The Syrian Conflict Thread

[killadoob]

What is your definition of help lightscribe? I am almost 100% certain israel don't want anything to do with the war in syria. They don't want to give anyone the excuse to attack them.

Assad is a crazy a man though, the only way he could be removed is by using chemical weapons, that has not helped him achieve his goal so the crazy madman assad must attack israel to ensure he is toppled now. That is logic for you i guess.

http://rt.com/news/chemical-weapons-rebels-captives-632/

Some propaganda i assume. Seems convenient they were captive over heard the conversation and then were let go. So much BS and possible lying it's hard to tell WTF is going on but i don't buy into this story. Sounds as bad as curveball but then again curveball was supposedly the reason the US went to war in iraq. This could be considered undeniable i guess. They are not keeping it secret though. Whether it is the truth i got no idea.

 

[LazyLion]

Obama could delay strike, to address US people later on Tuesday

US President Barack Obama said he would consider a Russian proposal to put Syria's chemical arms under international control, but will nevertheless press his case in a prime-time television speech later on Tuesday for Congress to authorize a military strike on the country.

In a series of television interviews aimed at winning over an American public wary of military intervention in Syria, Obama said Moscow's proposal was "a positive development" that could put American strike plans "on hold" - but he was doubtful that Damascus would follow through.

Obama will address the American people from the East Room of the White House on Tuesday evening, his latest media push on Syria before a likely vote in Congress this week on the use of force.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the chemical arms proposal in Moscow on Monday, during a visit by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, who said his country welcomed the initiative.

The Syrian opposition rejected the offer, saying it was an attempt to buy time, and pressed the international community to punish the regime of President Bashar al-Assad over its alleged role in using chemical weapons.

Iran, an ally of al-Assad, called the Russian proposal a step in the right direction.

"We welcome any proposal that is against war and for peace," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marsieh Afcham on Tuesday.

The US and France have been leading calls for a military response to last month's alleged chemical weapons attacks, which Washington says killed more than 1,400 people.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Russia's proposal would be "acceptable" if the Syrian government allowed its entire chemical arsenal to be destroyed without delay.

The New York based Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday that available evidence suggests that Syrian government forces were responsible for the August 21 attacks, which appeared to have a weapons grade nerve agent, most likely Sarin.

"Rocket debris and the symptoms of the victims from the August 21 attacks on Ghouta provide telltale evidence about the weapon systems used," said Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director at HRW.

The watchdog said the type of rockets and launchers used in these attacks strongly suggests that they were weapon systems known only to be in the possession of, and used by, government armed forces.

Al-Assad warned of the repercussions of any military strike on his country, when asked whether such action might provoke attacks on US military bases in the Middle East.

A report by UN chemical weapons inspectors is expected by mid-September. # dpa NOTEBOOK ## Internet - [HRW report] (dpaq.de/AX9HU) -[Syrian opposition statement, in Arabic] (dpaq.de/O3pAX) * * * * The following information is not for publication ## dpa Contacts -Reporting by: Nehal El-Sherif in Cairo and Weedah Hamzah in Beirut -Editing by: Stephen Lowman; [email protected]> Tel: +49 30 2852 31472;


Source : Sapa-dpa /pk
Date : 10 Sep 2013 11:01

 

[LazyLion]

Russia preparing workable Syrian Chemical Weapons Plan

Russia is preparing a "workable and clear" plan to carry out its proposal to put Syria's chemical weapons under international control, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

"We expect to present this plan in the near future and we are ready to rework and refine it together with the UN secretary general, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and with members of the UN Security Council," Lavrov told reporters in Moscow.


Source : Sapa-dpa /sdv
Date : 10 Sep 2013 12:33

 

[Arthur]

Let us hope peace prevails and that O-PeacePrize-bama gets his own comeuppance for warmongering.

 

[thestaggy]

I still don't get why you think it's deadset and inevitable that the extremists are going to take over. They're not the majority of the opposition fighters. I think an Egypt-like situation is more likely. You make it sound like the moment Assad falls that Al-Nusra will take over the government and rule Syria with an iron fist.

