Share Investing Tips For 2013

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Sure



Ditto, although I'm closer to 100%.



Great thanks.

We have apparently been in a bull market since 1999, so "bear" that in mind, the financial crises didnt do too much damage here.

I also have a watch list of shares that I haven't bought yet, some of which have done well.
Think I have enough variety already....

Billiton
Telskommel
Astral
Richemont
Famous brands
EOH
Metair
Sasol
Woolworths
Naspers
Bidvest
 
Alf. I see you have Newgold on your list. I used to trade it and GP in $. Now is not the time as the ZAR is too weak. GP follows EUR/USD and ZAR follows the EURO.
So all gains made in the GP will to a large degree be negated by the USD/ZAR exchange rate. GP goes up and the USD/ZAR goes down. It is difficult to gauge if the ZAR is weak or the $ is strong just by looking at the exchange rates. ie. Did the $ go up or did the ZAR go down?
So I would suggest you leave it alone for now until you know more about $ ZAR price movements.
What say you DJ? What's your input on this? No pissing contest.

I must add that GP normally goes in the opposite direction to equities but has been known to swop and go the same way. This cost me around R130k. Had a 10 lot trade and no SL. Got a MC and lost all. I have since left gold alone.
 
A good site for graphs can be found here. http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks
You must add j.j after say, CML. You must in the box write CMLJ.J for it to recognise it as a JSE stock.
Then click on "Charts". This will give you the chart with timeframes of your choice.
Then click on "Comparisons" and fill in the stock to compare to and also add the j.j.
Good for history and comparisons to other stocks.
 
Alf. I see you have Newgold on your list. I used to trade it and GP in $. Now is not the time as the ZAR is too weak. GP follows EUR/USD and ZAR follows the EURO.
So all gains made in the GP will to a large degree be negated by the USD/ZAR exchange rate. GP goes up and the USD/ZAR goes down. It is difficult to gauge if the ZAR is weak or the $ is strong just by looking at the exchange rates. ie. Did the $ go up or did the ZAR go down?
So I would suggest you leave it alone for now until you know more about $ ZAR price movements.
What say you DJ? What's your input on this? No pissing contest.

Asked and answered in a previous thread already...
 
Thanx Marco, very useful

Now to get the Relative Strength Index or Indicator of a stock.
Go to sharenet website and above in the "Quick Share" box, type in the share, ie. CML " enter"
A page will open with a chart for the day and other info on CML. Take note of the PE. Price to Earnings ratio of 12 is "normal" Some stocks thrive on 30+. As the stock price increases so does the PE making the stock more expensive but if the Earnings increase with the next set of results, the PE ratio will drop.
So with good stocks, the PE will increase and then decrease when the 2 yearly results come out.
You will see that CML has a PE of 19.6. This is high but as the next set of results are expected to be good, it has a Forward PE of 14.6.

On the top LHS, click on "Technical Charts". A new page will open with the chart of CML. Here you can get indicators and change the time frames. On the bottom of the chart you will see the RSI graph.
Above 70 is overbought so don't buy in that area. Around 40 is a good indicator to buy at as it is oversold.

These are all the technicals that you need if you know nothing about charting.
 
Thanx Marco, very useful

Above 70 is overbought so don't buy in that area. Around 40 is a good indicator to buy at as it is oversold.

These are all the technicals that you need if you know nothing about charting.

Absolute fscking bullschit! This is not a tradeable rule and the second part is complete nonsense.

Christ you are a dangerous moron in front of a keyboard...
 
DJ. Calm down my friend. You are good with technical analysis and charting and I respect you for that so please give your advice as to choosing stocks with particular attention to those that don't use tech charts. You have not given simple advice so I chose to do so.
What is wrong with using the cheap/expensive method ie PE Ratio with the overbought/oversold method ie the RSI? Please explain.

I use this method as a starting point to buy into stocks and have done very well.
Don't just attack me. Explain why I am wrong.
 
He can show you how to click on buttons but for the love of fsck do not listen to any sort of analysis or "rules" he spews forth...

Don't worry, I make up my own mind, I was just thanking him for the useful link.
 
DJ. Calm down my friend. You are good with technical analysis and charting and I respect you for that so please give your advice as to choosing stocks with particular attention to those that don't use tech charts. You have not given simple advice so I chose to do so.
What is wrong with using the cheap/expensive method ie PE Ratio with the overbought/oversold method ie the RSI? Please explain.

I use this method as a starting point to buy into stocks and have done very well.
Don't just attack me. Explain why I am wrong.

Because RSI is an indicator. You need to learn what an indicator is - I explained it in my first post. It indicates a potential. It is not a rule. The majority of indicators alone prove absolutely nothing. When one reads RSI, you are looking for divergence, not "above 70 and below 30". You need to be able to confirm indicators. RSI alone is not an oversold and overbought indicator. Let's forget for a second that RSI is based on periods which you fail to realise or point out, an RSI of 20 will not swing a stock. No professional will use RSI as a buy or sell rule, but rather to quantify divergence. It may indicate a potential oversold scenario but does not prove that there is no more downside to be had. An instrument can trade well below a 30 RSI for some time, and it also does not indicate upside potential of a stock. It is therefore in no way an indicator of being overbought or oversold, as is often touted.

