Rain and storm for Cpt

Gordon_R

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I've been loving the warm weather lately :sneaky: it was those damn fronts a few weeks ago that dropped us

The high pressure needs to keep its ridge nicely over the FS to keep that incoming cold air away from me :p I would like to run in temperatures not below 15 this week :laugh:

View attachment 869815
The fronts are moving pretty fast, that chart only covers 3-5 days ahead. The upcoming storm is definitely not visible yet, and will only start developing much closer to the time. This is why the models are still fluctuating, and the forecasts are uncertain...

Edit: The outlook will only become clear around Tues 7th, when a well developed system will be approaching from the SW of CT. This rapid evolution is called 'explosive' cyclogenesis, which is why we sometimes have intense storms, but also why they are hard to predict in detail before the time:

gfs_africa_084_1000_500_thick[20200707_1800_84Z_crop].gif
 
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Geoff.D

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SAWS long term seasonal forecasts show a good chance of above-normal rainfall in WC at the cost of the rest of us.

1593949726950.png
 

Papa Smurf

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i was not expecting rain today
got soaked proper this morning 9am over Sir Lowries Pass all the way from Grabouw on my bike

It was clear skies at the dam when i left this morning
 

MirageF1

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i was not expecting rain today
got soaked proper this morning 9am over Sir Lowries Pass all the way from Grabouw on my bike

It was clear skies at the dam when i left this morning
Yip, was drizzling and soft rain for a good few hours this am, Table Mountain side this am...
 

Gordon_R

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Geoff.D

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SAWS update on the coming storm:

Please note that this is a warning, not a prediction, since the models are still uncertain. Don't come whining if the wind speeds don't live up to your expectations!
Pretty safe prediction, all the macro indications are in place. The preceding small front did not attract much attention from anyone. Not even SAWS seemed to take it too seriously, yet it is currently dumping quite a bit of water on the CT area.
 

genetic

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I see the city had their trucks clearing out storm water drains all over today - Milnerton, Century City, Paarden Eiland... Probably prepping for the storm later this week.
 

Geoff.D

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Mortymoose, duststorms for you before the rain arrives!
Strong signs of a cut off low forming.
Last time one this strong formed Laingsburg got flooded.

WC, southern NC in for it in the next few days, late Thursday, early Friday onwards into Mondy/Tuesday.
 
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Chris_the_Brit

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I see the latest predictions are that the significant rainfall will come on Thursday night / Friday morning.
 

Mortymoose

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Mortymoose, duststorms for you before the rain arrives!
Strong signs of a cut off low forming.
Last time one this strong formed Laingsburg got flooded.

WC, southern NC in for it in the next few days, late Thursday, early Friday onwards into Mondy/Tuesday.
On it, wind already howling this evening with bitter cold weather, which usually indicates a warm day tomorrow.... wind will be NNe of the desert, samd gonna blow.... might be good for a braai...
 
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