The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[MKFrost]

This is all US BS, its not like the EMs suddenly has some fundamental flaw which they didn't have 3 months ago.

I don't mind though, just wish I had more to invest in both Developed and EM unit trusts but the rising cost of living (Petrol and food prices) in SA prevents that.

The problem is that the US invested billions in the EM markets and most EM markets, like ourselves, have become dependent on those investments to finance our budget deficit instead of getting our house in order. Now that things are going a bit tits up in the US they are pulling their money back home and we sit without our 'easy' money so things no longer want to balance so nicely.

So yes, problem in large is due to the events in the US but also due to EM markets that have become so dependent on those investments.

 

[Cage Rattler]

hmmm... some very long-term zar shorts busy closing their trades

 

[Sinbad]

Day's Range: 11.2394 - 11.3719

 

[dlk001]

The outlook for the platinum producers will also be improved by the depreciation of the rand against the dollar as investors shift funds to developed markets amid signs of some recovery - an outcome that also improves the fundamentals for platinum demand.

South Africa's platinum companies will soon start reporting year-end figures where it's expected that Amplats and Implats will post higher earnings with margins increasing. A better performance will also be recorded by Aquarius Platinum whilst Northam Platinum is expected to report a small loss owing to a 75-day strike at its Zondereinde mine.

http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/p...ses-differ-on-wage-talk-progress#.Uuod3PmSxu4

 

[Africaner]

Do you agree to what this lunatic is saying? Who is Martin Humphrey anyway? What does he know?
http://www.iol.co.za/the-star/letter-shrinking-rand-a-wake-up-call-1.1639578#

 

[Zyzzyva]

Do you agree to what this lunatic is saying? Who is Martin Humphrey anyway? What does he know?
http://www.iol.co.za/the-star/letter-shrinking-rand-a-wake-up-call-1.1639578#

He is spot on.

 

[The_Assimilator]

He is spot on.

Yup. All the people saying that the rand must remain weak because SA is an "export driven economy" need to STFU and wake up to the facts - if you can't afford to employ the people who are manufacturing your exports, then you ain't gonna have any exports. Take your short-sighted heads out of the sand.

 

[Garson007]

As long as we have a third world economy mentality the weaker rand will benefit us, albeit marginally as you can't go backwards far enough. The problem is that we can't compete with the third world. It's first world or bust. Mechanise. Industrialise. Get rid of the communists in government that's forcing our economy to carry the burden of too much labour.

 

[Garson007]

It seems to have stabilized for the while. Bit high, but it would at least stop heavy inflation in the medium term.

 

[MKFrost]

I think we should see it pullback to the R11.00 level once all this commotion is over. The fact that the rate was lifted will add some form of support. Just not sure whether it will be enough.

Now thinking more the R10.80 or even R10.50 areas but we first have to break R11 and after that the previous support at R10.90. Its looking good thus far but its a big news week in terms of US financial data so anything can happen.

 

[Africaner]

10:50 ? ? ? I hope is not going to 11:50 ATM hovers around 11:11 and the American markets are just kicking in for the week

 

[Africaner]

And the US markets have kicked in and the Rand is once again on the back foot. 11,25 to 11,28 to the dollar

 

[Seriously]

Do you agree to what this lunatic is saying? Who is Martin Humphrey anyway? What does he know?
http://www.iol.co.za/the-star/letter-shrinking-rand-a-wake-up-call-1.1639578#

Why is he a lunatic in your eyes?

 

[MKFrost]

Some good news for a change. The Rand has managed to claw back some the previous weeks losses and went as low as R11.03.

Looks like we might just break below R11. Whether it will be able to hold onto those gains is another story though.

 

[Midnight_choir_drunk]

Some good news for a change. The Rand has managed to claw back some the previous weeks losses and went as low as R11.03.

Looks like we might just break below R11. Whether it will be able to hold onto those gains is another story though.

The posted article hinted at it. There's a reason the rand is one of the most traded currencies in the world and that reason is that it's predictable. Everyone panicking about the rand has amnesia. We've seen this so often in the past. I'll prepare my "I told you so" for a few months time when it's back around 8 to the dollar.

 

[Zenbaas]

The posted article hinted at it. There's a reason the rand is one of the most traded currencies in the world and that reason is that it's predictable. Everyone panicking about the rand has amnesia. We've seen this so often in the past. I'll prepare my "I told you so" for a few months time when it's back around 8 to the dollar.

All I can say is

 

[undesign]

The posted article hinted at it. There's a reason the rand is one of the most traded currencies in the world and that reason is that it's predictable. Everyone panicking about the rand has amnesia. We've seen this so often in the past. I'll prepare my "I told you so" for a few months time when it's back around 8 to the dollar.

Maybe. Perhaps. Hopefully. ZAR is also the most volatile currency in the world. And fundamentals aren't great.

 

[undesign]

The posted article hinted at it. There's a reason the rand is one of the most traded currencies in the world and that reason is that it's predictable. Everyone panicking about the rand has amnesia. We've seen this so often in the past. I'll prepare my "I told you so" for a few months time when it's back around 8 to the dollar.

Maybe. Perhaps. Hopefully. ZAR is also the most volatile currency in the world. And fundamentals aren't great.

 

[MKFrost]

I'll prepare my "I told you so" for a few months time when it's back around 8 to the dollar.

Think you will have to hold unto it for a bit longer than that. Think lowest we will go this year is around 9 at the outmost.

 

[MKFrost]

First Friday in the month and thus time for Non-farm payroll and employment data from the USA.

News gets released at 15H30 this afternoon. As always, not sure what to expect. My best guess is that the data will be bad which should see a rally in the dollar which in turn should push the Rand weaker.

The Rand managed to slip just below R11 [R10.97] around 18H00 last night but quickly moved back to above R11. Currently trading at R11.06