The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[surface]

Well it is a problem when the basket shows a favourable rate that isn't indicative of most people's situation.

Well if you come up with your own basket it needs to be realistic. I can not consists of 1 item that went up a lot. If you do it properly you should get about the same results. I'm sure if that's not the case someone would have done it and published better inflation figures by now.

I see what you mean and I am with you (really) but "basket of goods" is in economics which I don't really understand. If you guys are well versed with it, perhaps you guys can send ideas about some model that will work in SA environment.

 

[Scooby_Doo]

1.5% down to 14.49...

If the interest rate gets a bump today, that should come down further.

 

[rietrot]

1.5% down to 14.49...

If the interest rate gets a bump today, that should come down further.

Rates should stay the same, maybe even go down half a percentage to "simulate the economy".

 

[genetic]

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, in a note to clintes, said the weaker than expected CPI outcome for August would alleviate the expected upward trajectory in inflation for the rest of this year and into next year. This, she said, would reduce the pressure somewhat on the SARB to hike interest rates, even though globally interest rates remain in an upward cycle, particularly in emerging markets.

"As it stands, the lower inflationary pressures allow the SARB to consider leaving monetary policy unchanged for now. But overall the SARB does remain in a very unenvious position," he said.

https://www.fin24.com/Economy/big-d...s-as-sarb-set-to-announce-rates-move-20180920

 

[genetic]

Rates should stay the same, maybe even go down half a percentage to "simulate the economy".

This. Don't think it will go up by much, if at all.

 

[noxibox]

Agreed, hence the reason the figures are a bit skewed in order to favour the government and not really indicative of the real situation facing consumers locally. But then again, wonder if it works this way around the world....

No matter where you go people are likely to find their personal inflation rate doesn't match the official rate, because the official rate has to be a broad indicator and the goods have to be weighted in order to produce that broad indication. The goods included and the weightings will be adjusted from time to time to reflect changing purchase patterns. People can argue endlessly about whether the goods and their weightings are applicable, just as they can claim there is some conspiracy to make inflation look lower. Statistics South Africa do publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2016 Weights which anyone can read and they do say where they get their data.

 

[genetic]

SA Reserve Bank keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%

The rand remained stable in the wake of the announcement. At 15:26 it was changing hands at R14.42/$, up 1.8% on the day.

https://www.fin24.com/Economy/sa-reserve-bank-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-at-65-20180920

 

[BBSA]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1042769339672391680

 

[SaiyanZ]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1042769339672391680

So USA expected to raise interest rates on the 26th which means dollar strengthening. So the Rand will lose ground again and maybe head back towards R15.

 

[BBSA]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1044981301164617728

 

[rietrot]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1044981301164617728

Worrying that there so much uncertainty or so many traders/algorithms acting on a whim to move prices at every simple statement somebody makes.

 

[Visser]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1044981301164617728

She is smoking way too much green. The movements got nothing to do with Ramaphosa or what he said. In large, the international investment community already sees him and the ANC as a threat, hence the reason they are struggling to convince them to invest in SA.

 

[rietrot]

She is smoking way too much green. The movements got nothing to do with Ramaphosa or what he said. In large, the international investment community already sees him and the ANC as a threat, hence the reason they are struggling to convince them to invest in SA.

So what is it then? 1% isn't just arbitrary.

 

[genetic]

. In large, the international investment community already sees him and the ANC as a threat, hence the reason they are struggling to convince them to invest in SA.

BS. I think you're the one smoking too much green. The rest of the world seeing the ANC as a threat has nothing to do with instant movements. That'd driven by quick trade movements which often fall on the back of an announcement or event.

 

[Pho3nix]

So USA expected to raise interest rates on the 26th which means dollar strengthening. So the Rand will lose ground again and maybe head back towards R15.

Partly priced in already

 

[Visser]

So what is it then? 1% isn't just arbitrary.

Pre-trades ahead of the US announcements coming in the next 20 minutes. Somebody probably got some inside info or something. Most recommendations are already leaning towards a Dollar selloff. This could be part of it.

 

[rietrot]

Pre-trades ahead of the US announcements coming in the next 20 minutes. Somebody probably got some inside info or something. Most recommendations are already leaning towards a Dollar selloff. This could be part of it.

I think you have that the wrong way around, but we'll see. My bet US rate hike and dollar gain in strength.

 

[Visser]

I think you have that the wrong way around, but we'll see. My bet US rate hike and dollar gain in strength.

I am with you on this one, I thought so too, but the notifications I received the past hour changed. 9 out of 10 services I currently monitor has changed the Dollar to a sell against the major currencies.

 

[rietrot]

I am with you on this one, I thought so too, but the notifications I received the past hour changed. 9 out of 10 services I currently monitor has changed the Dollar to a sell against the major currencies.

Lol. That's a scam to take your money.

 

[Visser]

Lol. That's a scam to take your money.

This far not bad for me. I just bought out at R4k profit...