The End.

How exactly can a neurotoxicologist who hasn't had a job anywhere near the goings on in the financial world since 2003 (and even that was questionable before since he just states a Fortune 300 company as being his employer) know very much about the inner workings of the financial industry now, and how things will pan out?

I would take articles by people like this with a LARGE pinch of salt tbh... Esp since the main purpose of that site is to make him money...
 
How exactly can a neurotoxicologist who hasn't had a job anywhere near the goings on in the financial world since 2003 (and even that was questionable before since he just states a Fortune 300 company as being his employer) know very much about the inner workings of the financial industry now, and how things will pan out?

I would take articles by people like this with a LARGE pinch of salt tbh... Esp since the main purpose of that site is to make him money...

As I stated before, that's just ONE random site that states exactly the same message: The USA is bankrupt. There's no denying the fact. It you don't like this particular guy then you'll find at the very least a few dozen sites (if not many more) that confirm these figures. In fact, you'll find a number of links that I posted earlier in this very thread that would serve that purpose.

I've been reading about the USA's actual debt commitments vs what is reported in the budget for at least a few years now. This is hardly breaking news. Only, it has become much more topical in recent months due to the pawpaw having struck the fan.
 
You may as well do the same report on every country...

The whole world is bankrupt by those standards.... we work on a Debt based economy at this point.

Yes it may all come crashing down, but you can guarantee that every government will do whatever it can to stop that from happening.
 
I'm still waiting to hear exactly how this apocalypse is going to play out. How it will all come crashing down if you will...
 
I just KNOW that Alan is going to chime in right about now asking for links as he usually does so maybe I can jump the gun by posting a few already:

Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion
Congress Unlikely to Fix $53 Trillion Entitlement Shortfall This Year
Our $100 Trillion National Debt

Take note, Mr. ToxicBunny, that I didn't first do a background check on the authors of each of those articles before posting them. I just linked to the first three hits that were produced through a simple Google search. Regardless of that, they are all basically saying the same thing. I can go on and on but it gets boring posting links after a while. These will have to suffice for now.
 
You may as well do the same report on every country...

The whole world is bankrupt by those standards.... we work on a Debt based economy at this point.

Yes it may all come crashing down, but you can guarantee that every government will do whatever it can to stop that from happening.

Indeed I could. If you go back just one page in this thread (page 10), you'll see what I posted about the European banks seeming to be in even worse shape than the USA. I'll post it again for your convenience:

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a "monetary Stalingrad" in the East.
Mr Pröll tried to drum up support for his rescue package from EU finance ministers in Brussels last week. The idea was scotched by Germany's Peer Steinbrück. Not our problem, he said. We'll see about that.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.
"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.
 
I'm still waiting to hear exactly how this apocalypse is going to play out. How it will all come crashing down if you will...

I'd much prefer never to find out the answer to that question, thank you very much. Alas, I reckon we'll acquire quite a bit of first hand experience about how depressions work in the next couple of years, I'm afraid.
 
I'd much prefer never to find out the answer to that question, thank you very much. Alas, I reckon we'll acquire quite a bit of first hand experience about how depressions work in the next couple of years, I'm afraid.

Perhaps. However I would have thought that these authors predicting doom would have considered how the doom will play out at some length. It would be an interesting read.
 
You're always posting links about the big economies and ignoring all the others... if it effects the US or Europe, it effects every other economy.

And yes, we're going into a depression, but a depression is not necessarily a complete collapse of the economic system, things will just become VERY tough as the economy corrects itself to some degree.

StrongTurd : I only commented on that one link, because I saw a bio on the "author" and just found it strange that someone with no economics education background thought they were an authority. I can also see some of the signs on the wall, but I am not all doom and gloom about it. Things will get bad, but they will correct themselves eventually.
 
Perhaps. However I would have thought that these authors predicting doom would have considered how the doom will play out at some length. It would be an interesting read.

Some of them have in fact written quite extensively about likely scenarios to be expected. Some of my personal favourites are Kunstler, Heinberg and Simmons although there are many other like Campbell, Savinar, Orlov etc. that also make for fascinating reading.
 
You're always posting links about the big economies and ignoring all the others... if it effects the US or Europe, it effects every other economy.

And yes, we're going into a depression, but a depression is not necessarily a complete collapse of the economic system, things will just become VERY tough as the economy corrects itself to some degree.

StrongTurd : I only commented on that one link, because I saw a bio on the "author" and just found it strange that someone with no economics education background thought they were an authority. I can also see some of the signs on the wall, but I am not all doom and gloom about it. Things will get bad, but they will correct themselves eventually.

Yeah, I hope you're right. Honestly. Maybe I'm just a born doomer but to me this financial crisis has all the makings of the MOTHER OF ALL DEPRESSIONS, though. :mad:
 
The whole world is bankrupt by those standards....

the whole world IS bankrupt... we all speak of debts in trillions as if they're no trivial thing and nobody wants to ask where the emperor's clothes are. the system has failed and is now collapsing. it's collapsing a little bit every day.. it's more of a meltdown really. You know that myth of how you can boil a frog alive if you do it slowly enough?
Doesn't the water feel a little warmer to you? :)
 
Some of them have in fact written quite extensively about likely scenarios to be expected. Some of my personal favourites are Kunstler, Heinberg and Simmons although there are many other like Campbell, Savinar, Orlov etc. that also make for fascinating reading.

