The SA Politics Thread

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ToxicBunny said:
Not at all... But it's a continuation of the ANCs continuing spiral down if you ask me...

This move is going to cost them further at the polls in 2024
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Most importantly, and Sihle said it the last time and no one listened to him, KZN is once again going into the national conference divided more than it was in 2017, they will be going there with much fewer delegates than they had in 2017.

It's a very hollow victory because even the eThekwini metro where they are hoping to build their Kingdom is on very shaky grounds, now the very ANC of eThekwini that was weak and struggled to elect a Mayor and recently failed to appoint their municipal manager has been further divided.

There are going to be a lot of concessions they are going to have to make otherwise it's going to work out according to plan.
 
TheChamp said:
It is very encouraging if you are able to see the bigger picture. KZN has always been the type of province to elect people like Gumede to positions, no other ANC leader has challenged that dominance the way Cyril has, he has the biggest support for a non Zulu ANC leader in the history of the ANC, even Mandela never had the support that Cyril had over there.

Compare her win to the previous one and you will see just how weak she has become from how she was going into 2017 to now. She will be leading a region that will not have the number of delegates they had in Nasrec 2017, the faction that lost will still have delegates going to the December conference, the narrow victory is the reflection of the delegates from the region that would be voting for a new leader.

She has won but there is no way she is going to call the shots with that amount of support, half of her slate facing criminal charges is also not going to help her one bit, the provincial conference is definitely not going to be a walk in the park for her.
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Suppose there's some silver lining to the dark clouds.

TheChamp said:
She has won but there is no way she is going to call the shots with that amount of support, half of her slate facing criminal charges is also not going to help her one bit, the provincial conference is definitely not going to be a walk in the park for her..
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I'm sure she'll be calling all the shots. She is in control of the entire leadership so she is in charge and you can be sure that leadership will be doing her bidding even while she sits at home "stepped aside".
 
R13... said:
Suppose there's some silver lining to the dark clouds.


I'm sure she'll be calling all the shots. She is in control of the entire leadership so she is in charge and you can be sure that leadership will be doing her bidding even while she sits at home "stepped aside".
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Same way Cyril was calling the shots after his victory in Nasrec? I am sure that's not something she would prefer.

There's two ways to go about it, it's either her faction purges the whole region and municipality of all the members of the other faction and they can then rule with an iron fist over the metro. No idea how they would manage that.

Or they co-opt the other faction and work together to be a dominant force from KZN, power and influence is what you want, not just winning, with what they have now it's going to be a very frustrating journey ahead of them, the other faction I'd not just going to roll over and admit defeat, that's not how things work in KZN.
 
TheChamp said:
Same way Cyril was calling the shots after his victory in Nasrec? I am sure that's not something she would prefer.
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Cyril didn't get the clean sweep Zandile managed. And the RET have much less scruples than new dawners - they hold CR to a higher standard than they do themselves, they know their time is limited and they'll do anything to try unseat him in December so they can pig out once and for all.
 
TheChamp said:
Most importantly, and Sihle said it the last time and no one listened to him, KZN is once again going into the national conference divided more than it was in 2017, they will be going there with much fewer delegates than they had in 2017.

It's a very hollow victory because even the eThekwini metro where they are hoping to build their Kingdom is on very shaky grounds, now the very ANC of eThekwini that was weak and struggled to elect a Mayor and recently failed to appoint their municipal manager has been further divided.

There are going to be a lot of concessions they are going to have to make otherwise it's going to work out according to plan.
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Yeah, for the RET faction at the very least, winning eThekwini is not the coup that it was 4 years ago...

But beyond that, the rank and file citizens of this country are gatvol of the ANC and getting more and more so every week, and them continuing down this path only hurts them at the polls every few years. Ultimately a move like this hastens our move to coalition governments, or the ANC losing outright and not being able to form a coalition.
 
TheChamp said:
It is very encouraging if you are able to see the bigger picture. KZN has always been the type of province to elect people like Gumede to positions, no other ANC leader has challenged that dominance the way Cyril has, he has the biggest support for a non Zulu ANC leader in the history of the ANC, even Mandela never had the support that Cyril had over there.

Compare her win to the previous one and you will see just how weak she has become from how she was going into 2017 to now. She will be leading a region that will not have the number of delegates they had in Nasrec 2017, the faction that lost will still have delegates going to the December conference, the narrow victory is the reflection of the delegates from the region that would be voting for a new leader.

