Share Investing Tips For 2013

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Well this is a Share Tips thread is it not? How's my good old CML doing? How's ELI doing? I had no charts to predict those, so I used my good old fundamentals of Past History and Future Prospects system. Works great.
Calm down DJ. Count to 10 before you diss this.

So what is the strategy that works so well? The strategy I am currently using is to buy shares that show a high rating looking at metrics such as consistency and predictability of financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors (backward looking analysis). The shares must also show a high rating in metrics computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, very highly rated Corporate Bond Rates, and risk (forward looking analysis).
 
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DJ... said:
Yip. Best to ignore the nonsense, like looking at companies with high corporate bond rates...LOL. That would put them on the high yield status - not sure he realises what he is saying 90% of the time...
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Then explain why CML and ELI has been the BEST performers using the above system. Sour grapes me thinks. And you guys following DJ as if he is your GOD must surely feel foolish now. Check the performance of these 2 stocks before you diss them.

CML will continue to do well for many years as they have done before. They have never had a correction since inception.
 
DJ has now been thinking for a long time as how to answer to this. I don't think he can. My pics are most certainly the tops. No bolingers, fibs, bollocks, or any sma's. Just plain fundamentals.

DJ is my leader WTF
 
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marco said:
Then explain why CML and ELI has been the BEST performers using the above system.
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See you're going down this path because you still don't understand what it is you said, and why it is wrong. Oh I see you've edited the post to say highly rated corporate bond rates. Well still - wrong. Rates are not rated. And you;re referring to the coupon, mr so called trader.

The dig was not about your stock picks, but once again, your rationale and inferred advice that went along with it...
 
marco said:
Then explain why CML and ELI has been the BEST performers using the above system. Sour grapes me thinks. And you guys following DJ as if he is your GOD must surely feel foolish now. Check the performance of these 2 stocks before you diss them.

CML will continue to do well for many years as they have done before. They have never had a correction since inception.
Click to expand...

afaik you haven't bought Ellies yet, and around July last year you sold your CML shares when you had a panic attack.
So you'll be paying a fortune in cgt this year for that one.
You then bought CML back again at a higher price as well as PNC, and later MTA.

So...
  • MTA and PNC you only bought about 6 months ago, not years ago.
  • Ellies you probably haven't bought yet.
  • CML gives you panic attacks.
  • You still struggle with return calculations.


I reckon the anticipation of completing your SARS return this year must be keeping you awake at night.

But you are good at picking good stocks in bull markets.
I'll give you that. :)
 
alf101 said:
afaik you haven't bought Ellies yet, and around July last year you sold your CML shares when you had a panic attack.
So you'll be paying a fortune in cgt this year for that one.
You then bought CML back again at a higher price as well as PNC, and later MTA.

So...
  • MTA and PNC you only bought about 6 months ago, not years ago.
  • Ellies you probably haven't bought yet.
  • CML gives you panic attacks.
  • You still struggle with return calculations.


I reckon the anticipation of completing your SARS return this year must be keeping you awake at night.

But you are good at picking good stocks in bull markets.
I'll give you that. :)
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Any fool can pick good stocks in a bull market. Yes. I did sell CML after the less than expected results last year. And yes. I did buy back in at a loss, but I am an active investor and will do so again to protect my money.
I have not bought ELI as I don't have spare cash.
 
marco said:
Any fool can pick good stocks in a bull market. Yes. I did sell CML after the less than expected results last year. And yes. I did buy back in at a loss, but I am an active investor and will do so again to protect my money.
I have not bought ELI as I don't have spare cash.
Click to expand...

I don't know what you use to do your personal finance or portfolio return calculation, but I can recommend MS Money to that for you.


Its free these days, bit of a learning curve, but then you have time.
http://www.microsoft.com/en-za/download/details.aspx?id=20738
 
DJ... said:
See you're going down this path because you still don't understand what it is you said, and why it is wrong. Oh I see you've edited the post to say highly rated corporate bond rates. Well still - wrong. Rates are not rated. And you;re referring to the coupon, mr so called trader.

The dig was not about your stock picks, but once again, your rationale and inferred advice that went along with it...
Click to expand...

The OP did ask for stock picks and the reason for the picks. Perhaps my financial jargon is lacking but my stock picks ain't.
And stop bringing up Trader. I stopped that long time ago as I was not very successful at it. I did say that I lost a huge amount on Gold. I AM A BAD TRADER?
 
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DJ... said:
See you're going down this path because you still don't understand what it is you said, and why it is wrong. Oh I see you've edited the post to say highly rated corporate bond rates. Well still - wrong. Rates are not rated. And you;re referring to the coupon, mr so called trader.
The dig was not about your stock picks, but once again, your rationale and inferred advice that went along with it...
Click to expand...

Read it again. Bonds are rated from AAA to Junk. That is why it said "highly rated" corporate bond rates.
I meant to erase that part as it is not applicable to this thread.
 
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marco said:
Read it again. Bonds are rated from AAA to Junk. That is why it said "highly rated" corporate bond rates.
I meant to erase that part as it is not applicable to this thread.
Click to expand...

Again, the rates are not rated. Please read up on how the fixed income market works before you go down this path of arguing about more subjects that you know nothing about. I have been actively involved in the fixed income market for years and you trying to argue this market with me will be just like sucking eggs. Please just stop discussing things that you know nothing about unless you are willing to learn. The infuriating thing is that you believe that you know it all and argue with people far more educated on these subjects, and then shift the goal posts when you're wrong or stop posting altogether.

