damn!

 

[Geoff.D]

.

View attachment 870713

A Friday storm?

 

[Geoff.D]

SAWS update on the coming storm:

Special weather alert: Snow, heavy rain and strong winds to lash Western and Northern Cape | News24

The Western Cape and parts of the Northern Cape are set to be battered by heavy rains, gusting winds and a possible dusting of snow, the South African Weather Service says.

www.news24.com

Please note that this is a warning, not a prediction, since the models are still uncertain. Don't come whining if the wind speeds don't live up to your expectations!

Pretty safe prediction, all the macro indications are in place. The preceding small front did not attract much attention from anyone. Not even SAWS seemed to take it too seriously, yet it is currently dumping quite a bit of water on the CT area.

 

[Gordon_R]

Recent model runs indicate a powerful secondary front developing on Fri 10th, with all the associated wind, rain and snow. The forecasts may still change, but there is no doubt that the warnings are justified:



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

N.B. Another significant cold-front is due on Mon 13th.

 

[genetic]

I see the city had their trucks clearing out storm water drains all over today - Milnerton, Century City, Paarden Eiland... Probably prepping for the storm later this week.

 

[Geoff.D]

Mortymoose, duststorms for you before the rain arrives!
Strong signs of a cut off low forming.
Last time one this strong formed Laingsburg got flooded.

WC, southern NC in for it in the next few days, late Thursday, early Friday onwards into Mondy/Tuesday.