The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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MKFrost

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MKFrost said:
...Seems that R10.80 is definitely on the table now...
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Just topped out at R10.7949... back to the lows last made in Nov 2008.

Can it get any worse? Quite possible but personally I think we should see some consolidation before we get to R11.00 and from there we should see a pullback towards the R10.60 and R10.50 areas.


EDIT: (10:38) Just topped at R10.8096, expecting it to pullback from here.

EDIT: (17:57) Had a mild pullback but only to R10.77 before it popped up again to top out at R10.8331, should see a stronger pullback now with European markets closing for the day.
 
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hj2k_x

hj2k_x

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MKFrost said:
Just topped out at R10.7949... back to the lows last made in Nov 2008.

Can it get any worse? Quite possible but personally I think we should see some consolidation before we get to R11.00 and from there we should see a pullback towards the R10.60 and R10.50 areas.


EDIT: (10:38) Just topped at R10.8096, expecting it to pullback from here.

EDIT: (17:57) Had a mild pullback but only to R10.77 before it popped up again to top out at R10.8331, should see a stronger pullback now with European markets closing for the day.
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When do you think it will pull back to R11 levels again? This fall seems to be persisting...
 
Garson007

Garson007

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Sinbad said:
Hope you're not being sarcastic. I have those.
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No sarcasm. 7+% in the morning. It will drop obviously, but looking good. (Can anyone tell me what company it is that's doing so well?) If you have share saver though, it's not that great because the Midcap makes up such a small portion of the portfolio.
 
Sinbad

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Garson007 said:
No sarcasm. 7+% in the morning. It will drop obviously, but looking good. (Can anyone tell me what company it is that's doing so well?) If you have share saver though, it's not that great because the Midcap makes up such a small portion of the portfolio.
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True... Yeah share saver here
 
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MKFrost

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hj2k_x said:
When do you think it will pull back to R11 levels again? This fall seems to be persisting...
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Sorry for late reply, was out of the markets the past two days.

Think your question has been answered, see it stopped just short of 10.90 today.

Future predictions? Wish I knew... expecting $ to strengthen further which should put even more pressure on the Rand and add in our own economic figures which are just getting worse and worse, so I will not be surprised if we break R11 within the next week or two.

With that said, I've learned long ago not to make and or trust predictions, I just follow what I see and take the opportunities as they are presented, so take my predictions with plenty salt :D
 
Sinbad

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You can't blame dollar strength for this. The rand is losing against Euro and GBP as well.
 
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MKFrost

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Sinbad said:
You can't blame dollar strength for this. The rand is losing against Euro and GBP as well.
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The strengthening Dollar is a large factor and you cannot ignore that. All currencies are taking a beating against the Dollar.

With that said, [as I said before,] most currencies have however recovered far more than they lost against the $ since 2008 except for the Rand. While others where making hay we went into a one-way dive. Now that its crunch time the other currencies have some sort of a buffer while the Rand is already on edge and ready to take another dive.

So yes, the Rand has been taking a severe beating due to a large extend to our economy that is pushing out the one bad figure after the other. We had all the opportunity in the world to turn this around when the opportunities were there but we headed in the other direction.
 
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Africaner

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I don't see the Rand appreciating substantially before the coming general election. The world economy shows clear signs of recovery. Local economy is going the other way. We badly need qualified people. The messed up schools do not help either. The inflation rate is double the economic growth rate. Yet some of you chaps expect the Rand to strengthen. No way.
 
Jola

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MKFrost said:
So yes, the Rand has been taking a severe beating due to a large extend to our economy that is pushing out the one bad figure after the other. We had all the opportunity in the world to turn this around when the opportunities were there but we headed in the other direction.
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That ^

#ProudlyBroughtByANC
 
Garson007

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Africaner said:
I don't see the Rand appreciating substantially before the coming general election. The world economy shows clear signs of recovery. Local economy is going the other way. We badly need qualified people. The messed up schools do not help either. The inflation rate is double the economic growth rate. Yet some of you chaps expect the Rand to strengthen. No way.
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Um. The quoted growth rate is in general a real rate; inflation is already accounted for.
 
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MKFrost

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Just had a bit of a look at my the USD/ZAR chart. If technicals work out then we should see a rather strong pullback towards firstly the R10.60 area and if it can break through there it should go to around the R10.45. It all depends on this R11 level and if and how its breached.

If we break R11 we should see a strong pullback from there but as said, it will depend on that break. The higher we go above R11 the less the chances of pulling back below it. The ideal would be a hard and sharp break of R11 followed by a strong pullback to at least R10.70 or lower for starters.

And there goes R10.92 as I type....
 
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