The SA Politics Thread

[TheChamp]

'We are better people than that,' Nhlanhla Lux says not to lash out at Malema

The Operation Dudula leader addressed supporters on the back of a van near the Roodepoort Magistrates Court where he was released on bail.

ewn.co.za

Cracks are starting to show.

Meanwhile, former EFF student leader and fees must fall activist Bonginkosi Khanyile reiterated his support for Operation Dudula after criticising the red berets' leadership for supporting Mohlauli's accuser.

 

[PrimeSteak]

'We are better people than that,' Nhlanhla Lux says not to lash out at Malema

The Operation Dudula leader addressed supporters on the back of a van near the Roodepoort Magistrates Court where he was released on bail.

ewn.co.za

Cracks are starting to show.

Could we possibly see a new movement or party in the future? But on the other hand, Lux has stated his disdain for politics so... IDK

 

[TheChamp]

PARTY POLITICS: Nomvula Mokonyane booted off ANC’s disciplinary appeals committee

ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has used the party’s constitution to strengthen its disciplinary committee — bringing in people such as Ralph Mgijima, Vusi Pikoli and Thandi Orleyn.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

 

[PrimeSteak]

PARTY POLITICS: Nomvula Mokonyane booted off ANC’s disciplinary appeals committee

ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa has used the party’s constitution to strengthen its disciplinary committee — bringing in people such as Ralph Mgijima, Vusi Pikoli and Thandi Orleyn.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

Seems like Rama is cleaning house of the RET everywhere now?

 

[ToxicBunny]

Seems like Rama is cleaning house of the RET everywhere now?

I think he's trying where he can get away with it, without directly impacting his chances of re-election in the December conference.

Personally I don't think "strengthening" the disciplinary committee and whatnot will actually make a difference but still. Party before country is still an ANC mantra, even for the anti-corruption folk.

 

[PrimeSteak]

POLITICAL SCENARIOS: Ramaphosa likely to win ANC elective conference and lead a coalition government in 2024 — research reports

Two reports show the President will serve a second term — but in a shifted political landscape.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

So either way, a coalition gov in 2024 is on its way, that I can agree on. I still wouldn't put my hopes on ANC getting 48%+.
But I agree with them that Rama will win the conference most likely. I also tend to think after that, that the RET will either create their own party or join EFF.

I mean if we look at the opinion polling before the LGE last year:

It was predicted that ANC would get 49.3% and the DA 17.9%, the EFF 14.5% and all other major parties (IFP, ACDP, VF+) including ASA well under 2 per cent.
ANC got well below 49% (46%), DA got 22% (rounded up from somewhere in 21 point something), EFF got below 14% (11%), all the other major parties got well above 1.2 - 1.4% (all of them got more than 2%).

I don't see the ANC having the upper hand in 2024...

 

[PrimeSteak]

ATM's bid to have no confidence vote in Ramaphosa in secret struck off roll

This means Wednesday’s motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa will take place openly and not through a secret ballot.

ewn.co.za

Rama's motion of no confidence will be an open vote. We don't know about the cabinet's motion yet.

A lot of hype for tomorrow.
Rama's motion won't pass that's for sure, but there's a possibility that the cabinet motion may pass. Would be Rama's perfect chance to do some more "house cleaning".

 

[ToxicBunny]

POLITICAL SCENARIOS: Ramaphosa likely to win ANC elective conference and lead a coalition government in 2024 — research reports

Two reports show the President will serve a second term — but in a shifted political landscape.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

So either way, a coalition gov in 2024 is on its way, that I can agree on. I still wouldn't put my hopes on ANC getting 48%+.
But I agree with them that Rama will win the conference most likely. I also tend to think after that, that the RET will either create their own party or join EFF.

I mean if we look at the opinion polling before the LGE last year:

It was predicted that ANC would get 49.3% and the DA 17.9%, the EFF 14.5% and all other major parties (IFP, ACDP, VF+) including ASA well under 2 per cent.
ANC got well below 49% (46%), DA got 22% (rounded up from somewhere in 21 point something), EFF got below 14% (11%), all the other major parties got well above 1.2 - 1.4% (all of them got more than 2%).

TBH, given where our political landscape is heading, any projections for how voting will turn out are total guesswork at the moment. I can buy that the ANC will fall below 50% (what level below 50% is a guess). For me the only really unpleasant unknown is just how far the EFF will grow. I hope to all that is holy that 11 - 14% is there ceiling, and from here on out we will see the EFF sink into obscurity.

