A lot of middle class voters voted for him in 2021, thinking it was an alternative to the DA.
Then went the populist route and joined RET in playing the race card, and being openly misleading and racist. Who tf wants to vote a guy who hates you. Even the wife donor struggled at times to defend Herman's positions.
I think ASA ActionSA have alienated their white support base. But they might gain some black votes who this message resonates with.
But the most important reason why they will take a beating, is they still haven't had their elective conference. This doesn't instill confidence in voters, and party members, that the party has enough integrity to elect the best people for the positions.
As long as Herman is running a personality cult that's centred around him, he will never be trusted. It's not far away from being another MK, because he can't let go of his ego to allow others to lead. And probably not even far away from an open revolt as people feel hard done by when Herman points his finger at who must go where, which doesn't help their personal growth either...