I watched a BBC documentary (keep in mind that if the BBC was guilty of having an agenda it would be an anti-Assad one) and they had a 35-minute piece titled 'The Battle for Syria's Courts' and I can tell you now, the Islamists are more entrenched than you'd like to believe, especially in the north.

Video footage of public lashings being carried out under orders of Sharia law. The head of the Sharia court in Saraqeb (a city in northern Syria, where the Islamists are at their strongest) said in an interview that in the future there will be beheadings and amputations in line with Sharia law. The Syrian people are scared. The ones that spoke out admitted to living in fear for their future as they wanted democracy and not Sharia law. One of the anti-Islamists who advocates democracy and justice by way of judges and lawyers was badly beaten and had his offices ransacked after speaking out against Sharia law. The people on the streets of Saraqeb say that Sharia law has encroached on their daily lives and that they believe it is heading the same way in many northern towns, villages and even cities.

I cannot find the video yet to post it.

Folks within the FSA have also stated that they foresee conflict with the Islamists if and when Assad falls.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...els-fear-side-war-as-hostility-escalates.html

 

[Alan]

BBC with an anti third world socialist despot agenda lol sure.

You could nitpick individual instances of extremism all day. The fact remains they are a minority of the rebel forces. The vast majority of those involved in this conflict are secular. The country itself has a long history of secularism. As if that would all just disappear the day Assad falls.

 

[killadoob]

BBC with an anti third world socialist despot agenda lol sure.

You could nitpick individual instances of extremism all day. The fact remains they are a minority of the rebel forces. The vast majority of those involved in this conflict are secular. The country itself has a long history of secularism. As if that would all just disappear the day Assad falls.

I'm sorry alan but you cannot say with absolute certainty that is the case can you? As far as i worked out, there could as many as 50% perhaps more depending on the syrian army. That is not a minority. I don't know how many people have defected to one of the 3 main jihadists groups who are all buddies.

Can i say that with absolute certainty? hells no so i am struggling to see or understand how it is you know. The US government don't even know. They could not even give a figure when asked. They never had an after plan so i doubt they really gave it much thought and i am not saying the extremists make up a minority or majority because i don't know.

The minority of extremists are doing well enough in iraq to kill 1000+ people monthly now. So let's say the extremists are 25%. If they start killing like they are in iraq 1000+ people a month x 30 = 300000 dead innocents, not casualties of war alan. Innocent people. That is just car bombs and suicide bombers, that does not include high tech weapons and the ability to move like an army.

 

[thestaggy]

BBC with an anti third world socialist despot agenda lol sure.

You could nitpick individual instances of extremism all day. The fact remains they are a minority of the rebel forces. The vast majority of those involved in this conflict are secular. The country itself has a long history of secularism. As if that would all just disappear the day Assad falls.

The documentary was not about an isolated incident in an isolated, mountainous village.

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-12/world/41335229_1_syria-islamic-state-foreign-fighters

The group, now known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, is by no means the largest of the loosely aligned rebel organizations battling to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and it is concentrated mostly in the northern and eastern provinces of the country. But with its radical ideology and tactics such as kidnappings and beheadings, the group has stamped its identity on the communities in which it is present, including, crucially, *areas surrounding the main border crossings with Turkey.

In the eastern provincial capital of Raqqah, which has emerged as the Islamic State’s biggest stronghold, clashes with more-moderate rebel units erupted twice over the weekend, killing at least 13 rebel fighters and civilians, according to residents.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/10/syria-al-nusra-front-jihadi

The al-Nusra Front, the principle jihadi rebel group in Syria, defies the cliche of Islamist fighters around the Middle East plotting to establish Islamic caliphates from impoverished mountain hideaways. In north-eastern Syria, al-Nusra finds itself in command of massive silos of wheat, factories, oil and gas fields, fleets of looted government cars and a huge weapons arsenal.

http://theconversation.com/radicalising-syria-how-the-rebels-are-becoming-more-islamist-16309

Al-Nusra has purposefully avoided the high-attrition city fights that characterise much of the Syrian conflict. Instead, it bases itself in the countryside and strikes opportunistically against strategic targets. This approach has a key tenet of the group, allowing it to develop and expand its veteran core and capabilities. Meanwhile, competitors waste their best and brightest in urban meat-grinders like Aleppo, Homs and al-Qusair.

