SA Politics Thread Part 11: The GNU Normal

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TheChamp said:
Possible, which would still be interesting to see since I don't recall even the DA making that claim, but maybe she is in possession of information the DA isn't yet aware of.
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Probably a combination of polling and by-election results.
 
I mean if the DA internal polling is correct, Helen Zille/DA at 38% is almost double the ANC figure of 20%...and from the same article, some in the ANC have the ANC at 12% (which is unrealistic). No-one is catching the Aunty!
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
I mean if the DA internal polling is correct, Helen Zille/DA at 38% is almost double the ANC figure of 20%...and from the same article, some in the ANC have the ANC at 12% (which is unrealistic). No-one is catching the Aunty!
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It's at 38 without Zille.

Given how even ANC people Ebrahim Harvey want her to govern, she may push them into the 40s...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
It's at 38 without Zille.

Given how even ANC people Ebrahim Harvey want her to govern, she may push them into the 40s...
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The DA wants to get 45%+ for any semblance of a stable coalition. Unicorn outcome will be 50%+1 but not sure if in the realm of possibility
 
TheChamp said:
That's the problem, the DA's internal polling has never been correct.
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Incorrect. That's just your coping mechanism.

External validation:

Political analyst Susan Booysen says there is no reason to doubt the DA’s polling...
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While Wayne Sussman is quoted, he doesn't offer a comment on the validity of internal DA polling.

But most likely that it is true is that even the ANC are not disputing it.

ANC insiders who spoke to Business Day spoke did not dispute the outcome of the DA polling, with one Luthuli House staffer, who could only speak on condition off anonymity, admitting things could be worse.
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Sure, it's still a while until the 2026 municipal elections and obviously estimates closer to polling day will be more accurate, but the direction of travel is very encouraging for the DA and the complete opposite for the ANC.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Incorrect. That's just your coping mechanism.

External validation:



While Wayne Sussman is quoted, he doesn't offer a comment on the validity of internal DA polling.

But most likely that it is true is that even the ANC are not disputing it.



Sure, it's still a while until the 2026 municipal elections and obviously estimates closer to polling day will be more accurate, but the direction of travel is very encouraging for the DA and the complete opposite for the ANC.
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I asked you about Booysen earlier, do you have anything on that?
 
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