I think conditions will calm down in Q2/Q3 2026, more so toward Q4. The problem is, though, say AI pays dividends and expansions are pursued, that the enterprises could put in 12-month contracts to secure their allocations. This could potentially be upped to 18-24 months, but that increases the risk. It is a gamble that enterprisers are taking because it is tough competition, though there is the odd cycle going on.
This all impacts the consumer. The brands we all perceived as being pro-consumer are pivoting. Almost weekly now, there is a development that is showing investments into cloud, data centres, and AI being prioritised. Moves like this could accelerate gaming into the cloud... To be honest, I don't like this. The consumer is being outpriced, and that limits access to goods.
Anyhow, some good news is that consumer product production has been pushed back to a more relaxed window in 2026. Demand will still be addressed, but I won't trust the supply. The premium tag will linger, even with rebates.
Wake me up in mid-2026.
It won't, it isn't fear mongering, just cold hard facts., there is nothing to discount because there is nothing left in the supply chain.
Enterprise HDD supply is an absolute trainwreck right now — some SKUs are quoting nearly two-year lead times. CPUs aren’t far behind, with 4–6 month backorders becoming standard. NAND and DRAM are even worse: 2026 fab capacity is basically sold out, and parts of 2027 are already being pre-allocated to hyperscalers. If you’re not an enterprise throwing massive multi-year contracts around, you’re simply not on the priority list.
People keep acting like pricing will magically correct, but that’s not how this works. Even if the entire AI bubble burst tomorrow, it wouldn’t fix anything because there’s no inventory to drive prices down with. The supply chain is completely hollowed out. Whatever stock comes in is already spoken for long before it hits the channel.
And this is exactly why 2026 and well into 2027 aren’t going to improve. Foundry and fab expansions take 24–36 months, and the new capacity everyone keeps hyping won’t be online until late 2026 or 2027 — and even that capacity is already sold forward to enterprise clients. On top of that, manufacturers are shifting more lines to HBM, advanced DRAM, and AI-optimized NAND, which directly cannibalizes consumer-grade output. The AI demand curve isn’t flattening either; hyperscalers are locking in allocation through multi-year contracts, which shoves consumer supply even further down the ladder.
Add the ongoing trade war and tariffs into the mix, plus raw material bottlenecks — wafers, substrates, rare-earths — and you’ve got rising costs before chips even leave the fab. And let’s be blunt: you can’t lower prices without rebuilding inventory first. Right now we’re not low on stock; we’re past zero and deep into negative territory, with backorders exceeding production forecasts.
So no, prices aren’t going to drop. Not in 2026, and realistically not in 2027 either. The pipeline is dry, the future pipeline is oversold, and the manufacturing expansions needed to fix this aren’t coming online fast enough.
Bottom line: there are no discounts coming — there’s barely any product coming.
Ask
@Progenix Oj101, he will tell you pretty much the same. Get now, there is no next year, it is almost already too late now