You are having a laugh if you think these guys are not bedding in and expanding their influence. It has happened in Iraq (encroachment of radicalism in a once upon a time a secular state) and it is happening in Syria.

 

[LazyLion]

Syria Accepts Russian Proposal To Surrender Chemical Weapons, Foreign Minister Says

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/...pons_n_3898941.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009

The Associated Press reports Syria's Foreign Minister has said his country has accepted a Russian proposal to relinquish control of its chemical arms stores:

On Monday, Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem stated that his country welcomed the Russian proposal, which called for Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control and for the weapons to be destroyed.

No time frame or further details were given about the proposal. It remained unclear whether Syria was making genuine strides toward a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began in March 2011, or if the proposal was a ploy by Syrian President Bashar Assad to buy more time in the face of a potential U.S. strike.

More from AP:

MOSCOW (AP) — Syria said Tuesday it has accepted Russia's proposal to place its chemical weapons under international control for subsequent dismantling.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said Tuesday after meeting with Russian parliament speaker that his government quickly "agreed to the Russian initiative."

Al-Moallem added that Syria did so to "uproot U.S. aggression."

His statement sounded more definitive than his remarks Monday, when he said that Damascus welcomed Russia's initiative.

Meanwhile, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday that Russia is now working with Syria to prepare a detailed plan of action, which will be presented shortly.

Lavrov said that Russia will then be ready to finalize the plan together with U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

President Barack Obama said Monday the Russian proposal could be "potentially a significant breakthrough," but he remained skeptical that Syria would follow through.

 

[killadoob]

Yup if iraq carries on for as long as this war has, 300000 innocent people slaughtered, not casualties of war. That is where iraq is headed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Islamic_Front
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahrar_ash-Sham

Those are two of the biggest groups, let's call it 13000 and 20000 add in 7000 alnusra and you have 40000 just from those 3. FSA 80000 troops(no idea how many defections). Minority? I think not.

Again these are estimates alan, not fact. Kerry does not know either. Assad is claiming 90% of the forces he is fighting are extremists. Do we believe him or do we believe kerry who blatantly lied about the threat?

 

[Alan]

You are having a laugh if you think these guys are not bedding in and expanding their influence. It has happened in Iraq (encroachment of radicalism in a once upon a time a secular state) and it is happening in Syria.

Nobody said otherwise. What we are contesting is the notion that if Assad falls the country will turn into Afghanistan circa the late 90s. Seen no evidence to suggest that will be the case or it's even likely to happen. At most they might take over a few regions while continuing to engage in a civil war with secular forces. If anything the fall of Assad will strengthen the fight against extremists as both the remnants of Syrian army and secular rebels along with the support of the majority of Syrian Sunni, Alawite and Christians will then focus their attention on the extremists.

 

[thestaggy]

Nobody said otherwise. What we are contesting is the notion that if Assad falls the country will turn into Afghanistan circa the late 90s. Seen no evidence to suggest that will be the case or it's even likely to happen. At most they might take over a few regions while continuing to engage in a civil war with secular forces. If anything the fall of Assad will strengthen the fight against extremists as both the remnants of Syrian army and secular rebels along with the support of the majority of Syrian Sunni, Alawite and Christians will then focus their attention on the extremists.

All depends on how bad the blood is between the former enemies. And even if they do join they will not have the unity of battle-hardened fanatics that have a common goal.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

@thestaggy, I didn't say they aren't an issue, or that it's of negligible importance, just that killa seems to have this odd hop-skip-and-jump equation in his head where the moment Assad falls these demented Islamists will take over and turn it into Afghanistan 2.0. He's skipping everything that could potentially happen in between.

