SA Politics Thread Part 11: The GNU Normal

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Local updates on the political front.

1. Steenhuisen is safe as leader of the DA as his position will be uncontested (my comment: a bit weird as I think DA has better leaders in its ranks and can grow more. Steenhuisen did exceptionally well to stabilise the DA vote in 2024 despite a more competitive political atmosphere than in 2019.

2. Ashor Sarupen, the current deputy finance minister, looks like a shoe-in for the DA federal leader as he has built wide support across the DA and has locked up support from Helen Zille. Apparently the Steenhuisen faction have Dean Macpherson but he has numerous weaknesses including that he is in Cabinet (so it's hard for him be federal chairman as well) and has not built support beyond his KZN base. I suspect he will drop out soon enough.

3. According to Peter Bruce's sources, SA is working on a trade deal where there are positive developments and SA might get their tariffs reduced to 15%. According to his sources, the US are worried about what Cyril's extremely fragile political position and believe their tariffs might hasten his demise with large increases in unemployment etc. so they'd rather reduce tariffs to reduce the negative effects on the SA economy. The deal might be announced at the UN General Assembly in NY later in September.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Local updates on the political front.

1. Steenhuisen is safe as leader of the DA as his position will be uncontested (my comment: a bit weird as I think DA has better leaders in its ranks and can grow more. Steenhuisen did exceptionally well to stabilise the DA vote in 2024 despite a more competitive political atmosphere than in 2019.

2. Ashor Sarupen, the current deputy finance minister, looks like a shoe-in for the DA federal leader as he has built wide support across the DA and has locked up support from Helen Zille. Apparently the Steenhuisen faction have Dean Macpherson but he has numerous weaknesses including that he is in Cabinet (so it's hard for him be federal chairman as well) and has not built support beyond his KZN base. I suspect he will drop out soon enough.

3. According to Peter Bruce's sources, SA is working on a trade deal where there are positive developments and SA might get their tariffs reduced to 15%. According to his sources, the US are worried about what Cyril's extremely fragile political position and believe their tariffs might hasten his demise with large increases in unemployment etc. so they'd rather reduce tariffs to reduce the negative effects on the SA economy. The deal might be announced at the UN General Assembly in NY later in September.
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I really hope you are wrong about 3. Having them get out of jail free again would just embolden whatever moron they manage to dredge up to be his successor. The West needs to stop treating africa like toddlers and allow them to feel the consequences of their actions, else they will never learn.
 
TheChamp said:
Same ANC that is broke is able to pay R2000 for a vote?
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Could be a ward councillor paying out his own pocket. Afterall if he gets into the seat he gets a decent sallary
And anyway , what is the diff voting anc/mashaba anyway. They are both anc alligned. Proven by the VAT fiasco
 
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The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Local updates on the political front.

1. Steenhuisen is safe as leader of the DA as his position will be uncontested (my comment: a bit weird as I think DA has better leaders in its ranks and can grow more. Steenhuisen did exceptionally well to stabilise the DA vote in 2024 despite a more competitive political atmosphere than in 2019.
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A pity, but oh well.
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
2. Ashor Sarupen, the current deputy finance minister, looks like a shoe-in for the DA federal leader as he has built wide support across the DA and has locked up support from Helen Zille. Apparently the Steenhuisen faction have Dean Macpherson but he has numerous weaknesses including that he is in Cabinet (so it's hard for him be federal chairman as well) and has not built support beyond his KZN base. I suspect he will drop out soon enough.
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FedEx chair, you mean? Hopefully, he'll be contested.
 
Major Boredom said:
Could be a ward councillor paying out his own pocket. Afterall if he gets into the seat he gets a decent sallary
And anyway , what is the diff voting anc/mashaba anyway. They are both anc alligned. Proven by the VAT fiasco
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Sure that makes even more sense, ward councillors can surely afford that kind of cash.
 
TheChamp said:
Same ANC that is broke is able to pay R2000 for a vote?
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If it looks like propaganda, swims like propaganda and quacks like propaganda, then it probably is propaganda. 🤣

Interesting that this comes after the ANC's big wins in recent by-elections. The same media that gives the 20% DA pony rides wants to aggressively drop the ANC with propaganda.

The ANC is lucky it wasn't made by and doesn't rely on the media like some. The campaigns against the party and party members, especially the incoming president Paul Mashatile are palpable.
 
TheChamp said:
Sure that makes even more sense, ward councillors can surely afford that kind of cash.
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Perhaps its one of your ANC cadre IDT guys, they seem flush with cash. At least when journalists are around.
 
Doing my research for Wednesday's by-elections and I can't see why the ANC would need to bribe voters of this particular ward. It's not a strong (i.e. 70%+) ANC ward for sure, but they have nearly a 20% gap over MK on 2024 provincial ballot. Unlike in KZN, I suspect the MK can't just rely on the Zulu vote to win the ward, even if there are a fair number of Zulus in the ward (as indicated by obtaining 2nd place).

Edit: According to Wazimap, based on 2011 census, 52% of the ward is Zulu but then the MK would have to hope they all vote MK and all turn out, which is a tough ask and basically impossible.
 
TheChamp said:
At this point it's more likely to be a DA benefactor, doing it to spite ActionSA.
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A DA benefactor is paying people to vote ANC to spite ActionSA?

think-about-it-use-your-brain.gif
 
Jam Sandwich said:
R2k buys plenty cabbage. Anc is overspending here.
Hennessy is only R600 odd...
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R2000 is close to the SASSA old age monthly grant that the government expects pensioners to live on. It's a lot of money for a pensioner.
 
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