The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[MKFrost]

Rand made a new low today at R10.4577. This is the second lowest it has been since April 2009. This level is also just a whisker away from the previous low in August of this year of R10.5059. The Rand will be at its lowest point since April 2009 [almost 5 years] should that level be breached i.e. R10.5059.

All indications at this stage are that we will touch R10.50 and may pierce that level to around R10.55/60. Highest I'm predicting it will go is around R10.80 but doubt whether we will see this unless the bottom falls out. From this area I expect to see a pullback to around R10.20 and even lower but doubt strongly whether we will cross the R10.00 level anytime soon.

Chart

 

[TelkomUseless]

There goes the petrol price...

 

[MKFrost]

There goes the petrol price...

Maybe not. If we can get a good pullback within the last week or so we might still avoid an increase. At this stage it seems like there is still an over recovery in regards to petrol which will mean that we might even see a slight reduction [:wtf:].

You can monitor the movement on this site. Its unaudited and not sure how often they update it, think daily if not mistaken. It shows you the value of over or under recovery for the present month. This value is then used to set the petrol price for the following month.

http://www.cef.org.za/images/petrolprice/daily.pdf

 

[TelkomUseless]

Maybe not. If we can get a good pullback within the last week or so we might still avoid an increase. At this stage it seems like there is still an over recovery in regards to petrol which will mean that we might even see a slight reduction [:wtf:].

You can monitor the movement on this site. Its unaudited and not sure how often they update it, think daily if not mistaken. It shows you the value of over or under recovery for the present month. This value is then determined to set the petrol price for the following month.

http://www.cef.org.za/images/petrolprice/daily.pdf

cool. thanks !

 

[Devill]

Rand made a new low today at R10.4577. This is the second lowest it has been since April 2009. This level is also just a whisker away from the previous low in August of this year of R10.5059. The Rand will be at its lowest point since April 2009 [almost 5 years] should that level be breached i.e. R10.5059.

All indications at this stage are that we will touch R10.50 and may pierce that level to around R10.55/60. Highest I'm predicting it will go is around R10.80 but doubt whether we will see this unless the bottom falls out. From this area I expect to see a pullback to around R10.20 and even lower but doubt strongly whether we will cross the R10.00 level anytime soon.

Chart View attachment 82117

Saw the Bloomberg report also had the longer term view (1 year) on the ZAR as mostly positive.

 

[MKFrost]

All indications at this stage are that we will touch R10.50 and may pierce that level to around R10.55/60. Highest I'm predicting it will go is around R10.80 but doubt whether we will see this unless the bottom falls out. From this area I expect to see a pullback to around R10.20 and even lower but doubt strongly whether we will cross the R10.00 level anytime soon.

Did not quite make it to R10.50, stopped on R10.4577 and dropped to R10.1769. Currently sitting at R10.1835. Might go back up a bit from here to around R10.25/30 but should come back down from there to test the R10.00/10 level.

Doubt whether the R10.00 level will break, if it does then maybe down to around R9.95 but this is a stretch, BUT then again this is the Rand.

 

[MKFrost]

Might go back up a bit from here to around R10.25/30 but should come back down from there to test the R10.00/10 level.

Went to R10.2367 and back down to R10.1203. Question now is whether the Rand will attempt the R10.00 level or not.

 

[Zyzzyva]

Went to R10.2367 and back down to R10.1203. Question now is whether the Rand will attempt the R10.00 level or not.

Grandma Yellen might have our backs. She is a dove through and through, although the taper risk is still there.

 

[MKFrost]

Rand is again heading for the R10.50 level. Made a high for today at R10.438 but the day is far from over.

R10.44/45 is the level to keep and eye on. If it breaks through then we might see a run to the previous highs at around R10.46 and R10.51.

 

[Cage Rattler]

Market talk of a South African sovereign downgrade - Unconfirmed

 

[MKFrost]

Rand is again heading for the R10.50 level. Made a high for today at R10.438 but the day is far from over.

R10.44/45 is the level to keep and eye on. If it breaks through then we might see a run to the previous highs at around R10.46 and R10.51.

Just topped out at R10.4923, does not look like R10.50 is going to hold it back.

If it breaks R10.50 the Rand will be at its weakest its been since March 2009 i.e. the lowest in almost 5 years.

To put this into perspective, at the height of the 2008 crisis the Rand went to its lowest level ever against the US dollar at R11.84. We are just a 134 cents away from that level.

A 134 cents might seem like a lot but its nothing if you take into consideration that it moved just under 180 cents today alone.

 

[Cage Rattler]

A 134 cents might seem like a lot but its nothing if you take into consideration that it moved just under 180 cents today alone.

Definitely didn't move 180 cents today. Not even remotely close to that.

 

[MKFrost]

Definitely didn't move 180 cents today. Not even remotely close to that.

Sorry my mistake, had my decimal in the wrong place and did not double check before I posted. Used to the Rand moving way more than the majors and jumped a decimal in my thought process. Movement for today was 17.25 cents.

Opened at midnight on R10.3198
High for the day at R10.4923
Movement R0.1725

Edit: Sorry used the opening instead of the low for the day, actual movement was 17.25 cents

 

[Garson007]

Market talk of a South African sovereign downgrade - Unconfirmed

Why, how? Why would the market think the government can't make their bond payments?

 

[MKFrost]

And there goes R10.50. Just topped out at R10.5064. :wtf:

Edit: Make that R10.5159

 

[Messugga]

And there goes R10.50. Just topped out at R10.5064. :wtf:

Edit: Make that R10.5159

Getting screwed on my Satrix and whatnot but at least the bit of gold I still have is going up in value thanks to this

 

[MKFrost]

Getting screwed on my Satrix and whatnot but at least the bit of gold I still have is going up in value thanks to this

I'm not complaining as I earn in dollars but this weak Rand is hurting in many other places i.e. fuel etc...

 

[Garson007]

The trend for the last two years has been extremely linear. This is very worrying.

 

[chicken247]

The trend for the last two years has been extremely linear. This is very worrying.

Linear is calculable, not? I find your statement puzzling. Surely unpredictability and a nonlinear Rand would be a worse option. Stabliity is key, I am willing to flip-flop on this if you present a coherent logical argument.

 

[MKFrost]

Linear is calculable, not? I find your statement puzzling. Surely unpredictability and a nonlinear Rand would be a worse option. Stabliity is key, I am willing to flip-flop on this if you present a coherent logical argument.

I think what he means is that it has been heading one way only and that is weaker.