French Elections 2017

The closing polls (last polls before the elections) are all between 61.5 and 63% for Macron.
 
OrbitalDawn said:
How do you vote, f2wohf? At the consulate?
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Yes.

A friend is actually the assessor for Macron in Joburg.

Le Pen father bought 8500€ of fine wines and champagne on his communication allowance from the European Parliament (which use is very restricted and obviously does not include wine).

Bunch of leeches !

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Don't often agree with Krugman but he's spot on here.

But we should also be worried that a Macron victory will be taken by Brussels and Berlin to mean that Brexit was an aberration, that European voters can always be intimidated into going along with what their betters say is necessary.

So let’s be clear: Even if the worst is avoided this Sunday, all the European elite will get is a time-limited chance to mend its ways.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/...mailed&version=Full&src=me&WT.nav=MostEmailed
 
f2wohf said:
Who finances his opponent ?

Who wants a return on investment ?

Who the crime benefits to ?
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Who cares?!? The fact is Macron is as dirty as they come, lying straight faced to all of France about his tax dodging which is now proven. You're prepared to just forget all of that because the information may have surfaced via someone you don't like?
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
Who cares?!? The fact is Macron is as dirty as they come, lying straight faced to all of France about his tax dodging which is now proven. You're prepared to just forget all of that because the information may have surfaced via someone you don't like?
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What tax dodging ?

How is it proven ?

He didn't count renovations made in his wife's house as entering in his estate, and then the next year declared and corrected it himself, before SARS even saw it.

Le Pen has undervalued her properties by half... And is under investigation for it (amongst like 10 other investigations).

If you speak of Le Pen's accusation, he sued her for this and it will go to court. The papers on internet look clearly fake, I can see you've never used offshore accounts. You never sign them in your name but your lawyer signs it for you.

Being a banker he would know that better than anybody else...

Anyway, it's not like the Le Pen family didn't hide gold in Switzerland and then in Bahamas...

https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/amp....-france-le-pen-secret-swiss-account-mediapart
 
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f2wohf said:
I can see you've never used offshore accounts. You never sign them in your name but your lawyer signs it for you
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:crylaugh: ... uhm ... I do actually ... and yes you do sign for some of those in your own name, but well done for inventing yet more BS to excuse the dirtbag.

btw flinging more poop at Le Pen has zero effect at this stage, she was supposed to be somehow more corrupt, more vile, than Macron, when in fact they are both corrupt and vile. That revelation only damages the one that had a "clean" image previously i.e. Macron

I'm sure there is nothing at all untoward about these leaks though, the press has been threatened with a criminal offense just to keep it all clean and respectable ... :crylaugh:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN1820BO
 
Amazing how when this was leaked, hundreds of facebook and twitter accounts with no information start posting and retweeting the leaked info.

One account retweeting a tweet of one every minute for 24 hours straight.

Peculiar indeed ...
 
JayM said:
She's selling something the French people simply don't want.
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5 more years of Hollande-inspired economic policies and no solutions to the very real threat of Islamic terrorism might change that ;). Has Macron offered at all in dealing with Muslim extremists?

Hilarious that the French were so disappointed with Hollande (naturally - socialists can't run a bath nevermind an economy) and yet are going to elect someone who was in his government.

His talk of reform is pie-in-the-sky thinking. Not only are the French very much against reform (especially labour reform), he's extremely unlikely to get a majority in the French legislative elections in June to push through his agenda.

I'm not exactly sure what Macron is even selling? He seems to be everything to everybody...France is crying out for change and yet are going to elect a status quo pick.

I would've much preferred Fillion to have been in the second round with Le Pen since his economic policies are much more aligned with mine than Le Pen's and his wife was a big fan of Thatcher... :p. Fillion was at least offering something new despite being part of an established political party. I would've struggled choosing between the two in the 2nd round.

Macron is going to be a spectacular failure like Hollande was. Also note there is not huge enthusiasm for Macron...a significant proportion of his vote will be a "not Le Pen" vote rather than an endorsement of him or his policies...

Here is a summary of the debate that took place before the 1st round - at least Le Pen and Fillion were talking about Islamic terrorism. Macron like a true coward literally said nothing.

There was a brief discussion about Europe, the subject on which Le Pen has based much of her campaign, during which she said she was no longer prepared ‘to submit to the humiliations’ heaped on France by Angela Merkel. But for the bulk of her 15 minutes, Le Pen focused on Islamic extremism which, she said, ‘has been totally absent from the campaign’.

