French Elections 2017

NarrowBandFtw said:
The ANC is our parliament.
Le Pen isn't, nor is her party, the EU.

You confused yourself by comparing apples and pears.
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No, they're not. They're the majority party in Parliament.

I think many MPs and ANC members don't believe in the institution of Parliament. With your reasoning it's totally acceptable for them to collect a salary while not doing anything.
 
Paris shooting casts shadow over final day of French election campaign

A deadly attack on a police bus in the heart of Paris has dramatically changed the course of the French presidential election campaign.

The three main candidates canceled campaign events and instead made televised statements in which they competed to talk tough on security and vowed a crackdown on ISIS.
One police officer died after a gunman wielding a machine gun leapt out of a car and opened fire on the Champs-Elysees, Paris's most famous boulevard, as candidates were engaging in their final TV debate.

The far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, demanded the closure of all Islamist mosques. Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve accused her of trying to capitalize on the attack.
ISIS swiftly claimed the attack was carried out by one of its "fighters." The assailant -- Karim Cheurfi, a 39-year-old French national with a long and violent criminal record -- was shot dead as he tried to make his escape. Prosecutors said a note defending ISIS fell out of his pocket, although there was no previous evidence of radicalization. He was also carrying the addresses of police stations.
French authorities, including the domestic security service, began a counterterrorism investigation into Cheurfi last month after learning of his increasing determination to establish communication with an ISIS fighter in Syria and Iraq, a source close to the investigation told CNN Friday.

Center-right candidate François Fillon, Le Pen and independent centrist Emmanuel Macron canceled planned campaign events after the shooting. Under French election rules, Friday was due to be the final day of campaigning before Sunday's first round of voting.
It was unclear whether the attack would tip the balance of the vote in favor of Le Pen, who has vowed to take a tough line on "Islamic terrorism."
At a televised news conference Friday, Le Pen called for the closure of all "Islamist" mosques in France, the expulsion of hate preachers and the reinstatement of French borders.
People on the French security services' watch list for radicalization should also be expelled from France and have their French citizenship revoked, she said.


more:
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/21/europe/paris-police-shooting-champs-elysees/index.html
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EXPECT A LONG NIGHT

Our senior correspondent in France, Pierre Briançon, warns that your cardiac problems may last well beyond 8 p.m.

Pollsters are warning that they might not be able to provide an accurate picture at 8 p.m. as they always managed to do rather accurately.

There are two big problems this time:

1) Many polling booths that used to close at 6 p.m. this year will only close at 7 p.m. This will leave pollsters with less time to compile and compute their exit polls with actual results from a few key towns, as they always did

2) If everything is too tight for comfort, they will refrain from calling it until they are sure.
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French election: live blog
 
So it's Le Pen and Macron, with the latter having a few percentage point lead and all the defeated parties and candidates pledging to vote for him.
 
Good old Buzzfeed. Will give that a skip (also, it's in French).

After 20 million counted, Le Pen is in the lead, if only slightly.
 
Don't think Le Pen can beat Macron in the second round but i suppose stranger things have happened.
 
Man, I was sitting here to night with my french friends trying to speak to them in my broken boerfrenglish accent, everyone is talking about the issues and the difference is 1-3% in their elections. Back home we vote in an election knowing the ANC probably will win the next election and that people will violently protest. Realy democracy feels so different.
 
Interesting point about the election - the candidates from the two dominant parties in Parliament (95% of seats) both fell out in in the first round.

The legislative election is on the 11th and 17th of June.
 
The real winner of the French presidential election? François Hollande

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.

Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.

The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

Hollande’s second weapon was the media. BFM TV, the French equivalent of CNN, took a two-pronged approach, relentlessly attacking Fillon and Le Pen, while boosting Macron and ignoring questions about his own financial affairs. Although he made millions as a Rothschild banker, his declaration of patrimony suggested that he was practically penniless.

The print media followed. Journalists, who enjoy a special tax regime in France, which Le Pen had threatened to terminate, needed little encouragement.

Plenty of others piled in behind Macron. The EU, nakedly intervening, established a cell in Brussels to counter ‘fake news’ allegedly disseminated by Le Pen. Even former president Obama was enlisted, calling Macron just before the voting in an unmistakable gesture of support.

It is being said by some here that the victory of Macron represents the extermination of the socialist party, but this is hardly credible. Macron was himself a member of the party before resigning to reposition himself as an independent and he has admitted that he is a man of the left, although he has subsequently denied it.

While he intends to present a slate of candidates in the forthcoming elections for the national assembly, socialist stalwarts have rushed to endorse him, and will doubtless be rewarded in due course with ministerial appointments. His claim to have established a third-way political party is not credible. It is a party in which all decisions are apparently made by Macron and his inner circle and whose members have no apparent voice.

The French media will now rush to present Macron as a genuinely fresh face in politics and for a while at least they may succeed. But evidence that the voters love Macron is slim. His score in round one indicates that less than 25 per cent of voters regard him as their first choice. The concerns of many French voters over Europe, terrorism, the single currency and national identity will not be assuaged.

For France, the outlook remains grim. The worst of all possible scenarios has been avoided: a second round contest between the hard-line socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Le Pen. That would have provoked an immediate political and financial crisis that could have spelled the collapse of the Fifth Republic. Instead, the French seem poised to elect a President whose continuity with the failed regime of Hollande will produce five more years of social, economic and political stagnation. Next time, the French elite may find it harder to fend off a challenge from politicians from outside of the mainstream.
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I am not really following it closely enough to make an intelligent prediction. I think Le Pen has a few to many real scandals in her closet. Unlike Trump who mostly just said stupid things.
And the French are known to surrender when it really matters, so I'm going to go with Macron 60 Le Pen 40 in the final. I would love a Le Pen victory though. Shake up the establishment in the EU a bit.

Edit: What Le Pen need to win is for the opposition to continued to push the anti-nationalists identity politics agenda. 1 or 2 attacks would olso help. Its Macrons election to lose.
 
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The Voice said:
Good old Buzzfeed. Will give that a skip (also, it's in French).

After 20 million counted, Le Pen is in the lead, if only slightly.
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23.75% for Macron, 21.53% for Le Pen.

The lead came from the fact that the voting stations close 1h later in the major cities, where Le Pen gets almost no votes (she was at 5% in Paris).
 
CAC40 (Paris stock exchange) wins over 4% this morning.
 
rietrot said:
I am not really following it closely enough to make an intelligent prediction. I think Le Pen has a few to many real scandals in her closet. Unlike Trump who mostly just said stupid things.
And the French are known to surrender when it really matters, so I'm going to go with Macron 60 Le Pen 40 in the final. I would love a Le Pen victory though. Shake up the establishment in the EU a bit.

Edit: What Le Pen need to win is for the opposition to continued to push the anti-nationalists identity politics agenda. 1 or 2 attacks would olso help. Its Macrons election to lose.
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From what i have seen, this seems to be correct.
 
I see this thread is going to be another "Let's bash the right" thread.

Going to be so fun to watch when Le Pen wins the run off :p :D
 
Pitbull said:
I see this thread is going to be another "Let's bash the right" thread.

Going to be so fun to watch when Le Pen wins the run off :p :D
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With whose votes ?

She has close to no reserve of votes.
 
Pitbull said:
I see this thread is going to be another "Let's bash the right" thread.

Going to be so fun to watch when Le Pen wins the run off :p :D
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:crylaugh: , the circle jerk on this forum is quite the opposite.
 
Macron will get 60+% of the vote.

He's not that bad a candidate for France though, but if we were going pro-business then Fillon would have been better.
 
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