Share Investing Tips For 2013

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I just checked the results now. From the 1'st of Jan.
CML month start till today is 12.84% 55% of my portfolio.
PNC 4.23% Not much but just better than most.
MTA 2.71% Sadly under.
ELI. 13.8% Not invested.
These were my pics.

So far so good. Will see at end 2013.
 
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So what. I have only now checked my portfolio and up R55K in 1 day. And I still have my shop. What did you make today?
 
Interesting, thanks for sharing. Perhaps don't look at my posts as opposing your viewpoint then but as complimentary, and perhaps you can learn a few new techniques and adopt them into your strategy.

Like I have always said to you, my only gripe has been the advice that you have given where clearly you either do not explain yourself properly or you're assuming that your experience can be transposed on to others as a rule, or on occasion you are flat-out wrong. It cannot, and this is why I don't advise people to adopt my strategies either. I cannot make that assumption. You do, and it is dangerous at times.

You don't strike me as a bad bloke, just incredibly stubborn. Admitting that you're wrong isn't admitting defeat, it is opening yourself up to learning. I happily admit when I'm wrong (like I was when I assumed I had the PNC SENS data up on my screen).

Just dial back the defensive attitude a little and accept that what works for you won't necessarily work for others and when rational arguments are made to explain why, have a rational debate about it. I'm happy to bury the hatchet with you and move on.

let's discuss things maturely and not derail all financial threads into you vs me. It helps nobody...
 
So what. I have only now checked my portfolio and up R55K in 1 day. And I still have my shop. What did you make today?

See this is the attitude that irks people. Let me explain why your investment makes no sense. Have you ever heard of IRR (internal rate of return)? It is how companies and investors in companies determine where their money is best placed, in simplistic terms. Now you claim to be making a fortune on the markets, yet invested a large sum of money that could have gone into your portfolio, into a coffee shop. A business that historically in this country makes at most, low double digit returns, if at all. Most coffee shops close down soon after opening as they are a niche market that has for many years been on the decline.
So if you were looking at the two options as an investor, you would calculate your IRR of both opportunities: one being a coffee shop, that involves a high level of risk, no real possible exit strategy, lowish returns, high overheads, is often seasonal, where turnover is dependent on location and the risk of location attributes, large tax liability and where there is little to no risk mitigation possible.

On the other hand you have a business investing minimal capital and realising returns vastly higher than most companies would, and higher than the market average, with the possibility of real risk mitigation, a decent exit strategy, low tax liability, low maintenance, low overheads, is gearable and scalable and has no employee requirements.

Now tell me where, as an investor, you'd put your money? Your IRR on the investment business will be far higher than the coffee shop, with a lower risk profile, and a solid balance sheet to show off in future years. Calculate the difference and you have what is called an opportunity cost lost.

So investing in the coffee shop makes no sense in this scenario, which is analogous to your scenario. So how about instead of going on the attack, which is your form of defense, you engage properly with people, especially people like undesign who knows a thing or two about the financial markets...?
 
You're a brave man alright. What is that saying about how to make a small fortune with a coffee shop? Start with a big fortune.

The coffee shop keeps me busy and the main thing is that my wife loves it. She loves the interaction with our regulars and they like her bubbly personality so we have many regulars for coffee or just to chat.
We don't make big bucks but as it is only my wife and me, we don't need big bucks. It pays for our food and our flat that we rent fully furnished. Albeit expensive, we have a lovely view of Simon's Town harbour across False Bay to Gordons Bay.
I somehow think you also read that joke in the Business Times where a guy asked his bank manager for advice as to buying a small business. His advice was." Easy. Start a big one then wait".
 
I must add. The only reason I bought the shop was so that I could live off it and not have to withdraw from my investments and allow it to grow enough to eventuality retire again with a much higher value portfolio.
 
Interesting, thanks for sharing. Perhaps don't look at my posts as opposing your viewpoint then but as complimentary, and perhaps you can learn a few new techniques and adopt them into your strategy.

Like I have always said to you, my only gripe has been the advice that you have given where clearly you either do not explain yourself properly or you're assuming that your experience can be transposed on to others as a rule, or on occasion you are flat-out wrong. It cannot, and this is why I don't advise people to adopt my strategies either. I cannot make that assumption. You do, and it is dangerous at times.

You don't strike me as a bad bloke, just incredibly stubborn. Admitting that you're wrong isn't admitting defeat, it is opening yourself up to learning. I happily admit when I'm wrong (like I was when I assumed I had the PNC SENS data up on my screen).

Just dial back the defensive attitude a little and accept that what works for you won't necessarily work for others and when rational arguments are made to explain why, have a rational debate about it. I'm happy to bury the hatchet with you and move on.

let's discuss things maturely and not derail all financial threads into you vs me. It helps nobody...

You quite right. We have even chased the OP away.
 