She has won but there is no way she is going to call the shots with that amount of support, half of her slate facing criminal charges is also not going to help her one bit, the provincial conference is definitely not going to be a walk in the park for her.
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I'm glad there are some "positives" from the loss (210 to 181?) but not a good omen. From what I see, Business Forum members already making contracts difficult in eThekwini, this could embolden them further.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Yup.

It's like:
"Honey, I'll definitely change!"
/still doesn't change

Agreed.

We can only hope, my guy
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Yeah we can only hope, but its very clearly evident that people are horribly disillusioned with the ANC, and they aren't showing any signs of changing their ways so the disillusionment will grow...

They do still have 2 years to "correct", but I just don't see it happening... What I honestly see happening now is unchecked feeding at the trough because they're painfully aware their access to it is getting more and more tenuous.
 
Oldfut said:
I'm glad there are some "positives" from the loss (210 to 181?) but not a good omen. From what I see, Business Forum members already making contracts difficult in eThekwini, this could embolden them further.
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Oh without a doubt...

This will mean difficulties in eThekwini for the foreseeable future without a doubt and it will embolden those mafia groupings even further... but that should be something that is largely easy to solve if we had a police force that did their job.
 
Oldfut said:
I'm glad there are some "positives" from the loss (210 to 181?) but not a good omen. From what I see, Business Forum members already making contracts difficult in eThekwini, this could embolden them further.
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Business forum is RET and RET is business forum. Those thugs thrived under Zuma - he made sure they always got their tributes like the mafia dons in the old country.
 
Oldfut said:
I'm glad there are some "positives" from the loss (210 to 181?) but not a good omen. From what I see, Business Forum members already making contracts difficult in eThekwini, this could embolden them further.
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That's the plan, they are hoping to make eThekwini their Kingdom and source of funds, but I think they are not forward-looking enough to make it work.

For an example the winning faction doesn't have a plan on what happens if the charged members are found guilty. They don't have a plan on how they are going to manage their caucus iin the metro after this, because even more divisions are coming to an already weak caucus.
 
TheChamp said:
That's the plan, they are hoping to make eThekwini their Kingdom and source of funds, but I think they are not forward-looking enough to make it work.

For an example the winning faction doesn't have a plan on what happens if the charged members are found guilty. They don't have a plan on how they are going to manage their caucus iin the metro after this, because even more divisions are coming to an already weak caucus.
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There is zero forward thinking involved in this...

Its all about getting their members into positions of power, every will sort itself out after that, but they aren't really clued up enough to understand that processes way beyond their control are at play and have a very significant chance of derailing them entirely.
 
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ToxicBunny said:
But beyond that, the rank and file citizens of this country are gatvol of the ANC and getting more and more so every week, and them continuing down this path only hurts them at the polls every few years. Ultimately a move like this hastens our move to coalition governments, or the ANC losing outright and not being able to form a coalition.
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Yeah, I mean look at the speed at which new civil society groups and movements like Dudula and Cape Forum are popping up because those groups have abandoned the concept of getting the gov to help them/to do their jobs. You can also clearly see that the ANC no longer has that almost cult-like following anymore, where they are assured of winning the next election by a landslide.

The ANC keeps talking about "unity and renewal" but we don't see it. The failed motion by the DA against the Cabinet also highlighted the ANC's unwillingness to truly change. Almost every week we see new stuff of ANC infighting and the party tearing itself apart.

The ANC's time as the ruling party is running out. Coalition govs are our future, which will most likely happen in 2024, we can only hope that the ANC isn't part of that coalition.
 
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ToxicBunny said:
and they aren't showing any signs of changing their ways so the disillusionment will grow...
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Yeah. Hopefully, the disillusionment won't cause another July Riots or possibly xenophobic pogroms...
ToxicBunny said:
They do still have 2 years to "correct", but I just don't see it happening... What I honestly see happening now is unchecked feeding at the trough because they're painfully aware their access to it is getting more and more tenuous.
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No, they won't, it's just some more hollow promises from them. Their MO. They've been preaching "unity and renewal" since 2019...

But you can see they're stressed out, it's like they're looting what they can because they know they won't be able to after 2024.

Even Mashatile has said if the ANC doesn't drastically change, the ANC will lose in 2024.
 
Cyril is not acting against her staunch adversary (Gumede) because he wants to protect ANC by not acting against her. Because, if she is successful, he will not be and that will go against ANC of which he is the president.

Extremely high IQ thinking here. I applaud.
 
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