And I somehow doubt the RET faction will join the EFF (at least enmasse)... the RET faction are entirely a politically expedient grouping out for rent extraction, and the EFF have very little hope of being able to sustain that level of rent extraction with their level of support and people largely vote for the ANC rather than personas within the ANC, so moving to the EFF would balloon the EFFs books in terms of leaders but not necessarily in terms of actual support.

 

[PrimeSteak]

For me the only really unpleasant unknown is just how far the EFF will grow.

I hope to all that is holy that 11 - 14% is there ceiling, and from here on out we will see the EFF sink into obscurity.

I think so, I mean they got 11% with the LGE and in 2019 they got 10.80% of the national vote. So I don't think they will break 11% in 2024.

Most likely, 9 - 11%. But we should keep our eyes on the smaller parties like VF+, IFP, ACDP, GOOD and last but not least ASA in 2024. They have the most to gain.

I wonder what vote percentage ASA will be able to muster in 2024 if they keep the current momentum.

And I somehow doubt the RET faction will join the EFF (at least enmasse)... the RET faction are entirely a politically expedient grouping out for rent extraction, and the EFF have very little hope of being able to sustain that level of rent extraction with their level of support and people largely vote for the ANC rather than personas within the ANC, so moving to the EFF would balloon the EFFs books in terms of leaders but not necessarily in terms of actual support.

They have a lot of similarities, so I think if they don't get their way with ANC, they might head out, but it's all speculation at this point, I guess.

 

[TheChamp]

Seems like Rama is cleaning house of the RET everywhere now?

I don't think it's fair to give him all the credit, he has definitely been a good influence on the party but it takes more than one person to push the commitment on the principle and resolutions.

 

[TheChamp]

ATM's bid to have no confidence vote in Ramaphosa in secret struck off roll

This means Wednesday’s motion of no confidence in Ramaphosa will take place openly and not through a secret ballot.

ewn.co.za

Rama's motion of no confidence will be an open vote. We don't know about the cabinet's motion yet.

A lot of hype for tomorrow.
Rama's motion won't pass that's for sure, but there's a possibility that the cabinet motion may pass. Would be Rama's perfect chance to do some more "house cleaning".

The cabinet one will fail whether it's a closed or secret vote, you can bet 10 Ankole cows on that.

But it would still be interesting to hear why you think it stands a chance.

 

[ToxicBunny]

The cabinet one will fail whether it's a closed or secret vote, you can bet 10 Ankole cows on that.

But it would still be interesting to hear why you think it stands a chance.

I agree... neither vote stands even the vaguest chance of success.

The political fallout for the ANC if they voted to remove either Cyril or the Cabinet would be disastrous for them come 2024 and probably even more so in December with the whole conference descending into anarchy.

 

[TheChamp]

I agree... neither vote stands even the vaguest chance of success.

The political fallout for the ANC if they voted to remove either Cyril or the Cabinet would be disastrous for them come 2024 and probably even more so in December with the whole conference descending into anarchy.

Remember that ANC members voted for the removal of Zuma when the motion was done through a secret vote, they got away with it because there was no way of identifying them, but by that I don't mean the motion will succeed, I just think it would have more ANC support than the cabinet one.

Your Mervyn Dirks and the others have very good motivation to break away from the party directive and vote with the enemy, not so much for the cabinet motion.

 

[ToxicBunny]

Remember that ANC members voted for the removal of Zuma when the motion was done through a secret vote, they got away with it because there was no way of identifying them, but by that I don't mean the motion will succeed, I just think it would have more ANC support than the cabinet one.

Your Mervyn Dirks and the others have very good motivation to break away from the party directive and vote with the enemy, not so much for the cabinet motion.

So Zuma was a special case in that regard, the ANC had closed ranks for years on it but it got to be entirely politically untenable for them at the end... 2019 would have been a bloodbath for them if they hadn't removed him I think.

 

[PrimeSteak]

But it would still be interesting to hear why you think it stands a chance.

I already said why:

Would be Rama's perfect chance to do some more "house cleaning".

The cabinet has been giving immensely bad press for the ANC (also while letting the country go down the toilet more). I don't think Rama and his faction would be eager to vehemently defend them either (would also improve confidence in ANC among general pop and opposition if they do the right thing for once...).

Most to all of the opposition will vote them out but then it's up to the ANC section of Parly. We also know how divided the ANC itself is atm, so while if it's an open vote there's the chance that the caucus could get whipped but there's also a chance for rebellion from the caucus.

