The rand could fall to R19/$

bchip

bchip

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Kwadi said:
http://www.bdlive.co.za/economy/2016/01/27/pace-of-bond-and-equity-outflows-from-sa-quickens

And this is between 4 January 2016 and 27 January 2016 only. They number is increasing daily, but then again the exact same thing happened in Brazil last year ahead of their junk rating.
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Thanks, didnt see that.
Very interesting, I had a suspicion that overseas fund managers would be climbing into our bonds though.
Could be wrong then, if Im right we will see the rand strengthen significantly. Similar to 2008.

I'll try and keep track of this.
Thanks
 
O

Oopsie

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Prime example is the performance of Coronation's share price movement yesterday and today. Foreign money increasing it's AUM luring investors into the stock itself. Financials like Firstrand shooting the lights out.
 
bchip

bchip

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bchip said:
Thanks, didnt see that.
Very interesting, I had a suspicion that overseas fund managers would be climbing into our bonds though.
Could be wrong then, if Im right we will see the rand strengthen significantly. Similar to 2008.

I'll try and keep track of this.
Thanks
Click to expand...

Central banks may have lost the power to stop the global economy going into a downturn
‘So everybody is rushing into bonds, rushing into gold, platinum, and rushing out of banks’ – David Shapiro – Sasfin
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/safm-market-update/central-banks-may-have-lost-the-power-to-stop-the-global-economy-going-into-a-downturn/

Guess I wasnt so far off...
 
Thor

Thor

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bchip said:
Central banks may have lost the power to stop the global economy going into a downturn
‘So everybody is rushing into bonds, rushing into gold, platinum, and rushing out of banks’ – David Shapiro – Sasfin
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/safm-market-update/central-banks-may-have-lost-the-power-to-stop-the-global-economy-going-into-a-downturn/

Guess I wasnt so far off...
Click to expand...

This David guy has less than zero credibility.

He made a fck up with MTN and retatacted his claims.

Never before heard of him, but lately he pops up on the scene making and then retracting claims
 
bchip

bchip

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Thor187 said:
This David guy has less than zero credibility.

He made a fck up with MTN and retatacted his claims.

Never before heard of him, but lately he pops up on the scene making and then retracting claims
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David Shaprio is extremely well known however I don't agree with his analysis either.
In 2015 the markets already started selling of because of the impact of the USD and his only comment
was "oh I think theres some chatter about the dollar, nothing important."
Couple of months later...guess it was important.
In 2008 he was a permabull....all the way from the top.

After reading his reports for over 2 years and comparing to the quality of info coming from fund managers in the states
Ive learned to never listen to the opinions of SA fund managers.
Unfortunately what happens though is news report is half fact and half opinion, so you sometimes have to listen to the report though.
 
Thor

Thor

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bchip said:
David Shaprio is extremely well known however I don't agree with his analysis either.
In 2015 the markets already started selling of because of the impact of the USD and his only comment
was "oh I think theres some chatter about the dollar, nothing important."
Couple of months later...guess it was important.
In 2008 he was a permabull....all the way from the top.

After reading his reports for over 2 years and comparing to the quality of info coming from fund managers in the states
Ive learned to never listen to the opinions of SA fund managers.
Unfortunately what happens though is news report is half fact and half opinion, so you sometimes have to listen to the report though.
Click to expand...

He's a failure. He was wrong with every single thing that comes out of his mouth how people trusts their money with him I don't know.
 
O

Oopsie

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Imagine if every analyst and economist was negative. Where will the markets go? I am all for looking at the positive rather than the negative and try to hype the markets up and not down however bleak the situation.
The average investors always look at the "experts" views and act accordingly.
 
theratman

theratman

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Thor187 said:
This David guy has less than zero credibility.

He made a fck up with MTN and retatacted his claims.

Never before heard of him, but lately he pops up on the scene making and then retracting claims
Click to expand...

He's actually very well respected, you should listen to the moneyweb show. I tune in now and again.
 
Thor

Thor

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theratman said:
Then you should start fading his picks :D
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I trade some of his picks, but not all because I don't have enough moola to buy all of it so I only have a few of what he also likes if this makes sense?
 
Mike Hoxbig

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Every second Tom, Dick and Sipho now seems to have an opinion on what the rand will be in 2 years time...
 
O

Oopsie

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As I was saying earlier on. The ZAR corrects very quickly after each peak against the USD. This has now clearly happened as is ongoing. The daily highs have been lower and the daily lows has been lower over the past 4 weeks. Is this not an indication of the ZAR strengthening?
I pity those that panicked at the peak and went into USD. I stood my ground and stayed in ZAR.
Those posters that proudly shouted "I bought NEWUSD and DBXUS" are strangely quiet now as they nurse their wounds.

We will get back to the normal 2,5% pa weakening when this correction is done. This is not bad as investors will soon pile back into emerging markets and this seems to have started.

Emerged markets cannot grow at the rate of emerging markets and the savvy investors know this. The recent exodus was only due to fear of world markets tumbling but this is now unfounded as there are no similarities in this market to any previous market crashes. Will not happen.
The ZAR weakening to 25 soon is your own nightmare that only you will dream.
 
DrJohnZoidberg

DrJohnZoidberg

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Oopsie said:
The ZAR weakening to 25 soon is your own nightmare that only you will dream.
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While I applaud your optimism, I don't share it.

Unless there is some radical change in the government we're not going suddenly buck the trend and start gaining against the dollar. The Rand has consistently been losing ground for the past 5 years, I don't see what is going to stop this.

If we do, I'll make sure I have an edible hat on hand.
 
I

icyrus

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Thor187 said:
This David guy has less than zero credibility.

He made a fck up with MTN and retatacted his claims.

Never before heard of him, but lately he pops up on the scene making and then retracting claims
Click to expand...

And you base this on your extensive financial market knowledge?
 
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