The coffee shop keeps me busy and the main thing is that my wife loves it. She loves the interaction with our regulars and they like her bubbly personality so we have many regulars for coffee or just to chat.
We don't make big bucks but as it is only my wife and me, we don't need big bucks. It pays for our food and our flat that we rent fully furnished. Albeit expensive, we have a lovely view of Simon's Town harbour across False Bay to Gordons Bay.
I somehow think you also read that joke in the Business Times where a guy asked his bank manager for advice as to buying a small business. His advice was." Easy. Start a big one then wait".

Cool, sometimes personal concerns and factors trump a strict IRR approach. As long as you can obtain a real return and you are comfortable with your investment risk.
 
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Well this is a Share Tips thread is it not? How's my good old CML doing? How's ELI doing? I had no charts to predict those, so I used my good old fundamentals of Past History and Future Prospects system. Works great.
Calm down DJ. Count to 10 before you diss this.

So what is the strategy that works so well? The strategy I am currently using is to buy shares that show a high rating looking at metrics such as consistency and predictability of financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors (backward looking analysis). The shares must also show a high rating in metrics computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, very highly rated Corporate Bond Rates, and risk (forward looking analysis).

reading this thread and not sure what to make of it.You might have lucky stock picks but how did you do in 2008 or in a bear market? Would you short? You dont have enough money to change a price of a stock if you were trying to buy it so small/mid caps are riskier and offer better returns but you could struggle to outperform the market over long term if you had more money.Looking you say you use fundamentals.Why is price volatility got to do with anything if you using fundamentals as the theory goes price will catchup to the fundamentals even if it takes longer than expected.
 
Just finished reading the whole thread and dont attack me but rather my message ,but dont entirely believe marco that it is as easy as he makes out or is not that good at articulating his ideas and I kind of agree with DJ's sentiment.I have been involved in markets for awhile,worked in london for hedge funds and investment banks and seen a lot including a trading scandal right before my eyes.How you picked Pinnacle (PNC) raises questions as those type of picks can make you loose lots of money in future.Either you are a true value investor,or a mightly talented discretionary trader,or mechanical trader or you are just going through a purple patch.You dont strike me as either from how you explain your trades.
 
Then explain why CML and ELI has been the BEST performers using the above system. Sour grapes me thinks. And you guys following DJ as if he is your GOD must surely feel foolish now. Check the performance of these 2 stocks before you diss them.

CML will continue to do well for many years as they have done before. They have never had a correction since inception.

Coronation are a good asset manager especially last 4 years.If we hit a bear market they will be out of favour.Look at their results around the financial crises.I remember Hugo Nelson (ceo) saying bull markets are born in bear markets ...They were having a tough time
They cannot grow their AUM forever as markets do not go up in straight line
 
Looks like it may be time to start adding platinum shares.
Have got 100 lonmin shares on Friday to get going so long.

Not sure about construction yet, gauvamint taking their time...
 
Looks like it may be time to start adding platinum shares.
Have got 100 lonmin shares on Friday to get going so long.

Not sure about construction yet, gauvamint taking their time...

I've been watching Lonmin and AMS for a while now, I'm also tempted.
 
Guys are crazy to invest in Lonmin I think.

The govt continues to attack the mining the industry and as long as the attacks continue, there won't be much confidence in the industry.
 
Guys are crazy to invest in Lonmin I think.

The govt continues to attack the mining the industry and as long as the attacks continue, there won't be much confidence in the industry.

There's a few schools of thought on that one.

In my case, I'm prepared to put between 5 and 10% of my portfolio into platinum shares.
Won't do it in one batch, but over a few months.
 
There's a few schools of thought on that one.

In my case, I'm prepared to put between 5 and 10% of my portfolio into platinum shares.
Won't do it in one batch, but over a few months.

Buy into the dips and wait for the inevitable recovery - SA government issues, oversees automotive industry and China among others?
 
Interesting article I read in the Business Times today:

PRIVATE tuition is a growing business in South Africa and there are new institutions opening each year. The demand for good, inexpensive — and accountable — schools has been driven both by parents desperate to escape the worst of the public system and the lack of new schools, despite the needs of a growing population.

Not all state-funded schools are overcrowded, dysfunctional or lacking top-quality facilities. Some of the most exceptional schools in South Africa — many of them former “model C” institutions — are funded by the state, but this does not necessarily make them inexpensive. Pretoria Boys’ High, for example, is this year charging more than R30,000 for matric and boarding costs an additional R40,500.

Profit-driven private schools might not be able to match the historic excellence, alumni ties and loyalty these schools have, but they can offer high-quality tuition in well-equipped campuses at a reasonable price — sometimes even below that charged by public institutions.