I like to think anything is possible. So I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow. If it passes, awesome, if it doesn't then it's as usual sadly...

What else can I say?
Should I light Parliament on fire in protest? /s

 

[mojoman]

Lol..these halfwits...

Dudula’s Nhlanhla Lux vows to ‘liberate’ police before they ‘take this country’

The lawyer representing Operation Dudula leader Nhlanhla “Lux” Mohlaoli claims his client is working with the police minister to engage similar anti-migrant groups.

ewn.co.za

 

[PrimeSteak]

I agree... neither vote stands even the vaguest chance of success.

The political fallout for the ANC if they voted to remove either Cyril or the Cabinet would be disastrous for them come 2024 and probably even more so in December with the whole conference descending into anarchy.

You think that it wouldn't be chaos anyway?

 

[TheChamp]

I already said why:

The cabinet has been giving immensely bad press for the ANC (also while letting the country go down the toilet more). I don't think Rama and his faction would be eager to vehemently defend them either (would also improve confidence in ANC among general pop and opposition if they do the right thing for once...).

Most to all of the opposition will vote them out but then it's up to the ANC section of Parly. We also know how divided the ANC itself is atm, so while if it's an open vote there's the chance that the caucus could get whipped but there's also a chance for rebellion from the caucus.

I like to think anything is possible. So I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow. If it passes, awesome, if it doesn't then it's as usual sadly...

What else can I say?
Should I light Parliament on fire in protest? /s

Okay, I hear you but I see it differently, firstly, that is Ramaphosa's cabinet, he appointed each and every Minister who is there and the idea is that he did that with the powers vested on him as the President, he never at any point indicate that a gun was held to his head to appoint people he doesn't want, that is the premise we are working on.

What is expected of Ramaphosa is to stand by his cabinet and defend it, it would be the greatest form of weakness if he were to be seen not defending them and the ANC would be 100% correct if they were to recall him if there was any indication that he supports the opposition's motion to remove his own cabinet.

On the motion itself, there is just no motivation from any ANC people to remove cabinet, it will never solve anyone's problem as Ramaphosa wpuld still be there to appoint it again and the expected thing is that he should appoint the same Ministers whowere removed, because they were his Ministers and he did not indicate he was unhappy with any one of them, even if he would very much like to remove anyone, it should be seen to be his own doing not something done for him by the DA.

 

[TheChamp]

So Zuma was a special case in that regard, the ANC had closed ranks for years on it but it got to be entirely politically untenable for them at the end... 2019 would have been a bloodbath for them if they hadn't removed him I think.

Yes but the point I was making is that the RET gang would use that motivation to also want to vote Cyril out, if nothing happened to those who voted against Zuma back then, nothing should happen to those who vote against Cyril.

That would be the ANC's own doing catching up with them.

 

[PrimeSteak]

Firstly, that is Ramaphosa's cabinet, he appointed each and every Minister who is there and the idea is that he did that with the powers vested on him as the President, he never at any point indicate that a gun was held to his head to appoint people he doesn't want, that is the premise we are working on.

What is expected of Ramaphosa is to stand by his cabinet and defend it, it would be the greatest form of weakness if he were to be seen not defending them and the ANC would be 100% correct if they were to recall him if there was any indication that he supports the opposition's motion to remove his own cabinet.

So he should just be like "Hey, I know you guys are useless and wrecking the country even more. But hey, ANC before SA, lolz.". How is it weakness if he doesn't defend them? And why recall him just cause he works with the opposition?

This is what I mentioned in my previous post, this is about doing the right thing and the right thing is to throw out the Cabinet. This could also foster trust from the opposition and general populace in ANC if they do the right thing. This could also prove if Rama is truly willing to reform the ANC as he says.

On the motion itself, there is just no motivation from any ANC people to remove cabinet, it will never solve anyone's problem as Ramaphosa wpuld still be there to appoint it again and the expected thing is that he should appoint the same Ministers whowere removed, because they were his Ministers and he did not indicate he was unhappy with any one of them, even if he would very much like to remove anyone, it should be seen to be his own doing not something done for him by the DA.

So in other words, if the Cabinet is ousted, reinstate them cause he didn't publicly state his dismay. And cause "ANC Unity, ANC before SA"?

Cabinet blew R20 million on fuel and new luxury vehicles for 'ANC petrolheads', says DA | The Citizen

Since 2019, Cabinet allegedly spent millions on fuel and luxury official vehicles of ministers and deputy ministers.

www.citizen.co.za

This also doesn't look nice on the Cabinet...