Let me give you an example here. Let's say you overlay a 14 day RSI. Now a stock trades at 29 on the RSI scale. The RSI cannot see beyond the 14 days covered, therefore advising people like you have to buy in supposedly "oversold" territory would mean that this stock has upside potential now. This is simply not true if the stock has historical resistance levels and is trading around these levels. There may still be further downside potential of the stock and you have found yourself buying at the wrong time. You will also never ever use RSI alone, and this is what you re punting. You claim that PE is the other indicator but it isn't, as PE is not a technical indicator. Therefore you are suggesting that RSI alone as a technical indicator is enough to base a buy and sell decision on. This is utter tripe, marco. If anything, you'd absolutely want a momentum indicator as well, and you'd certainly want to monitor divergence of the patterns to confirm if a swing is taking place or if it is simply a volatility movement.

In fact most traders will wait until a stock moves outside of the range you're proposing to get involved. This is on a conservative basis, albeit. You'll also find that strong stocks remain supposedly overbought for quite some time, and vica versa.

RSI is used, and I repeat this for all technical indicators, to help to confirm a trend. It does not indicate a trend. What you are advising here is dangerous bullschit once again and will cost people money if they adopt this strategy. By continuing to advise that this indicator alone is all that you need is even more bullschit from you, an even more dangerous one. When using an RSI you should certainly have a MACD and bollinger band indicator present as well as horizontal support and resistance levels. Now you can determine whether real divergence is taking place; whether the pattern suggests a movement; whether a trend is potentially on the cards and you can confirm them; whether a trend is confirmed etc etc etc. Placing your trust in RSI means that you're opening yourself up to huge risk as false signals are a constant problem with RSI indicators. This is why trading RSI alone is incredibly risky. You'd have to understand the mathematics involved to determine when to consider it and when not to, as it doesn't take into account up and down days, so a little bit of upside volatility can make it incredibly unreliable. You also need to know what periods to use and why. You also need to correlate the RSI movement with price movements as there might be consolidation points to consider. Any sort of stair-stepping in the price is a strong trending indicator, but no RSI alone will confirm this. For all you know it is in oversold territory but has already broken through previous support levels. Breaking through this will create a new resistance level and proposing that someone go long here is ludicrous. However that is what you are proposing, as you consider RSI alone to be the only indicator required - you will cost someone a lot of money adopting this strategy.

Here is a quote of just a few of the weaknesses:

Weaknesses: Doesn't take into account how many up days vs. down days there are in the range, so one single big decline could offset a large number of gain periods and vica versa. The RSI is also notoriously weak in strongly trending markets because it can remain oversold/overbought for a long time during strong trends. Avoid using RSI in strongly trending markets unless trading in the direction of the trend.

So please for the love of all that is holy STOP ADVISING PEOPLE ON THINGS YOU KNOW SWEET FSCKALL ABOUT!
 
We not talking Trading here DJ. We talking Long Term investing. Buying in the dips and when a stock is oversold and cheap is obviously the best time and my method works. Would you buy a stock with a PE of 25 and the RSI is at it's top cycle of say 100? Of course you wouldn't.
At no stage did I say one must buy at 40 RSI as it has bottomed. I'm saying that it is Oversold. It may still go further down.

Subscribing to expensive charting and studying the different Fibronacci retractments and Bolinger Bollocks stuff is too time consuming for non active investors.
Also, I said that the PE and RSI are the only INDICATORS you will need. You must first have chosen the stock from fundamentals, prospects etc.

Google PE RATIO and RSI and make your own minds up.
 
Also, I said that the PE and RSI are the only INDICATORS you will need.

PE is not a technical indicator and you are implying that RSI alone is all that is needed on this basis. I have provided numerous reasons as to why this is bullschit but if they have whooshed over your head as usual then so be it. Others will hopefully be able to understand them. RSI is not an indicator of an oversold or overbought scenario and does not indicate upside nor downside potential. PE ratios do not indicate upside or downside potential either. Basing a strategy on these two metrics is flawed in every possible sense. They can help to identify stocks worth looking at but further refinement is needed if you want to have an understanding of future price movements and entry points, as well as defining exit points too, within a certain risk criteria...
 
We not talking Trading here DJ. We talking Long Term investing. Buying in the dips and when a stock is oversold and cheap is obviously the best time and my method works. Would you buy a stock with a PE of 25 and the RSI is at it's top cycle of say 100? Of course you wouldn't.
At no stage did I say one must buy at 40 RSI as it has bottomed. I'm saying that it is Oversold. It may still go further down.

Subscribing to expensive charting and studying the different Fibronacci retractments and Bolinger Bollocks stuff is too time consuming for non active investors.
Also, I said that the PE and RSI are the only INDICATORS you will need. You must first have chosen the stock from fundamentals, prospects etc.

Google PE RATIO and RSI and make your own minds up.

I think he's explaining how it works because you asked him to.