She’s right. One of the extraordinary features of the presidential campaign has been the reluctance of most candidates to discuss Islamic extremism, a reticence that dissolved on Tuesday after the arrest of two men who were believed to be plotting an attack on François Fillon. For the first time, one or two candidates realised that the threat is real, and not just some figment of the right’s imagination. In addition, on Thursday the trial began in Paris of twenty men arrested in 2012 on charges of plotting mass casualty attacks, underlining the fact that the country has been under sustained assault from Islamic extremists since Mohamed Merah slaughtered seven people in March that year.

Yet to listen to most of the candidates in recent months, one wouldn’t know it. Even on Thursday night, Emmanuel Macron couldn’t bring himself to utter the word ‘Islamic’ until the 14th minute of his interview, and then it was in the context of what has been happening in Syria. The centrist candidate, whose interview occurred after news had broken of the attack on the Champs Élysées, began by offering his condolences to the dead policeman, but he spent most of his time discussing education, tax and whether there is such a thing as French culture. Not really, concluded Macron, who said the richness of France lies in its diversity.

Fillon was the last of the eleven to be interviewed, and the conservative candidate began by declaring that the ‘nation is in solidarity with the police’. Explaining that the fight against Islamic terrorism was for him ‘an absolute priority’, Fillon sought to draw a distinction between himself and Le Pen by broadening the threat posed by the Islamists. ‘This danger is spreading everywhere, from Pakistan to West Africa’, he said. ‘We have to accept alliances with the Russians, the Iranians, all those who are ready to eradicate as quickly as possible these movements, not just the Islamic State but also Boko Haram, the Taliban. We must eradicate the fundamentalism inside the Muslim religion’.
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https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/emmanuel-macrons-refusal-talk-islamic-extremism-cost-dearly/
 
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Chris_the_Brit said:
5 more years of Hollande-inspired economic policies and no solutions to the very real threat of Islamic terrorism might change that ;). Has Macron offered at all in dealing with Muslim extremists?

Hilarious that the French were so disappointed with Hollande (naturally - socialists can't run a bath nevermind an economy) and yet are going to elect someone who was in his government.

His talk of reform is pie-in-the-sky thinking. Not only are the French very much against reform (especially labour reform), he's extremely unlikely to get a majority in the French legislative elections in June to push through his agenda.

I'm not exactly sure what Macron is even selling? He seems to be everything to everybody...France is crying out for change and yet are going to elect a status quo pick.

I would've much preferred Fillion to have been in the second round with Le Pen since his economic policies are much more aligned with mine than Le Pen's and his wife was a big fan of Thatcher... :p. Fillion was at least offering something new despite being part of an established political party. I would've struggled choosing between the two in the 2nd round.

Macron is going to be a spectacular failure like Hollande was. Also note there is not huge enthusiasm for Macron...a significant proportion of his vote will be a "not Le Pen" vote rather than an endorsement of him or his policies...
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You're right, he's not particularly good, but he's far less toxic than than her. And the French are pro-EU and very pro-euro - trying to peddle referendums when the population doesn't want them is not going to win you an election. I don't see evidence of this "crying out for change" by the majority either.
 
JayM said:
You're right, he's not particularly good, but he's far less toxic than than her. And the French are pro-EU and very pro-euro - trying to peddle referendums when the population doesn't want them is not going to win you an election. I don't see evidence of this "crying out for change" by the majority either.
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Yes I do think that was a strategic error (to focus on the EU) which shows up in the age bands...those old folk are VERY concerned about their pensions.

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Well I think the evidence is for change was Hollande's historical low approval ratings (definitely wanted a change from Hollande) + none of the two established parties got through to 2nd round.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Yes I do think that was a strategic error (to focus on the EU) which shows up in the age bands...those old folk are VERY concerned about their pensions.

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Well I think the evidence is for change was Hollande's historical low approval ratings (definitely wanted a change from Hollande) + none of the two established parties got through to 2nd round.
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The French are a bit more measured than to swing from a loser left wing socialist to a right wing nutjob. I think a move to the centre is enough change for them...I guess we'll find out soon enough.
 
buka001 said:
Amazing how when this was leaked, hundreds of facebook and twitter accounts with no information start posting and retweeting the leaked info.

One account retweeting a tweet of one every minute for 24 hours straight.

Peculiar indeed ...
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Not peculiar at all actually, it's the new normal. Hacking and social media bots are where we are with elections right now... In fact, given that Rosatom have an interest here, I predict the DA and EFF will be hacked, followed by inevitable data dumps and paid Twitter jumping on it like white on rice for our own elections in 2018.
 
Patrick_Hockstetter said:
I know how it works. But 37% still want it. That wont change.
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Perhaps, but if this plays out as most people suspect, they won't be getting the president of their choice today... Also, with a two thirds majority, Macron won't have to make any reconciliatory overtures to the right either.
 
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