The SA Politics Thread

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Priapus said:
A 10% drop on a national level, would be a death blow to the party, I think.
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No question on that front... and so long as its not accompanied by a 10% rise for the EFF, it could be the political light at the end of the tunnel that this country is crying out for.
 
ToxicBunny said:
I honestly wouldn't be so sure of that...

I very much doubt that the ANC could shoot itself in the foot even more than it does currently.
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Yeah. And going by the by-elections and last year, things aren't looking good for ANC.

Also, the ANC are capable of anything. And they ****-up at every turn.
 
Priapus said:
A 10% drop on a national level, would be a death blow to the party, I think.
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ToxicBunny said:
No question on that front... and so long as its not accompanied by a 10% rise for the EFF, it could be the political light at the end of the tunnel that this country is crying out for.
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Completely agree with you two. I doubt EFF will somehow run to 20%, they'll probably lag around 10% or lower like always.

But yeah, ANC getting thrown out by an opposition coalition in 2024 is the light at the end of the tunnel so to speak.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Completely agree with you two. I doubt EFF will somehow run to 20%, they'll probably lag around 10% or lower like always.

But yeah, ANC getting thrown out by an opposition coalition in 2024 is the light at the end of the tunnel so to speak.
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For me the absolute best possible outcome is the ANC below the 40% mark, the EFF hovering around 8% or so, and all the "bit" parties realising that the ANC is their kryptonite and jumping ship to whatever coalition is in place... and that coalition being largely made up of the DA and ActionSA as 50/50 "partners" as it were.

That is of course a pie-in-the-sky dream though.
 
ToxicBunny said:
For me the absolute best possible outcome is the ANC below the 40% mark, the EFF hovering around 8% or so, and all the "bit" parties realising that the ANC is their kryptonite and jumping ship to whatever coalition is in place... and that coalition being largely made up of the DA and ActionSA as 50/50 "partners" as it were.
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Would be cool if DA and ASA stopped attacking each other like crazy and worked together. If they can manage that, then I would say the best possible outcome might not be too unreal.

On the vote share thing, I looked up Parly seats from 2019 and thought of something:

A party/coalition needs 201 seats at the minimum to form the majority and be the gov. Let's say ANC strikes 45%, that's 180 out of 400 seats, meaning they still need 21 seats to govern. If the best outcome of 40% happens, then the ANC would have 160 seats in Parly requiring 41 seats to govern.

Again, I don't see the ANC and EFF being lovey-dovey (at least under Rama rule) since the ANC already rejected the pie-in-the-sky demands EFF made to form a national coalition last year, so chances are low that they would just accept the EFF's pie-in-the-sky demands to stay in power then IMO.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Would be cool if DA and ASA stopped attacking each other like crazy and worked together. If they can manage that, then I would say the best possible outcome might not be too unreal.
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I don't see that happening anytime soon...

They are both aware that as it stands now, they're definitely fighting to be the official opposition party in the country with the tangible chance of being the leading coalition member in a ruling coalition if the ANC gets below 40% of the vote.

What we are seeing is more a corporate market share battle than an ideological political battle in my opinion.
 
ToxicBunny said:
For me the absolute best possible outcome is the ANC below the 40% mark, the EFF hovering around 8% or so, and all the "bit" parties realising that the ANC is their kryptonite and jumping ship to whatever coalition is in place... and that coalition being largely made up of the DA and ActionSA as 50/50 "partners" as it were.

That is of course a pie-in-the-sky dream though.
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Realistically, I don't see ANC dipping below, 45%. Their biggest drop is around that, on a national level from one election to the next.
 
Priapus said:
Realistically, I don't see ANC dipping below, 45%. Their biggest drop is around that, on a national level from one election to the next.
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Realistically I agree as well...

Though there are signs that more and more people are vacating being even vaguely connected with politics in this country and the ANC is doing almost everything in its power to alienate its voting base.
 
Priapus said:
Realistically, I don't see ANC dipping below, 45%. Their biggest drop is around that, on a national level from one election to the next.
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It's very much possible. I see a massive ANC dip in KZN especially if CR is the candidate which is likely. They could be on the verge of losing KZN.
 
ToxicBunny said:
Realistically I agree as well...

Though there are signs that more and more people are vacating being even vaguely connected with politics in this country and the ANC is doing almost everything in its power to alienate its voting base.
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Having said that; I've just realised - for ANC to be under 50% (Pretty much everyone is saying this is likely) - that's a 12% drop. More than double their last biggest drop.

Is that even possible? And if it is maybe low 40s - might - be realistic.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
I see a massive ANC dip in KZN especially if CR is the candidate which is likely. They could be on the verge of losing KZN.
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Agreed. ANC KZN also lost a lot of standing locally and on the national ANC scale. So KZN falling under the control of an IFP coalition there is totally possible.

I'm curious to see what happens to the northern provinces (North West, MP, etc), since ANC support is slowly falling there, and you regularly see on Twitter an ASA branch launching in a ward somewhere in these provinces.
Especially North West seems to react quite positively to ASA.

WC will most likely remain DA or under DA-coalition control. FS and NC are unknowns. EC will most likely stay with the ANC. Gauteng, I think might become opposition coalition controlled, DA/ASA lead.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Would be cool if DA and ASA stopped attacking each other like crazy and worked together. If they can manage that, then I would say the best possible outcome might not be too unreal.
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It's difficult for them to co-exist happily. The DA essentially views Action SA as taking their voters.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
It's difficult for them to co-exist happily. The DA essentially views Action SA as taking their voters.
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I am sure they will come together if they are on equal footing in terms of voter % and/or seats OR when they are in a position to grab power.
 
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