The SA Politics Thread Part 6

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purple face said:
Checkout what Sky News said about John Steenhuisen

https://twitter.com/x/status/1801611252050923738
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The DA IS white led. I was hoping Helen might tone down her rhetoric, but the old goat is too stubborn. The DA is still parroting that they have "saved" South Africa. This sort of arrogance needs to stop if the DA wants to be accepted in wider society. She is fighting a losing battle. Race will always matter. I will be interested to see who the DA ministers in cabinet will be. I predict 4 will be white with one token black.
 
Announcement of speaker imminent:

The bells are being rung to call MPs back to the chamber. This means the votes have been counted.
-Jan Gerber
 
DStvNothingOn said:
First tantrum of the GNU, it's not even 5 hours old.

PA's McKenzie threatens to leave GNU if he doesn't get ministerial position
The PA said it wanted a meaningful portfolio from which it can make a difference in the country.

www.ewn.co.za

PA's McKenzie threatens to leave GNU if he doesn't get ministerial position

The PA said it wanted a meaningful portfolio from which it can make a difference in the country.
www.ewn.co.za
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If they agree to make him a minister he's going to think he's the president.
 
Neptuner said:
If they agree to make him a minister he's going to think he's the president.
Click to expand...

They won’t though. He has nothing to offer and him leaving the GNU has no consequences to it. They don’t need the PA.
 
This is making the rounds on WhatsApp. Interesting...

@DawieScholtz

1/ I've done a deep demographic analysis of the election result.

Read it comprehensively here: news24.com/news24/opinion…

It is paywalled, but I will share the key stats in the thread below.

2/ BIG differential Turnout. National Turnout by demographic group:

White: 71% (-6)
Indian: 64% (-5)
Coloured: 58% (-5)
Black: 55% (-8)

Overall: 58% (-8)

That's a +16% differential turnout gap between majority-white VDs and majority-black VDs. Huge help to the DA.

3/ Interesting detail within the black electorate. Black voter turnout by province:

KZN 60%
GP 57%
MP 56%
FS 54%
EC 51%
LM 51%
NW 51%
NC 51%
WC 50%

Turnout highest where the ANC got punished hardest. ANC needed higher LM and EC black voter turnout.

4/ Now we turn to voting patterns. Majority-white voting stations, nationally:

DA 73% (+5)
ANC 7% (-6)
FF+ 5% (-5)
EFF 4% (+1)
ActionSA 2%

DA halved the FF+ and took back the white Ramaphorists from 2019. Huge success for the DA here.

5/ Deep-dive on white Afrikaans areas:

DA 75% (+11)
FF+ 10% (-11)
ANC 5% (-3)
EFF 3% (+1)
ActionSA 1% (+1)

Here the swing from FF+ to DA is clear (and huge).

6/ Majority-Coloured VDs nationally:

DA 49% (-12)
PA 18% (+18)
ANC 15% (-8)

Huge inroads for the PA, taking from both the DA and the ANC. Getting these voters back will be priority 1 for the DA.

7/ Super interesting little detail in the coloured electorate is how it splits between Cape Town and large towns in WC vs. elsewhere:

Coloured Urban WC:
DA 60%
PA 10%
ANC 8%

Coloured Rest of Country:
DA 41%
PA 23%
ANC 20%

PA and ANC much stronger outside of the urban WC.

8/ Majority-Indian voting stations. These are mostly in KZN:

DA 71% (+4)
MK (+8)
ANC 8% (-11)

ANC more than halving here since 2019. MK actually getting more votes than the ANC here in the aggregate. DA will also be delighted.

9/ This is the huge one. All majority-black voting stations nationally:

ANC 53% (-20)
MK 19% (+19)
EFF 11% (-3)
IFP 5% (-)
DA 4.4% (-)
ActionSA 1% (+1)

Fascinating! DA and IFP exactly the same as 2019. DA doing 4.4x ActionSA overall. And MK swinging almost 20% out of the ANC.

10/ Then let's break down majority-black VDs by province. There are huge variations.

Majority-black VDs, KZN:

MK 52% (+52)
ANC 20% (-42)
IFP 20% (+2)
EFF 3% (-8)
DA 2% (-2)

MK just crushed everyone, except the IFP who was able to hold and slightly grow its share.

11/ Majority-black VDs, Mpumalanga:

ANC 58% (-22)
MK 20% (+20)
EFF 13% (+1)
DA 5% (+1)

MK was the whole story here...
12/ There's a fascinating sub-split in Mpumalanga:

Majority Black VDs in Mpumalanga, Zulu Speaking:
ANC 47%
MK 30%
EFF 12%
DA 5%

Majority Black VDs in Mpumalanga, Not Zulu Speaking:
ANC 64%
MK 14%
EFF 13%
DA 5%

MK made inroads everywhere, but just much more with Zulu speakers.

13/ Majority-black VDs, Gauteng:

ANC 53% (-19)
EFF 16% (-2)
MK 15% (+15)
DA 7% (+1)

ANC getting close to 50% with black voters only in Gauteng is totally unheard of. Mind-blowing. MK impact.

14/ Majority-black VDs, Limpopo:

ANC 79% (-2)
EFF 12% (+1)
DA 3% (-)
MK 1% (+1)

Here the ANC was much more resilient. Needed higher turnout.

15/ Majority-black VDs, North West and Northern Cape combined:

ANC 68% (-5)
EFF 18% (-)
DA 5% (-)
MK 2% (+2)

That -5% hurt the ANC, was part of the national wave (beyond MK) that drove it to low 40s.

16/ Majority-black VDs, Western Cape:

ANC 70% (-10)
EFF 15% (+4)
DA 5% (+1)
MK 2% (+2)

Again that -10 for the ANC here was part of the non-MK national wave...

17/ Majority-black VDs, Free State:

ANC 65% (-10)
EFF 14% (+1)
DA 10% (+3)
MK 2% (+2)

This one is a little bit of history. First time ever, in any election, that the DA hits double-digits with black voters in any province. They will be delighted with this result!

18/ Majority-black VDs, Eastern Cape:

ANC 75% (-6)
EFF 11% (+2)
DA 3% (-)
MK 2% (+2)

That -6% really hurt the ANC. Needed this to be stable. Part of the national wave that took it to low 40s.

19/ These are the stats. I will leave them with you to argue about the meaning.

Fascinating, historic election! Was an absolute privilege to have been there at the ROC to watch this one come in.
 
Mike7 said:
The DA IS white led. I was hoping Helen might tone down her rhetoric, but the old goat is too stubborn. The DA is still parroting that they have "saved" South Africa. This sort of arrogance needs to stop if the DA wants to be accepted in wider society. She is fighting a losing battle. Race will always matter. I will be interested to see who the DA ministers in cabinet will be. I predict 4 will be white with one token black.
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Again, should the whites just drown themselves in the ocean?
 
The results are as follows: 341 ballots were issued and counted. Eight spoilt ballots and one invalid. Didiza got 284 votes. The ANC starts cheering. Zondo asks for silence. Mente got 49 votes.
 
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