The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[MKFrost]

Not looking good, ZAR just made a new low for this month against the US$, went all the way to R10.40140 and by the looks of it seems to be heading back to R10.50 territory. I'm expecting a pullback towards the R10.30 area later today but currently not looking good.

Currently sitting on R10.3885

Guess petrol will be going up in December.... just in time for the holidays....

 

[MKFrost]

I must say however, that this quite a massive change in a very short time. Did someone drop a hydrogen bomb on Johannesburg?

I mean 1% in 10 minutes and it couldn't have been automated mass selling as it has been worse earlier the day before the selling.

First Friday in every month is Non-Farm Payroll data in the US. News time was at 15H30. This is one of the biggest monthly news items on the forex calendar so watch every first Friday in the month.

Data that came out today was very positive for the US thus the sharp dip on other currencies. Euro and Aussie dollar dropped like rocks against the Dollar.

Edit: Attached a chart of the Aussie dollar, the red arrow shows the drop that came at news time

 

[XennoX]

Eventually our currency will be totally worthless. Maybe then we can switch over to the US dollar like Zim has.

Dollar? Nope. I'd switch to something more stable like the Yuan, GBP or AUD.

 

[Mortymoose]

Dollar? Nope. I'd switch to something more stable like the Yuan, GBP or AUD.

Er.... you forgot the Pula!

 

[Garson007]

First Friday in every month is Non-Farm Payroll data in the US. News time was at 15H30. This is one of the biggest monthly news items on the forex calendar so watch every first Friday in the month.

Data that came out today was very positive for the US thus the sharp dip on other currencies. Euro and Aussie dollar dropped like rocks against the Dollar.

Edit: Attached a chart of the Aussie dollar, the red arrow shows the drop that came at news time

View attachment 81363

We need a like button.

 

[Arthur]

First Friday in every month is Non-Farm Payroll data in the US.

Great info. Thanks! Like +1.

 

[MKFrost]

Just for interest.....

Attached is a monthly chart for the US$/ZAR. Each little block represents a month and each area between the vertical dotted lines is a year.

The red square was the 2008 financial crisis when the Rand went all the way to around R11.80. The red arrow is where Zuma became president.

You can see that the Rand has improved until around April/May 2011. Since then it has been downhill all the way and we are almost back to where we were back in 2008 with the financial crisis. So we have been on a negative trend for close on 4 years now.

PS: The chart is inverted i.e. where it goes up the Rand is weakening and where it comes down the Rand is strengthening.

 

[DreamKing]

First Friday in every month is Non-Farm Payroll data in the US. News time was at 15H30. This is one of the biggest monthly news items on the forex calendar so watch every first Friday in the month.

Data that came out today was very positive for the US thus the sharp dip on other currencies. Euro and Aussie dollar dropped like rocks against the Dollar.

Edit: Attached a chart of the Aussie dollar, the red arrow shows the drop that came at news time

but today is the Second Friday........

 

[MKFrost]

but today is the Second Friday........

Yes, but things have been a bit out of sync with the US shutdown. I think last months came out the 2nd Thursday just after the end of the shutdown in the US. There is various calendars where one can look up the dates well in advance but as a norm its the first Friday in every month and in summer its at 15H30 i.e. 8H30 in New York and in our winter months its at 14H30 due to the daylight savings in the US.

Next months will be on the 6th, the first Friday in December.

 

[Tun@]

almost call that an ascending triangle on the monthly? Can't read the values but that's got to be close to another R1 ? R11.40 or so if it breaks out northwards?

 

[DreamKing]

Yes, but things have been a bit out of sync with the US shutdown. I think last months came out the 2nd Thursday just after the end of the shutdown in the US. There is various calendars where one can look up the dates well in advance but as a norm its the first Friday in every month and in summer its at 15H30 i.e. 8H30 in New York and in our winter months its at 14H30 due to the daylight savings in the US.

Next months will be on the 6th, the first Friday in December.

good, thankx.

 

[Necuno]

View attachment 81371

 

[MKFrost]

almost call that an ascending triangle on the monthly? Can't read the values but that's got to be close to another R1 ? R11.40 or so if it breaks out northwards?

I guess you can but with an ascending triangle you have sort of level tops with the bottoms [lows] ascending. Here both bottoms and tops are acceding [higher highs, higher lows] so more of a bullish trend that is well established.

And yes the big question is whether its going to break through that R10.50 area. If you look at this last leg up from where it started back in 2011 you will see that each pullback was on the numbers i.e. [Fibonacci] either to the 38 or 61% retracement levels. If this holds true then we should hit the R10.80/90 area and pull back towards either the R10.10 area or if a deeper pullback then towards the R9.60/R9.70 area.

I'm however no analyst and never try and predict the markets, I just follow where it goes.

 

[Tun@]

Interesting - cheers

 

[cr@zydude]

Er.... you forgot the Pula!

The Pula is pegged to the Rand and the Dollar, so it wouldn't fit with the other examples.

 

[Sinbad]

The Pula is pegged to the Rand and the Dollar, so it wouldn't fit with the other examples.

No it's not...

 

[MKFrost]

No it's not...

Yes it aint, 1 Pula is currently worth R1.19 so its 'stronger' than the Rand at this stage

 

[cr@zydude]

No it's not...

I can't find the exact basket and rate, but the Pula does use a peg.

in contrast to the South African Rand, the exchange rate of the Pula is determined by the President on the advice of the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning

Botswana government

Subsequently, the collapse of the rand due to economic sanctions and disinvestment in protest over the apartheid regime resulted in further devaluations of the Pula, by 5 percent in July 1984 and 15 percent in January 1985, in order to maintain viability and competitiveness of local producers.

Bank of Botswana

 

[MKFrost]

That says nothing about it being 'pegged' to the Rand. A pegged currency is set at a certain value and will fluctuate with and at the same degree as the currency to which its pegged. The Pula moves at its own rhythm and is not set at a certain value to the Rand.

Currencies that are pegged against the Rand are those of Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland.

EDIT: The BWP (Pula) is pegged but not in the normal way. I'm not sure which currencies are used but if I remember correctly its pegged against a basked of currencies and they make use of what is called a crawling band exchange rate. I will see if I can find any info on which currencies they use.

 

[cr@zydude]

That says nothing about it being 'pegged' to the Rand. A pegged currency is set at a certain value and will fluctuate with and at the same degree as the currency to which its pegged. The Pula moves at its own rhythm and is not set at a certain value to the Rand.

Currencies that are pegged against the Rand are those of Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland.

EDIT: The BWP (Pula) is pegged but not in the normal way. I'm not sure which currencies are used but if I remember correctly its pegged against a basked of currencies and they make use of what is called a crawling band exchange rate. I will see if I can find any info on which currencies they use.

I know that the Namibian Dollar, Lotti and Lilangeni are pegged 1:1 with the Rand.

According to Investopedia:

The BWP is pegged to a basket of currencies, which operates using a crawling band exchange rate using the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (SDR) and the South African rand as reserve assets.