Nom Chompsky
High Tory
We have two by-elections today - one rather exciting one where the DA will be challenged by the MK in a very marginal ward in eThekwini. A reminder: back in April, the MK won their first metro ward off the DA. The gap between the two parties on the provincial ballot in that ward in 2024 was 9 percentage points - here it is only four percentage points, so it will essentially be game of turnout - who is best at turning out their supporters? Given that the DA has historically struggled to turn out their supporters in by-elections, I will give the edge to MK but I hope to be surprised.
In the other by-election, ANC is seeking to hold a safe seat in their strongest province - Limpopo.
* indicates vote share on the 2024 provincial ballot.
In the other by-election, ANC is seeking to hold a safe seat in their strongest province - Limpopo.
* indicates vote share on the 2024 provincial ballot.
| Province | Ethekwini | Ward | Party | Ward Vote Share (%) |
| KZN | eThekwini | 64 | DA | 40.3* (55.8) |
| MK | 36.3* (--) | |||
| ANC | 9.1* (24.8) | |||
| Limpopo | Ephraim Mogale | 9 | ANC | 65.5 |
| EFF | 27.2 |
