The LONMIN share price thread

I find this thread extremely fascinating. Has anyone here done some proper research into the company and its operations ?

Are their smelters running at capacity or just idling along , are they getting concentrate ? Are they producing product?
Is there a demand in the current market or in the foreseeable future? How much reserves in their stockpiles.

Can their operations ever be profitable with union demands.
 
Jaws677 said:
I find this thread extremely fascinating. Has anyone here done some proper research into the company and its operations ?

Are their smelters running at capacity or just idling along , are they getting concentrate ? Are they producing product?
Is there a demand in the current market or in the foreseeable future? How much reserves in their stockpiles.

Can their operations ever be profitable with union demands.
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I think this has been addresses on a number of occasions both here and on all major financial news websites.

It is not only Lonmin who is affected by current economical climates. The pain is felt across the globe.

In fact, Lonmin is scaling down. They are closing down some operations and will scale down operations a lot by 2017 in an attempt to bring down costs.

As for demand, there is just too many players in the market. The market is being flooded, which brings down demand. Most experts actually hope that some smaller players, including Lonmin, actually goes belly-up.

In addition, falling commodity prices are not doing any of these companies across the world any favours.

Yes, Lonmin is plagued with violent strikes, unrealistic wage demands, SA laws allowing these demands and strikes. This has a great influence on their current operations.

Also, there are serious concerns over bad management in Lonmin, which ultimately will cost the company severely.

I think Lonmin is currently in a correction, but it will level out. It is a dangerous time to trade in Lonmin, and they actually issued a sense in this regard.

I am glad for those who suffered losses and really do hope they can make up some losses. But, I do not see Lonmin surviving this ordeal.
 
I must say Toothless your posts are always good. I agree on all counts. It will be a sad day for every South African if Lonmin should close shop. We will all feel it in this country.

But to think buying shares in Lonmin now to cash in on a quick buck later is but foolish
 
Jaws677 said:
I must say Toothless your posts are always good. I agree on all counts. It will be a sad day for every South African if Lonmin should close shop. We will all feel it in this country.

But to think buying shares in Lonmin now to cash in on a quick buck later is but foolish
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This being the stock market it's not a simple case of black and white, yes or no.

You could have had the same opinion of Sasol at the end of 2008 through 2009 or a variety of other not so sure to succeed ventures and you would have been silly if you sold what you had then, or didn't buy at the time etc.

I agree it's a rather large gamble, but my point is you can't say with absolute certainty which way it will go. If you could then nobody would be making money.

Just looking at the Lonmin share price this week already many people in this thread have been proven wrong who said it would simply keep going down down down, yet it keeps going up up up. Nobody can say for sure when it will turn...if it turns.
 
SauRoNZA said:
This being the stock market it's not a simple case of black and white, yes or no.

You could have had the same opinion of Sasol at the end of 2008 through 2009 or a variety of other not so sure to succeed ventures and you would have been silly if you sold what you had then, or didn't buy at the time etc.

I agree it's a rather large gamble, but my point is you can't say with absolute certainty which way it will go. If you could then nobody would be making money.

Just looking at the Lonmin share price this week already many people in this thread have been proven wrong who said it would simply keep going down down down, yet it keeps going up up up. Nobody can say for sure when it will turn...if it turns.
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Exactly and that's why I'm not selling. There are a few people here who only think bad of the company, in that case, don't invest in it.

I took a gamble. I know exactly what I did and I'm not pulling out any time soon. This could go any way and want to make sure I'm in when it goes the right way.

It was a small amount (R2500) so if it goes ballsup, then so be it.
 
techead said:
just broke R19 for the first time
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I almost climbed in at 16 cents. Opportunity missed. Pleased to see its recovery. What I would really like to see is their recovery plan because the same woes they faced at 16 cents a share (before consolidation of price) are still there.
 
McT said:
I almost climbed in at 16 cents. Opportunity missed. Pleased to see its recovery. What I would really like to see is their recovery plan because the same woes they faced at 16 cents a share (before consolidation of price) are still there.
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Precisely.

Other than scaling down operations, lowering workforce numbers and lowering output, I have not yet seen any recovery plan by Lonmin. Other investors' concerns over bad management is haunting me too, in the sense that this money may actually be squandered. Soon the price may actually drop back down to R16, R15, and R14 levels.
 
The fact remains that certain investors are still making a killing with Lonmin shares considering it was down at R12 at one stage and now sitting pretty at R20.13. The fact of the matter is that no one can predict the future, however bleak it might look currently.
 
Toothless said:
Precisely.

Other than scaling down operations, lowering workforce numbers and lowering output, I have not yet seen any recovery plan by Lonmin. Other investors' concerns over bad management is haunting me too, in the sense that this money may actually be squandered. Soon the price may actually drop back down to R16, R15, and R14 levels.
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You've made your point quite often in this thread, why do you stay around if it's so bleak?
 
supersunbird said:
They consolidated the shares. So you have less shares now but at a higher value per share.

Someone who actually has lonmin shares can explain it further...
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Method said:
*cracks fingers*

Right: I had 6000 shares and now I have 60 shares. So for every 100 shares, I now have 1 share. The price per share did the same. Each share is not worth 100 times more than it's previous worth.

Aka

13c share now costs 13c x 100 = R13

I'm not good with explaining things in simple means. Hope this is clear :p
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Thanks for the explanation.

Lonmin went up 13% today. I bought some using R5k, thinking of buying more if there's a slight pull back intraday tomorrow.
 
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Sly21C said:
Thanks for the explanation.

Lonmin went up 13% today. I bought some using R5k, thinking of buying more if there's a slight pull back intraday tomorrow.
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You are a brave man putting that much into Lonmin at this stage!
 
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