That's why I said a more low-key period of protracted tension seems more likely to me. If secular rebels and Islamist rebels start fighting the civil war will just be extended on a different front. But Al-Nusra won't simply march into Damascus willy-nilly, take over the government in its totality and implement its own brutal brand of Shariah law. It's also quite probable that you will have fallouts erupting between the different Islamist groups. They're being held together because they're all opposed to Assad, not because their cause or ideologies are identical.

 

[LazyLion]

Obama strike threat is the butt of Syrian Jokes

A Syrian caricature shows US President Barack Obama smile and pluck the petals of a daisy, as he wonders, "Should I bomb? Or shouldn't I bomb?"

While delays a strike against President Bashar al-Assad's regime that was thought imminent a week ago, Syrians on both sides of their civil war are resorting to black humour, sharing jokes and cartoons via mobile phone and the Internet.

After saying he had the authority to act on his own to strike the Syrian regime for its deadly use of chemical weapons near Damascus on August 21, Obama then referred the matter to Congress for a vote.

Now, with the prospects of a quick congressional vote diminishing and Obama cautiously welcoming a Russian initiative that would see Assad hand over his chemical arsenal, an imminent decision by the president is even less likely.

That apparent hesitation to act has given both pro- and anti-Assad Syrians a field day.

One Syrian posted a picture of Obama on Facebook with a biting caption that reads: "When Congress gives me the green light to strike, I will ask my wife Michelle and my in-laws. If they say it's alright, I'll go ahead!"

Meanwhile, an Assad opponent said on the Internet he wants to "sue Barack Obama for spreading false information and for breaching the peace," 10 days after announcements were made of what seemed to be an imminent strike.

Another joke making the rounds on anti-regime Facebook pages was much darker, more than two years into a conflict that has left more than 100,000 dead.

"Mr President, you are right. We should wait another three years until the Syrian people are extinct," it read.

Cartoons mocking Obama's "indecision" made the rounds, with one depicting the US president as Walt Disney's Mickey Mouse.

Another joke makes fun of the US secretary of state, calling on Syrians to sign up for an imagined mobile phone service called John "Kerry, inform me at any cost" of when a strike would take place.

Some shared a joke about a man using unconventional means to propose to his fiancee: "Honey, let's wait till after the strike. We'll see what happens then."

Others told of a man who tried to convince his wife they needed to find a new home before the strike, while she replied: "Let's wait. Rent will be cheaper afterwards."

While the regime appeared not to have put in place any exceptional measures ahead of a possible, some commentators mocked the panic stirred in neighbouring countries.

"The Israelis have distributed gas masks, the Jordanians are on alert, the Turks are deploying anti-aircraft missiles day and night, the Lebanese are nervous, the Iraqis are lost and the Egyptians are following up on our news more than their own...

"Are we sure there's a strike against Syria?" quipped one Facebook user.

Another imagined Syrians gathering, as they would to watch a football match, around "giant screens in public places, to watch the military strike live".

"An evening with shisha and drinks," the Internet surfer joked.

The football theme ran through other jokes, as a cartoon mocking the idea that Obama's strike would hit sensitive targets showed players covering their groins with their hands.

"Hide them well. We want to continue having children," the caption reads.

With some 60 percent of Americans opposed to a strike, according to a survey published on Monday, Obama has placed both the United States' and his own credibility at stake over the matter.


Source : Sapa-AFP /sdv
Date : 10 Sep 2013 15:46

 

[killadoob]

You want a run down of how things will go orbital?

Hundreds of dead civilians from the strikes, perhaps a few thousand depending on targets, amount of people and so on but the general said they have a number of maximum casualties they won't exceed or will try not to exceed. So we know there will dead civilians, mostly the people assad is protecting.

From there the US won't limit their strikes they will go full blown libya style, planes, choppers, tanks, apc's etc all gone. Assad's army will start defecting in their hundreds because the writing is on the wall they cannot win without all their military equipment. Al nusra, the kurds and the FSA along with al nusras 2 buddies will all go to war while al nusra slaughters christians and anyone who supported assad. Hezbollah well i don't know setup defense on the lebanon border perhaps.

