The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Garson007

Garson007

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Europe seems to be in deep trouble; if the European Court blocks the ECB from lawfully pursuing a QE programme, we might just see the collapse of Europe.
 
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MKFrost

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Rand did so well today, opened at R10.68, lost some ground and went to R10.73 and then clawed its way back all the way down to R10.65. I thought that we would see R10.50 and maybe even a bit lower but then BAM......

Johannesburg - South Africa swung into a wide trade deficit of R17.06bn in January, about double what economists expected, after a R2.78bn surplus in December, data from the South African Revenue Service showed on Friday.
The data incorporates previously excluded trade with South Africa's regional neighbours Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland.

Exports in January ticked up 0.1% to R77.67bn, but were far outstripped by imports which jumped 26.3% to R94.73bn.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a trade shortfall of R8.5bn for January, but the data has traditionally been volatile and hard to predict.

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/SAs-trade-deficit-shock-20140228
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...all the way back up to R10.75
 
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MKFrost

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MKFrost said:
...I personally see the Rand strengthening more to around R10.50 after which its back to the R11 area...
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So it went down to R10.65 and as expected back up to R10.93. Currently back down to R10.75 and in a bit of a limbo as are most other currency pairs. Seems larger traders are waiting for the Jobless Claims figures out of the US tomorrow as well as the Non-farm payroll news on Friday (15:30 our time).

My guess.... think we will be back above R11 by close of markets on Friday.
 
Spizz

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MKFrost said:
So it went down to R10.65 and as expected back up to R10.93. Currently back down to R10.75 and in a bit of a limbo as are most other currency pairs. Seems larger traders are waiting for the Jobless Claims figures out of the US tomorrow as well as the Non-farm payroll news on Friday (15:30 our time).

My guess.... think we will be back above R11 by close of markets on Friday.
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So if you were me and had a decentish sum of USD to change to ZAR, would you wait until end of the week/beginning of next week even?
 
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Devill

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If everything in the Ukraine stays as is, it will help the ZAR stabilize.
I wonder if we can break convincingly through the 10.66 barrier, I am hoping the ZAR will form some resistance there.
 
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Flip-Flop

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Devill said:
If everything in the Ukraine stays as is, it will help the ZAR stabilize.
I wonder if we can break convincingly through the 10.66 barrier, I am hoping the ZAR will form some resistance there.
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It is sad we are now talking about R10.66 barrier. Is the the R8.00 or even the R7.50 barrier being filed under "The Good 'Ol Days" heading now? :(
 
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Messugga

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Flip-Flop said:
It is sad we are now talking about R10.66 barrier. Is the the R8.00 or even the R7.50 barrier being filed under "The Good 'Ol Days" heading now? :(
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According to Dr Azar Jammine from Econometrix, yep, those days are long gone.
 
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MKFrost

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Spizz said:
So if you were me and had a decentish sum of USD to change to ZAR, would you wait until end of the week/beginning of next week even?
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I do not predict I just follow :p

IMO anything above R10.50 at this stage is good. If we do head up chances are that we will remain below R11.

When looking at the US$ I will venture that we might target R10.30/20 area. As mentioned above R10.65 area very important. If that breaks convincingly we should see R10.30/20, if not expecting a bounce to around R10.80.

Big news out of the US tomorrow at 15:30 and that is going to set the trend for the next week or so.
 
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Devill

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Flip-Flop said:
It is sad we are now talking about R10.66 barrier. Is the the R8.00 or even the R7.50 barrier being filed under "The Good 'Ol Days" heading now? :(
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Messugga said:
According to Dr Azar Jammine from Econometrix, yep, those days are long gone.
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Anyone saying they know that the ZAR will not go under X for the next 5 years is a fool.

However I do not think that we will see R8.00 levels any time soon unless something drastically changes in the world.

Last year's view from most places was the USD / ZAR would be trading at around the current levels or even a touch lower come the third 1/4 of the year, iirc.
 
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Midnight_choir_drunk

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Devill said:
Anyone saying they know that the ZAR will not go under X for the next 5 years is a fool.

However I do not think that we will see R8.00 levels any time soon unless something drastically changes in the world.

Last year's view from most places was the USD / ZAR would be trading at around the current levels or even a touch lower come the third 1/4 of the year, iirc.
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Yes. Every single time this happens every few years we get the same doom and gloom. In a matter of months the rand WILL be back around 8 to the dollar (hopefully not less) but let's enjoy our undervalued currency while we can. Most developing economies would love to have the same "problem" of an undervalued currency to enhance exports.

So petrol is a bit more expensive (by our standards, by world standards still reasonable). Truly if we are reliant on a low fuel cost to float our economy we're screwed anyway.
 
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MKFrost

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Midnight_choir_drunk said:
Yes. Every single time this happens every few years we get the same doom and gloom. In a matter of months the rand WILL be back around 8 to the dollar (hopefully not less) but let's enjoy our undervalued currency while we can. Most developing economies would love to have the same "problem" of an undervalued currency to enhance exports.

So petrol is a bit more expensive (by our standards, by world standards still reasonable). Truly if we are reliant on a low fuel cost to float our economy we're screwed anyway.
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Doubt whether we will go sub R9 and I also doubt whether we will even get below R10 for any prolonged period. The fundamentals in the economy are just not there for the currency to appreciate that much.

Also, if we were seriously exporting then yes the weak currency would be good but if you look at our trade balance you will see that things have turned around in a serious way i.e. we are importing far more than we are exporting so any benefit is lost.

What worries me is that the Rand is not doing well in comparison to other emerging currencies. If one just go and look at the past week. We have had some dollar weakness in the markets and most currencies have clawed back large parts of their earlier losses. The Rand has as well but not nearly to the same extend.

The Dollar weakness will not remain for long as everything runs in cycles and my concern is that the Rand would not have appreciated by enough when the next round of Dollar strength comes on.

But lets see what happens in a couple of hours time (15:30) as that is usually the trend setter for the next week or so.
 
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Midnight_choir_drunk

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DreamKing said:
anc loses this year election. :p
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Is associating all the world evils to the ANC the true, sole reason you derive any semblance of fortitude to survive the day ?

South Africa's economic faults lie absolutely in the hands of the average citizen. To face up to our flaws means accepting we are a uncreative and generally lazy people. And entitled mass of victim and loser mentality, self loathers. To pour all the blame of our woes into a government is not only convenient it's typical.
 
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Midnight_choir_drunk

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MKFrost said:
Doubt whether we will go sub R9 and I also doubt whether we will even get below R10 for any prolonged period. The fundamentals in the economy are just not there for the currency to appreciate that much.

Also, if we were seriously exporting then yes the weak currency would be good but if you look at our trade balance you will see that things have turned around in a serious way i.e. we are importing far more than we are exporting so any benefit is lost.

What worries me is that the Rand is not doing well in comparison to other emerging currencies. If one just go and look at the past week. We have had some dollar weakness in the markets and most currencies have clawed back large parts of their earlier losses. The Rand has as well but not nearly to the same extend.

The Dollar weakness will not remain for long as everything runs in cycles and my concern is that the Rand would not have appreciated by enough when the next round of Dollar strength comes on.

But lets see what happens in a couple of hours time (15:30) as that is usually the trend setter for the next week or so.
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Well that's why we badly need this incentive to produce stuff locally. Even if it doesn't directly lead to exports (which it will) it will at least hunder the need to import.

To argue that because we import more than we export therefore we need a stronger rand is to really continue down the same stubborn and harmful path.
 
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