You are wrong about coupons being rated. A coupon is derived primarily based on the rating, and this is completely different to the coupon being rated. Moreover it really shouldn't be forming an investment decision necessarily. What value are you going to derive from analysing corporate bond coupon rates? Zilch. The only time you'd actively monitor these two is when looking for arbitrage in convertible bonds (but even then you're looking more at trading price than coupon), or informing a convertible bond purchase.

You are simply discussing things that you know nothing about - once again...
 
FFS. Any fool knows that Rates cannot be Rated. Read it slowly. Corporate BONDS are Rated according to the ability of the Co to pay it back.
I will google this and come back here to irritate you more.
 
DJ... said:
They have in the past, but there must have been a withdrawal - can't find it here from home nor on the net - very odd. There was a 3rd Jan cautionary based on M&A activity which I certainly saw for PNC. Contact their IR and ask as I read the cautionary statement myself...:confused:
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Yes. You will be confused. It WAS Pinnacle Point. They had 2 or 3. I remember reading the SENS and posted it on ShareChat thinking it was Pinnacle. They soon corrected me. The SENS did not state PNC but "Pinnacle Point". My brain did not register "Point".
This must be what happened to you too.
Can you please rewrite your technical opinion on PNC again.
 
marco said:
Yes. You will be confused. It WAS Pinnacle Point. They had 2 or 3. I remember reading the SENS and posted it on ShareChat thinking it was Pinnacle. They soon corrected me. The SENS did not state PNC but "Pinnacle Point". My brain did not register "Point".
This must be what happened to you too.
Can you please rewrite your technical opinion on PNC again.
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You're right. I found Pinnacle Point. Please note that the charting does not change. I used PNC for the charting. Apologies for the mix up, but PNC are on an acquisition drive nonetheless. The only thing that changes is the "careful of the cautionary bit"...
 
Thanks for that. You have obviously studied financial stuff and are more clued up than me. I studied Industrial Electronic Eng. but the stress got to me so I bought a business that went bang during the financial crises in 2007/8.
Sorry for the banter, but hear me out.
I had just over R1M so bought a small shop for peanuts and decided to study trading and investing on the net. Forex trading was a buzz word at the time so I funded a R150K account and made good profits to R185K then made a bad trade with Gold just at the time it started to follow equities instead of it's normal trend going opposite equities.
Kept lowering my SL thinking it will reverse to the $2000 mark that was predicted. Got a MC and lost all. My lot was just too big.
Tried trading on SAFEX to make up my loss while still studying investment methods. Made some good gains but mostly due to Garth Mackenzie's advice. You can Google him.
Business not doing too well so I just HAD to get a system or method that would give me an income consistently without drawdowns or at least not many consistent DD's.
Found the method eventually that would work. I posted it as a Copy and Paste. Pity the Bond part was added. I don't do Bonds.
Sold the shop and invested R1M into CML. That was the only stock that fit into the category that I could find.
Good stable gains over years and non volatile. Just what I needed. Good history and great future and fit my strategy to a tee.
I lived off that single stock for 14 months and withdrew R30k pm and my R1M still grew to R1.27M.
This made me think that my strategy of past performance analysis and minimum volatility over long term with looking at future analysis actually works.
I have since bought another shop. Actually it is a Coffee Shop with the gains I made and still had R1M left in CML.
I am by no means bragging. Just sharing my experience with you.
One stock in a portfolio is just too risky so I searched big time for stocks that fit my requirements. Nothing found even though I put all the JSE stocks into my requirement system.
The closest I could find was PNC and MTA. Not as good as CML but bought 25% in each.
They have a great 3 year chart but the 1 year is only around 50%.
Should have stayed with CML but one cannot predict the markets.
 
Thanks for that. You have obviously studied financial stuff and are more clued up than me. I studied Industrial Electronic Eng. but the stress got to me so I bought a business that went bang during the financial crises in 2007/8.
Sorry for the banter, but hear me out.
I had just over R1M so bought a small shop for peanuts and decided to study trading and investing on the net. Forex trading was a buzz word at the time so I funded a R150K account and made good profits to R185K then made a bad trade with Gold just at the time it started to follow equities instead of it's normal trend going opposite equities.
Kept lowering my SL thinking it will reverse to the $2000 mark that was predicted. Got a MC and lost all. My lot was just too big.
Tried trading on SAFEX to make up my loss while still studying investment methods. Made some good gains but mostly due to Garth Mackenzie's advice. You can Google him.
Business not doing too well so I just HAD to get a system or method that would give me an income consistently without drawdowns or at least not many consistent DD's.
Found the method eventually that would work. I posted it as a Copy and Paste. Pity the Bond part was added. I don't do Bonds.
Sold the shop and invested R1M into CML. That was the only stock that fit into the category that I could find.
Good stable gains over years and non volatile. Just what I needed. Good history and great future and fit my strategy to a tee.
I lived off that single stock for 14 months and withdrew R30k pm and my R1M still grew to R1.27M.
This made me think that my strategy of past performance analysis and minimum volatility over long term with looking at future analysis actually works.
I have since bought another shop. Actually it is a Coffee Shop with the gains I made and still had R1M left in CML.
I am by no means bragging. Just sharing my experience with you.
One stock in a portfolio is just too risky so I searched big time for stocks that fit my requirements. Nothing found even though I put all the JSE stocks into my requirement system.
The closest I could find was PNC and MTA. Not as good as CML but bought 25% in each.
They have a great 3 year chart but the 1 year is only around 50%.
Should have stayed with CML but one cannot predict the markets.
 
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