The SA Politics Thread

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JuliusSeizure said:
The most likely situation in 2024, is either a marginal ANC win
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Disagree.
JuliusSeizure said:
or ANC wins with a minority partner.
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This is more likely. Regardless of who heads and is part of one, we'll see coalition governments on the national and provincial levels.

Gauteng will most likely be under coalition government. WC will be under DA control still or a DA-led coalition in the worst case.
JuliusSeizure said:
They will be able to definitely get the backing from some of the 1-2% parties in 2024 in exchange for giving them jobs.
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If this were to happen it would most likely be:
GOOD, Al Jama-ah and the NFP.
JuliusSeizure said:
ANC could potentially lose in 2029.
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Then it would be probably too late honestly, nothing will be left of SA by then if things don't change in 2024.

I don't think ANC will be able to repair the damage that the Zuma/Cyril era has done to them or reverse the results of the LGE 2021. That LGE showed many South Africans that it is truly possible to bring the glorious movement under 50%. Many ANC voters are disillusioned with them and it will grow to 2024, with their voters either abstaining again or defecting to other parties. ActionSA is also a wild card since we don't know how well they'll do, we can't resign them to 2% status since they already surpassed that by competing in only 6 municipalities nationwide.

So yeah, ideally an opposition coalition in 2024 would be cool.
 
PrimeSteak said:
If this were to happen it would most likely be:
GOOD, Al Jama-ah and the NFP.
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The parties that the ANC can win over are seemingly everyone bar the VF+ and Action SA but politics is unpredictable and strange things do happen.

I have not included the DA here because they will likely go into coalition with the ANC if it means that the EFF can be kept out but this does seem unlikely as the EFF have probably hit a plateau now. It's unlikely that they will go into coalition with the ANC anytime soon but the possibility cannot be ruled out altogether.

PrimeSteak said:
ActionSA is also a wild card since we don't know how well they'll do, we can't resign them to 2% status since they already surpassed that by competing in only 6 municipalities nationwide.
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If Action SA get a bit of luck and play their cards right, 6-10% will be possible. It looks likely that there will be a low turnout which benefits them a lot (their voters will be more amped especially as it's their first campaign and will vote).

They also seem to now be the preferred choice of swing voters.

They will potentially match if not beat EFF's first time performance in 2014 especially as they have a bigger voting pool and target market than the EFF.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Yeah, 2024 will essentially decide SA's fate. Nice and symbolic too, since it will be 30 years of democracy then, nice spot to start an ANC-free gov era.
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A couple of years ago, I read an article that states that African liberal movements and parties that get into power; generally don’t last more than 25~30 years.

I’ve struggled to find it again. But I found that interesting and perhaps, ANC will loose it’s majority in 2024. That would be a good start to correcting the course.
 
It's definitely going to be a frenzy, I would already permanently deploy SIU, Hawks, NPA and SARS to KZN to stand by for the inevitable.
 
TheChamp said:
It's definitely going to be a frenzy
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Oh it will be. Months later we'll hear how much money was stolen... No wonder people were weary when gov announced the R1bn...
TheChamp said:
I would already permanently deploy SIU, Hawks, NPA and SARS to KZN to stand by for the inevitable.
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Lol, you might. But not the glorious movement.
 
TheChamp said:
It's definitely going to be a frenzy, I would already permanently deploy SIU, Hawks, NPA and SARS to KZN to stand by for the inevitable.
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The German/Italian/Swiss/French manufacturers/watchmakers/fashion houses are looking gleefully at the developments. I'd wager they're already planning their bonus structures.
 
www.dailymaverick.co.za

No trust in SA government: KZN flood aid commitment met with cynicism & derision

As many people from many corners of our society rush to help the victims of the immense and horrifying flooding in KwaZulu-Natal, the government has promised to help the province and to make financial resources available. Instead of gratitude, they were met with an overwhelming amount of cynicism. I
www.dailymaverick.co.za www.dailymaverick.co.za
 
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