The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[MKFrost]

Not sure what's going on in the markets today but received an alert on the Rand, made a high today of R11.16 and then quickly recovered all the way back to R10.96 before bouncing to above R11 [again] and currently on R11.02.

Not sure whether it was news related and if so what news it was but it gave the Rand quite a boost.

 

[Devill]

Not sure what's going on in the markets today but received an alert on the Rand, made a high today of R11.16 and then quickly recovered all the way back to R10.96 before bouncing to above R11 [again] and currently on R11.02.

Not sure whether it was news related and if so what news it was but it gave the Rand quite a boost.

Presume it is around the labour talks from a local point of view. No idea what international news made it happen.

 

[MKFrost]

Just broke 11 apparently. Just need to stay above R10 until end of the month, after that it can go wherever it wants to

EDIT: Think its the gold price pushing it. Gold made a new [think] 3 month high

 

[Sinbad]

Some USA stuff being released at 15:30 - maybe some speculation happening?

 

[MKFrost]

Here is another reason...

Johannesburg - South Africa's unemployment rate eased to 24.1% of the labour force in the fourth quarter of 2013, the lowest in seven quarters, from a revised 24.5% in the third quarter, data showed on Tuesday.

In its quarterly labour force survey which polls households, Statistics South Africa said this amounted to 4.83 million people without work in the fourth quarter, down from 4.88 million in the previous three months.

The expanded definition of unemployment, which includes people who have stopped looking for work, was at 34.0%.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Slight-drop-in-unemployment-rate-20140211

 

[Sinbad]

Here is another reason...

I don't understand those unemployment figures.

"polls households"... but surely the majority of the unemployed actually don't have households?

10% of the population given up looking for work, however, is fkn scary.

 

[Sinbad]

Also:

RMB Global Markets ‏@RMB_GM 5h
At the end of Jan foreigners were dumping, on average, a huge R800m/day of bonds and equities. The average over the past week has been 0
RMB Global Markets ‏@RMB_GM 5h
The slow down in SA asset sell-off is enough to settle the rand temporarily.
RMB Global Markets ‏@RMB_GM 5h
South Africa still needs R200bn+ of inflows this year and any fresh negatives could send investors running for the doors again.

 

[MKFrost]

The Rand just broke through the R10.70 level and is currently trading at R10.69, right back to where it started off in 2014.

 

[lucifir]

that while almost all economists are predicting further decline ... shows you how much you can trust economists

 

[MKFrost]

that while almost all economists are predicting further decline ... shows you how much you can trust economists

True, for each one that says up there will be two who will say down. But with that said, everything runs in cycles. I personally see the Rand strengthening more to around R10.50 after which its back to the R11 area.

The fundamentals in this country at present is just not of such a nature to justify and or support a stronger currency. Our government debt aiming to hit 45% of GDP, our lackluster growth, increasing inflation and several other negatives just do not support the Rand in any way.

 

[lucifir]

True, for each one that says up there will be two who will say down. But with that said, everything runs in cycles. I personally see the Rand strengthening more to around R10.50 after which its back to the R11 area.

The fundamentals in this country at present is just not of such a nature to justify and or support a stronger currency. Our government debt aiming to hit 45% of GDP, our lackluster growth, increasing inflation and several other negatives just do not support the Rand in any way.

Agreed. I'm curious as to the rise though. There has been no significant changes that should warrant this, except for a slight increase in the gold price, which should not have caused this much of a rise.

 

[Sinbad]

Agreed. I'm curious as to the rise though. There has been no significant changes that should warrant this, except for a slight increase in the gold price, which should not have caused this much of a rise.

Probably the fact that there haven't been any stupid statements by anyone in government for a week.

 

[Drifter]

The mining strikes have a bigger impact than most people think.

 

[Garson007]

Market runs have a bigger impact than most people think.

Fixed.

 

[MKFrost]

The SA trade balance figures are due out in an hours time. Not sure whether it will have a big effect. Also quite a number of rather important news items on the calendar in the US this afternoon which should also have an effect.

If the Rand can hold onto its gains then R10.50 might just be on the cards.

 

[Drifter]

It seems to be getting stronger against the Dollar, but not strenthening at the same rate to the Pound. Why is that?

 

[MKFrost]

It seems to be getting stronger against the Dollar, but not strenthening at the same rate to the Pound. Why is that?

Could be Dollar weakness. A currency will not always strengthen/weaken to the same degree against other currencies as each currency is affected differently. For example, there might be very bad news coming out of the USA which gives the Rand a boost but at the same time there can be great news out of the UK giving the pound a boost. So the Rand will strengthen against the Dollar but may weaken against the pound at the same time.

 

[Devill]

Data out of the Euro zone is not as promising as was speculated, thus the ZAR "rallied" against the GBP and EUR a bit.

The data out of the USA was not really any worse than expected but there was no overly positive data either.

That plus the fact that SA has been keeping quiet and the Rand under valued...

 

[Drifter]

Learning quite a bit from this thread, thanks for the input guys.

 

[MKFrost]

Learning quite a bit from this thread, thanks for the input guys.

Have a look at this link, you will find lots of information on there in regards to the foreign exchange markets i.e. history up to now, the major role players, how pricing is determined etc...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market