The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[Garson007]

Linear is calculable, not? I find your statement puzzling. Surely unpredictability and a nonlinear Rand would be a worse option. Stabliity is key, I am willing to flip-flop on this if you present a coherent logical argument.

Just because some metric is predictable, it does not mean that the trend is positive. The trend is very negative. You can take a ruler and check all the fall back points after new highs for the last two years and the trend line is pretty much linear. This is very worrying as it doesn't seem to be stabilising to a point. Compare it to the volcano in 2008 which was never going to last (because there was no stable trend).

 

[SoulTax]

I say let the trend continue. I arrive with my GBP next week and am loving the current trend for my own spending power. That being said, the weak Rand is not great for my family and friends left over there, so I can't be universally happy about it.

 

[chicken247]

The trend is very negative.

Ja, I thought about it again and I get your point. Like, if you borrow in $ (as our beloved goverment does) and the Rand declines, your drumsticks are cooked (as the taxpayers are).


Anyhow, I am sure there is a team of very capable people contemplating this every day, charting the best way forward. I can't do anything about it so I concentrate on stuff I can.

 

[MKFrost]

The Rand made a new low against the US Dollar at R10.5826 today just after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data in the US.

This is the fifth lowest it has ever been against the US Dollar. Previous lows were:

August 2010 @ R11.8603

September 2010 @ R10.7743

October 2010 @ R10.6819

March 2009 @ R10.7119

 

[Cage Rattler]

The Rand made a new low against the US Dollar at R10.5826 today just after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data in the US.

This is the fifth lowest it has ever been against the US Dollar. Previous lows were:

August 2010 @ R11.8603

September 2010 @ R10.7743

October 2010 @ R10.6819

March 2009 @ R10.7119

I think those dates are a bit dodgy. For example, Bloomberg has it at 11.8723 on 22 Oct 2008. It hit 13.81 on 21 Dec 2001 and I still remember putting in a offer to sell the dollar at 13.80 on that day and being immediately requoted at 13.24.

 

[MKFrost]

I think those dates are a bit dodgy. For example, Bloomberg has it at 11.8723 on 22 Oct 2008. It hit 13.81 on 21 Dec 2001 and I still remember putting in a offer to sell the dollar at 13.80 on that day and being immediately requoted at 13.24.

I think those dates are a bit dodgy. For example, Bloomberg has it at 11.8723 on 22 Oct 2008. It hit 13.81 on 21 Dec 2001 and I still remember putting in a offer to sell the dollar at 13.80 on that day and being immediately requoted at 13.24.

Yes, they are, not sure where my head was when posting that, clearly not where it was supposed to be. Think I saw the 8 of 2008 on the charts and brains kicked in 'saying' 8 = August and from there it was downhill all the way

The dates was supposed to be as follows:

Oct 2008: R11.8455
Nov 2008: R10.8131
Dec 2008: R10.6894
Mar 2009: R10.6825
Dec 2013: R10.5826

Above is only from 2007 onwards i.e. 5 lowest since 2007.

The latest low of R10.5681, was made today at around 14H00 and its just under the previous lowest low for 2013 of R10.5826. It did pull back a bit after making that low but stopped dead on the previous support and currently it looks like R10.60/80 is almost a given.

 

[MKFrost]

And there goes R10.60...

Rand just spiked from a low of R10.4713 when the markets opened today to a high of R10.6173

Guess petrol will be going up another 40 odd cents (if we are lucky) next month

 

[Garson007]

I still don't understand why the trend exists.

 

[bekdik]

I still don't understand why the trend exists.

Lack of confidence in the currency?

 

[Garson007]

Lack of confidence in the currency?

I don't know man, it's just too linear for me. Almost as if it is an electronically controlled pump and dump scheme. *Conspiracy* No, but honestly. I'm just curious why. Lack of confidence wouldn't be this linear, imho.

Not to mention it doesn't even begin to be a true valuation of purchasing power.

 

[MKFrost]

I don't know man, it's just too linear for me. Almost as if it is an electronically controlled pump and dump scheme. *Conspiracy* No, but honestly. I'm just curious why. Lack of confidence wouldn't be this linear, imho.

Not to mention it doesn't even begin to be a true valuation of purchasing power.

Mostly due to dollar strength. Most currencies have taken a bit of a beating the past week against the Dollar. The Rand however has been going in one direction only, while most recovered some what against the Dollar earlier this year.