Now that is assuming assad does not attack israel. The FSA even though their number are greater will be slaughtered along with all the people under assads protection. Whether the slaughter is done by chemical weapons they now have in their possession or just gunning them down, women, children, men all slaughtered. FSA will be in disarray, there is no way the FSA soldiers are a match for these extremists who are well trained, willing to die for the cause.

That is how i see it and by no means am i saying i am right or it will happen but the likelihood is there for it to happen. Lebanon next stop but by then the US will be forced to launch an invasion, they may well launch the invasion as soon as assad falls.

That is a real threat and orbital that is the kind of scenario that is likely, there are many if iran get involved, russia etc.

To deny that is a possibility is nothing short of lying in my opinion. That is what kerry did. Ok that is my version how about yours orbital and alan, staggy etc. Gooi it lads. there is no right or wrong and there is no saying killa is a crazy oke and that cannot happen as will be my feelings on your assessments.

 

[LazyLion]

Killa, Dood! I think you have bitten off more than you can chew there.

That is not how it will go down at all. The strikes, if they even happen at all, will be very small and limited.
No ground forces at all in any way, shape or form.

 

[killadoob]

Killa, Dood! I think you have bitten off more than you can chew there.

That is not how it will go down at all. The strikes, if they even happen at all, will be very small and limited.
No ground forces at all in any way, shape or form.

Like the strikes in libya gary? Clear and limited in their scope was the mandate, what followed was 40000 bombs perhaps more dropped by nato(we know nato is basically the US plus their sheep). It went from clear and limited to full blown let's drop all we can on libya and remove ghaddafi, the mandate said do all you can to protect civilians, dropping 40000 bombs is not protecting civilians. They destroyed libya with bombs just like they did with iraq, just like the limited(well who defines limited gary? is there a number of targets that is the maximum) Once there is an approved resolution just like libya it will be abused and regime change will be the mandate and nobody can stop them because limited to me and you might mean a few targets to obama it could mean 100.

Why do you think russia and china vetoed action in syria? What is limited gary? Compared to libya i think 5000 bombs would be limited. No doubt the civil war will be over and kerry said no boots on the ground during the civil war, if al nusra or extremists threaten to get the chemical stock pile we cannot rule anything out. So he has worded it in such a way that when assad falls the civil war is over and the war on terror is back, meaning the president will now decide what action to take without the nonsense of congress on his back. He will have full control and obama will lead the US troops into syria to secure the chemical weapons.

 

[LazyLion]

Like the strikes in libya gary? Clear and limited in their scope was the mandate, what follow was 40000 bombs perhaps more dropped by nato. It went from clear and limited to full blown let's drop all we can on libya.

Why do you think russia and china vetoed action in syria? Just as international law is defined by them limited strikes is also defined by them. What is limited gary? Compared to libya i think 5000 bombs would be limited. No doubt the civil war will be over and kerry said no boots on the ground during the civil war, if al nusra or extremists threaten to get the chemical stock pile we cannot rule anything out. So he has worded it in such a way that when assad falls the civil war is over and the war on terror is back, meaning the president will now decide what action to take without the nonsense of congress on his back. He will have full control and obama will lead the US troops into syria to secure the chemical weapons.

That was then, this is now.
They have far less support for this than they had in Libya.

 

[killadoob]

That was then, this is now.
They have far less support for this than they had in Libya.

They had no support to drop 40000 bombs on libya and enforce a regime change. Limited in scope and protect civilians. Resolution meaning to the US, bomb the shyte out of them.

Gary let's not argue/debate, just put forward how you see it playing out.

 

[killadoob]

That was then, this is now.
They have far less support for this than they had in Libya.

That was obama, this is obama. What changed? Same president. Iraq was then and this is now perhaps i can agree with. I cannot agree with someone saying that was libya this is syria, it's the same man in charge. Chinese and russians were not going to get nailed a second time.

Like i said gary this is all theory, view points, there is no wrong or right nor am i trying to make a wrong or right here. I put forth my theory/possibility. Oppose it with other possibles. I am fairly certain you guys realize i am way more chilled than before, so bring on your theories, i won't tune you or laugh or say cult like mentality. This is pure possibles, no right or wrong just view points .