He's not telling people what to do.
 
OK. I should have added that the PE should be compared to the sector PE. If it is lower than the sector PE's then it is cheaper than those stocks in that sector.
 
OK. I should have added that the PE should be compared to the sector PE. If it is lower than the sector PE's then it is cheaper than those stocks in that sector.

The term is PE relative, and it would be one of many things to look at.
 
Well run treasury function.

For everyone else:

Pinnacle are on an acquisition drive at the moment at the behest of the shareholders. I'd be wary in the short-term of swing trading Pinnacle unless you can short it (note, not investing which is wholly different) as technicals point to there being a correction soon, unless of course clarity on their earlier cautionary is released and is positive. For those of you who'd like a simple explanation and some help in what I'm talking about, take a look at their simple moving average, and overlay some bollinger band indicators (these help to confirm a trend, they do not predict them - this is why they are called indicators). You can quickly spot their correlation with the moving average, and is quite typical of how traders will trade price and technicals. In simplistic terms, a bollinger band will help you to determine price - the top end being expensive and the low end being cheap (in incredibly simplistic terms). Many traders will sell on the moving average though (iow when spot and MA intercede). You will notice that historically when the price breaks through the top end of the bollinger band and flattens, it is followed by a protracted weakening of the stock. This is precisely how they are poised at the moment, so I'd personally expect to see some short-term weakening of the stock, however long-term technicals look good. Looking at the OHLC, this seems to be the case as well. Also note how they trade each time they they break through new price points, especially all-time highs. Monitor the volumes - higher volumes do not mean a higher interest in the stock necessarily - it could be market makers maintaining their volatility ratios and it might indicate additional volatility, but again, you confirm these with technical indicators.

But this is purely based on technical data. When one makes a decision to buy or sell, it is based on various metrics. Technicals form a large part of that for many people, and often it is quite nice to find a stock like Pinnacle that trades in fairly predictable patterns. But these patterns can change on a whim, and with a cautionary statement out, one has to keep an ear to the ground about M&A activity and constantly watch SENS announcements. You also have to factor in currency risk, financials and associated metrics, as well as director dealings, index movements, futures market, analyst forecasts and industry news. These sorts of metrics are what will make you a good investor. Becoming an expert in certain companies or industries will make you a very successful investor, and even trader.

So with regards to Pinnacle, I'd suggest possibly holding out on buying in the short-term to see if the downward trend is confirmed. If it is, then monitor the bollinger bands to see when it reaches the traditional low-end of the pricing range - once reached, monitor volatility, use candlestick charting to determine the bottom price, overlay RSI and confirm when the stock swings upward. A single day's trade of positive movement does not a trend make. Don't become a victim to greed if you're looking to invest for the long-run. All you're trying to do is determine a safe point at which to enter the stock - one at which you can maximise returns.

Note that the technical example I provided above is simply an example. There is never any guarantee that a stock will trade predictably, no matter how much analysis you perform...



Digital TV is not happening in June. You can thank me for the headsup any time. The spec isn't even agreed upon yet and all parties are neck-deep in litigation. It is not happening anytime soon. Don't jump on the Ellies bandwagon for digital TV reasons just yet, but that's not to say they're not a decent stock to get into now...

Looking back DJ. You talking about Pinnacle Point and I'm talking Pinnacle (PNC). Two different Co's.
PNC had a SENS yesterday as required by JSE regulations that stated that their increase in HEPS is 16-22% unaudited for March release. Good ain't it?
Ellie. Made about 300% the past year and the PE remains low. Still good for much more growth. Digital TV in June. This will be the stock of the year.
Perhaps not the DT Box, but the their other electrical stuff. I predicted this to become the stock of the year and look at it now. Cash probs. Yes, but their products will get them clear of this. No divi will help it. Is it too late to get in DJ?

CML. My old favourite. A massive increase of R92B in assets under management last year. Directors buying shares and vesting shares instead of cash as bonuses to fund managers that outperformed indexes. Is this another ELI?

I respect your knowledge DJ. No pissing contest. Just asking your opinion on these stocks.
 
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I have told you before that digital TV is not happening in June. Stop throwing your money at it on that basis...
 
Looking back DJ. You talking about Pinnacle Point and I'm talking Pinnacle (PNC). Two different Co's.
PNC had a SENS yesterday as required by JSE regulations that stated that their increase in HEPS is 16-22% unaudited for March release. Good ain't it?
Ellie. Made about 300% the past year and the PE remains low. Still good for much more growth. Digital TV in June. This will be the stock of the year.
Perhaps not the DT Box, but the their other electrical stuff. I predicted this to become the stock of the year and look at it now. Cash probs. Yes, but their products will get them clear of this. No divi will help it. Is it too late to get in DJ?

CML. My old favourite. A massive increase of R92B in assets under management last year. Directors buying shares and vesting shares instead of cash as bonuses to fund managers that outperformed indexes. Is this another ELI?

Pinnacle point is suspended and under liquidation, so you can't buy it.
And I'm sure he's aware of their background.

I'm quite sure he knows what PNC is.
 
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