Do you perhaps have direct links to the relevant articles at hand? I find reading through Kunstler's articles excruciating so I would like to go as directly there as possible.
 
the whole world IS bankrupt... we all speak of debts in trillions as if they're no trivial thing and nobody wants to ask where the emperor's clothes are. the system has failed and is now collapsing. it's collapsing a little bit every day.. it's more of a meltdown really. You know that myth of how you can boil a frog alive if you do it slowly enough?
Doesn't the water feel a little warmer to you? :)

Welcome, my doomer friend. Glad to have you on board. I was a lone voice among all these cornucopians before you came. Not that I need backup or anything. :D These facts pretty much speak for themselves, don't they?

Quite correct about the mind numbing scale of the numbers being casually thrown around. I read somewhere that the total value of US dollars in circulation worldwide is something like $900 billion. Also, the market capitalisation of all the US commercial banks combined is $2 trillion IIRC. For the US to run a budget deficit of $4 TRILLION for 2009 is almost unimaginable, yet true.
 
Do you perhaps have direct links to the relevant articles at hand? I find reading through Kunstler's articles excruciating so I would like to go as directly there as possible.

These authors' books are unfortunately not in the public domain. I got mine from Amazon. You can find pretty good summarisations of most of the landmark peak oil works on the internet, though. Look for "Twilight in the desert", "The long emergency" etc. Kunstler does initially appear quite abrupt but he grows on you with time. :D

IIRC it was Kunstler himself that called the suburban sprawl that started after WWII and continued until about 2007 "the greatest misappropriation of resources in the history of mankind". Quite a bold statement, I know, but it may yet prove to be quite true.
 
$900 billion in circulation is only the printed money, and yes a large portion of it is held outside the country... but it does not take into account the M2 money supply or any of the other measures.

M2 money supply for the US at April 2008 was $7.7 trillion dollars.

Yes. US commercial banks have a market cap in the region of 1.5 - 2 trillion dollars, but again this is just one sector of the US Economy.... there are many other sectors which have market caps way in excess of the banks. Oil & Gas being one, Technology being another...
 
$900 billion in circulation is only the printed money, and yes a large portion of it is held outside the country... but it does not take into account the M2 money supply or any of the other measures.

I know, yes. Still an absurdly large sum of money.

Yes. US commercial banks have a market cap in the region of 1.5 - 2 trillion dollars, but again this is just one sector of the US Economy.... there are many other sectors which have market caps way in excess of the banks. Oil & Gas being one, Technology being another...

Again, yes, I understand that. :D

My point being that the sheer scale of these bailouts is just incredible, bearing in mind that all of that money needs to be borrowed or, god forbid, printed.

I even heard that the US government is buying back a large percentage of ITS OWN T-bills that go on auction due to the slowdown in Chinese buying. The Chinese are now between a rock and a hard place: It they stop buying this junk, the wheels will REALLY come off big time yet if they continue they might well run out of funds to do so due to the collapse of their export market. Neither scenario is very palatable.
 
GM, Chrysler Seek Nearly $22 Billion More US Aid

Seriously, the time has come to switch off the life support machines. This patient is clearly not going to recover from its coma. The effect on the US (and the world's) economy would be staggering, though.

General Motors and Chrysler LLC requested nearly $22 billion in combined additional U.S. government aid and have reached a tentative deal with the United Auto Workers union to reduce labor costs.

The two automakers, which have so far received $17.4 billion from the U.S. Treasury, also announced sweeping restructuring that included capacity reduction and job cuts.

GM is seeking a total of up to $30 billion in U.S. government aid, more than double its original request -- and said it would run out of cash as soon as March without new federal funding.

Link.

Capitalism seems to be in a crisis that will rock its very foundation.
 
'This is the worst recession for over 100 years'

Here are some sobering predictions by an advisor to Gordon Brown, a man with the apt name of Ed Balls:

In an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now. The Schools Secretary's comments carry added weight because he is a former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and regarded as one of the Prime Ministers's closest allies.

Mr Balls said yesterday: "The reality is that this is becoming the most serious global recession for, I'm sure, over 100 years, as it will turn out."

He warned that events worldwide were moving at a "speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have seen before" and banks were losing cash on a "scale that nobody believed possible".

The minister stunned his audience at a Labour conference in Yorkshire by forecasting that times could be tougher than in the depression of the 1930s, when male unemployment in some cities reached 70 per cent. He also appeared to hint that the recession could play into the hands of the far right.

"The economy is going to define our politics in this region and in Britain in the next year, the next five years, the next 10 and even the next 15 years," Mr Balls said. "These are seismic events that are going to change the political landscape. I think this is a financial crisis more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s, and we all remember how the politics of that era were shaped by the economy."

Philip Hammond, the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said Mr Balls's predictions were "a staggering and very worrying admission from a cabinet minister and Gordon Brown's closest ally in the Treasury over the past 10 years". He added: "We are being told that not only are we facing the worst recession in 100 years, but that it will last for over a decade – far longer than Treasury forecasts predict."

The minister's comments came as the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, admitted the global economy was "seeing the most difficult economic conditions for generations". Writing in today's Independent, Mr Darling said his plans for shoring up Britain's finances included "measures to insure against extreme losses" as well as separating out impaired assets into a "parallel financial vehicle". Unemployment figures out tomorrow are expected to show the number of people out of work has passed two million. The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report, also released tomorrow, is expected to include a gloomy forecast for economic growth.

Yesterday, the Financial Services Authority warned that the recession "may be deeper and more prolonged than expected", adding that the global financial system had "suffered its greatest crisis in more than 70 years".

Some nasty stuff right there!
 
The Looming Collapse of European Banking

Holy crap! I could not have chosen a more apt title for this thread! If this report is true the game is truly over.

European Commission officials have estimated that impaired assets may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the trading book total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.
In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.

"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU."

He ends with this: "If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?"

Link.
 
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