But the soaring demand for schooling has not gone unnoticed by people looking to make a quick buck. Jaco Deacon, deputy CEO of the Federation of Governing Bodies of South African Schools, says parents need to have their eyes wide open when considering new, untested schools because fly-by-night operators are taking the gaps in the market.

The demand for private tuition is being met most notably by JSE-listed Curro and Advtech, which provide franchised “brands” catering to different markets in terms of the price and level of education.

Advtech schools include Crawford, Trinityhouse, Abbotts College and Junior Colleges.

Both Crawford and Abbotts write the national senior certificate, whereas Trinityhouse students write the Independent Examination Board equivalent.

Trinityhouse and Crawford are high-end schools that, according to Advtech CEO Frank Thompson, are comparable to premier-league private schools and graduates can expect to be admitted to top universities in South Africa and around the world.

Fees at Trinityhouse Little Falls this year range from R49,200 for Grade 4 to R58,580 for Grade 12. Fees at Bishops in Cape Town, one of South Africa’s top private schools, range from R64,620 a year for Grade 4 to R88,800 for Grade 12.

A child in Grade 4 at Advtech’s Crawford Lonehill school will cost R68,040 and matric will cost R82,430.

Despite the fees being as high as they are, Mr Thompson said the demand for places at Advtech schools was rising faster than expected and waiting lists had been created for the more established schools.

He said the major drawcard for Advtech schools was the standard of education, coupled with the school ethos, excellent teachers and the “secure and nurturing yet competitive environment”. He said a back-office team ensured that standards were kept high.

The Advtech board has announced that, over the next five years, it will pump at least R1.1bn into eight new schools in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal and expand existing operations.

Advtech has its own teacher “pipeline” that is developed through the provision of scholarships and bursaries for teaching degrees. Graduates are not obliged to teach at Advtech schools, but many do.

The Curro mission statement is to “make private-school education more accessible to more South African children”. Curro develops, acquires and manages schools across the country in four brands — Select, Curro traditional, Meridian, and Junior Academies for preschool children.

Curro now has 27 schools across the country catering for 20,750 children.

Select schools, the most expensive option, are typically institutions that have been acquired as going concerns when owners want to sell. Woodhill in Pretoria East is an example. The fees here range from R48,000 for Grade 4 to R60,000 for Grade 12.

Curro traditional schools are less expensive, ranging from about R30,000 for Grade 4 to R42,000 for Grade 12.

Meridian schools offer tuition from between R12,000 a year for lower grades and R16,800 for senior grades.

Chris van der Merwe, CEO of Curro, said although Meridian schools offered excellent tuition and facilities, costs were kept to a minimum through offering only English-medium teaching, providing a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:35 (it is 1:25 in the Curro traditional and Select offerings) and limiting subject choices to 12 from Grade 10 instead of the usual 24. The choice of subjects is negotiated with the parent body after the analysis of pupils.

However, Mr van der Merwe said technology and IT facilities were not sacrificed in any way in the more affordable Meridian option. All children are given IT lessons and the quality is kept the same throughout the schools.

The demand for places at Curro schools has also soared and new schools are coming on track rapidly.

In 2012, Curro constructed five and purchased one new institution, virtually doubling the number of pupils. Van der Merwe said Curro had 10 new developments in the pipeline and six or seven were due to come on stream this year.

Spark Schools is another example of innovation in private schooling. Investor David Gibb partnered with Stacey Brewer and Ryan Harrison to launch their first school in Ferndale, Johannesburg.

It opened its doors to 140 children from Grade 0 to 2 in a leased office park earlier this month.

Spark is based on the Rocketship brand in California, which combines traditional classroom instruction with “Learning Lab” — a technology-based online process that is adapted to each child.

Known as a hybrid teaching operation, these schools cut costs by scheduling classes to make the best use of the teachers available.

The model is inherently scalable and cost-effective, according to Mr Gibb. He said the idea was to open another school in the next few years and then aim for about 64 schools in the first decade.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/ed...oms-the-rise-of-profit-driven-private-schools

But checked out the two companies mentioned in the article on MW...investors don't seem to have much confidence in either of these companies :\. Maybe it is because Curro's PE ratio is a whopping 993 lol.
 
I see DJ bought CML at 2200. Good price. More than doubled his investment. So I cannot be too incorrect.
The price is now 4650 or so. No contest intended but what is your take on my analysis on CML?

What is driving this share up so strongly? At one stage today it was up 4.6%. By now it should have gone to bed for at least 2 months to rest as it normally does. It seems determined to become a Top 40 asap. Every time it drops a few points, investors climb in to chase it back up and higher.

My personal reasoning for this phenomena is this:
Although foreign investors are dumping SA stocks due to the unrest in SA this only affects certain stocks and bonds. Not CML as they are exposed to emerging markets in Africa and Europe.
When the ZAR started weakening, the foreign money started pouring into CML and continues to do so and especially so since CML opened up to foreign investments last year.
 
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