I will say a mix of dollar strength and lack of confidence in SA. I mean, when last did anything great come out of the country, I mean something like the World Cup or similar that placed our name up there. Currently we are just another African country and slowly but surely slipping past our neighbours.

And the Rand made a lower low earlier, went to R10.6419 and as we speak its heading for R10.65. Currently sitting on R10.6398.

EDIT: And there it goes, just topped out at R10.6629 and still pushing more.....

2nd Edit: A new low in the past hour, down to R10.6967. R11.00 just around the corner....

 

[Spizz]

Any advice guys, I've got some USD I need to change this week. With the Rand sitting at 10.7063 at the moment, would it be prudent to hold on and see how it goes for a day or two, or just jump on the phone on Monday morning as soon as the banks forex dept opens?

 

[Rosaudio]

Any advice guys, I've got some USD I need to change this week. With the Rand sitting at 10.7063 at the moment, would it be prudent to hold on and see how it goes for a day or two, or just jump on the phone on Monday morning as soon as the banks forex dept opens?

I'm in the same position but with GBP.

 

[SoulTax]

I don't know man, it's just too linear for me. Almost as if it is an electronically controlled pump and dump scheme. *Conspiracy* No, but honestly. I'm just curious why. Lack of confidence wouldn't be this linear, imho.

Not to mention it doesn't even begin to be a true valuation of purchasing power.

Ye lack of confidence will show a linear trend. It is only catastrophe that causes the value to spike or dip at a drastic rate. Lack of confidence over years just slowly drops the currency value as there is no real need for investors to cut loses and run. There is just not much reason for them to put new money in, so the value will just continue to drop at a steady pace.

 

[MKFrost]

And we kick the week off with another new low, went to R10.7287 just a couple of minutes ago.

Seems that R10.80 is definitely on the table now. Any pullback should be held in check by the previous resistance level, now turned support, at around R10.69 area i.e. I do not expect any pullback to go much further than this.

 

[Garson007]

Given the trend, we'd need a dramatic turn-around in the next five years to enter under R9 again.

 

[MKFrost]

Any advice guys, I've got some USD I need to change this week. With the Rand sitting at 10.7063 at the moment, would it be prudent to hold on and see how it goes for a day or two, or just jump on the phone on Monday morning as soon as the banks forex dept opens?

Depends on the amount involved. One thing to remember though, with the current volatility the banks are bound to increase the spread (difference between buying and selling price) resulting in you getting a worse buying price for your Dollars.

There is no way of telling in which direction the Rand will be heading over the next couple of days. If I knew that I would have had a lot more in the bank than at the moment. Best you can do is to split the amount you want to bring back say into three portions and bring part back now and wait a couple of days with the rest. I've been bringing back on a almost daily basis for the past two weeks so I have lost some but I have also gained some.

 

[MKFrost]

Given the trend, we'd need a dramatic turn-around in the next five years to enter under R9 again.

Most countries managed to pullback the losses their currencies suffered since 2008 to a very large degree and some even went further and gained some more against the Dollar. Most of these currencies also took some heavy knocks over the past year when measured against the Dollar but most are still well above the pre 2008 problems meaning they have managed to claw their way back.

During this same period the Rand gained some but then walked off the proverbial cliff in early 2009 and have never looked back. We are almost right back where we were in 2008 meaning we have gained nothing in 5 years.

So while most currencies have clawed their way back and by doing so managed to buildup some form of buffer our currency went right back to the bottom of the 2008 black hole.

That previous low posted have just been broken.....

My opinion.... at the current trend we will be looking back at how cheap petrol was at R14.00/l

 

[Spizz]

Depends on the amount involved. One thing to remember though, with the current volatility the banks are bound to increase the spread (difference between buying and selling price) resulting in you getting a worse buying price for your Dollars.

There is no way of telling in which direction the Rand will be heading over the next couple of days. If I knew that I would have had a lot more in the bank than at the moment. Best you can do is to split the amount you want to bring back say into three portions and bring part back now and wait a couple of days with the rest. I've been bringing back on a almost daily basis for the past two weeks so I have lost some but I have also gained some.

Thanks for the advice. It was quite a bit I was transferring so I didn't want to play around too much in case it did suddenly drop. So I watched a bit this morning as it hovered around the 10.69 mark and decided to just pull the trigger half an hour ago.

FNB gave me 10.5749 which I was quite pleased with so can't complain overall.

 

[XennoX]

Brace yourselves - R10.7319. (Source: Bloomberg Anywhere App, @ 09h11)

R10.7519 @ 09h14.