The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[Garson007]

Either inflation will pick up heavily, as in Argentina (if you want to look at an exponential function in the real world, go look at their currency), or the rand has to pull back. We're not self sufficient enough not to have it affect our inflation.

 

[Jola]

Yup, but raising rates will kick us into stagflation and a depression. As it is, growth is nearly at a standstill.

The piper has to be paid ...

TANSTAAFL

 

[MKFrost]

And we start the week with another new low R11.2073

 

[Sinbad]

11.2248

 

[WaxLyrical]

It will come down. Its a cycle.

 

[Enzo Matrix]

It will come down. Its a cycle.

An upward trending cycle yes

 

[MKFrost]

It will come down. Its a cycle.

Agree, question is just whether it will be a correction and or reversal when it does.

In any case, I think we are well and truly stuck above R10.00 for the foreseeable future unless something drastic happens.

 

[MKFrost]

Just took a single lot short position on the Rand on R11.2502. Lets see how this turns out.

 

[Sinbad]

Just took a single lot short position on the Rand on R11.2502. Lets see how this turns out.

friggin speculators are half the problem

 

[MKFrost]

friggin speculators are half the problem

Hey, I'm supporting the Rand.. position involved buying Rands in the hope it strengthens, so far so good.

But yes, speculators are a problem but a minor one at that. They tend to drive prices in certain directions but not for extended periods of time. Usually just for smallish gains after which they get out and price soon returns to where it was. Not always the case but in most cases if the currency has a sound fundamental basis. If not then yes, speculators can have a ball with a currency and give the central bank of that country some major headaches.

 

[MKFrost]

Just took a single lot short position on the Rand on R11.2502. Lets see how this turns out.

Out at R11.1920 for a nice quick net profit of R5,735. That is how speculators roll...

On a serious note though, it seems like we might finally get some sort of pullback from here. Should have held on for longer I think. We might just get back to around R11.00

 

[LazyLion]

R11.3088

Bit of panic there after the repo rate increase?

IT'S SUPPOSED TO STABILISE YOU STUPID SPECULATORS!!!

 

[MKFrost]

R11.3088

Bit of panic there after the repo rate increase?

IT'S SUPPOSED TO STABILISE YOU STUPID SPECULATORS!!!

Its the Dollar screwing around. Traders are positioning themselves before tonight's FOMC meeting in the US at 9 our time. Keep an eye on the Rand then. Should make for some sports from around 9 to around 9:30 while they read the report of the meeting i.e. give feedback on the US interest rate, tapering etc..

 

[Devill]

Out at R11.1920 for a nice quick net profit of R5,735. That is how speculators roll...

On a serious note though, it seems like we might finally get some sort of pullback from here. Should have held on for longer I think. We might just get back to around R11.00

I also think once the dust settles it will go back to the R11 mark... well that is if the US policy does not give us some for of extremely unforeseen news.

 

[Garson007]

No way the US actually raises interest rates.

 

[MKFrost]

No way the US actually raises interest rates.

There's not much to cut in any case but I strongly doubt it. The big thing is about the tapering i.e. whether they will be going ahead/continue with the tapering, slowly start to withdrawing market stimulus.

If you guys thing the Rand took a knock then you must see the Turkish currency. It did not walk of the proverbial cliff, it did a full on dive and free-fall and everybody is waiting for the 'splat'....

In regards to the Rand. I think we should see it pullback to the R11.00 level once all this commotion is over. The fact that the rate was lifted will add some form of support. Just not sure whether it will be enough. Turkey did the same, lifted their rates with almost 5% early this morning and any gains was wiped out about an hour ago and after that it went into free-fall.

 

[MKFrost]

I do not have a chart of the Turkish currency but here is a screen grab of a news site to give you an idea of how it jumped.

 

[LazyLion]

http://www.nationalturk.com/en/rate...gainst-the-currency-crash-breaking-news-46783

 

[supersunbird]

This is all US BS, its not like the EMs suddenly has some fundamental flaw which they didn't have 3 months ago.

I don't mind though, just wish I had more to invest in both Developed and EM unit trusts but the rising cost of living (Petrol and food prices) in SA prevents that.

 

[Garson007]

There's not much to cut in any case but I strongly doubt it. The big thing is about the tapering i.e. whether they will be going ahead/continue with the tapering, slowly start to withdrawing market stimulus.

If you guys thing the Rand took a knock then you must see the Turkish currency. It did not walk of the proverbial cliff, it did a full on dive and free-fall and everybody is waiting for the 'splat'....

I still think the Argentine Peso has by far the most damning long term chart.