The SA Politics Thread

[Agent67]

I just hope, that whatever happens in 2024; the ANC don't somehow cling to power. Via coalition or not.

Yup.

Also, that should we have a new government, the coalition is stable enough to not cause pure chaos that next time round, people bring the ANC back in, because the "coalition experiment" failed.

If the UF holds the Gauteng Metros at least until 2024 and keeps getting things done in those areas, it will only work to their advantage. But if they don't...

 

[Agent67]

The ANC will continue on even if the fall below 50%. No other party comes close so a coalition wouldn't be that workable for the opposition.

It depends on where below 50% the ANC falls and who is the leader of the ANC.

47 - 49%: They'll rely on ATM, GOOD and Al Jama-ah to stay in power.
44 - 46%: If Rama is still the leader they'll most likely defer and go into opposition or form a minority government if the UF doesn't manage something. If NDZ or other RET take over, ANC will definitely coalesce with EFF (the worst ending).
<44%: ANC goes into opposition.

 

[R13...]

If they go below 50%; it leaves room for a coalition that does not include the ANC. So polls put the ANC at 45%. That would be game over, for them.

Also, if they're below 50% - they'd have to form a coalition to remain in power.

I am saying the ANC would find it easiest to form government. A coalition would have to involve all the other parties including the EFF (a coalition would be impossible impossible without their 10/11%). The ANC would only need a 2/3 of the smaller parties to form government.

 

[TheChamp]

The Witness | Your compass in the community

www.citizen.co.za

 

[Agent67]

They'd have to form a coalition to remain in power.

Either way, we'll have a national coalition government in 2024. The only question is who will be part of and who will lead said coalition.

 

[Agent67]

Free State govt wants intervention in Maluti-a-Phofung lifted, despite a R7bn Eskom debt | News24

Five years ago, the municipality was placed under administration after a complete failure to deliver services, simmering divisions in the council and a ballooning debt.

www.news24.com

Paywalled.

 

[Agent67]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569009611411431424

Facts.

 

[wingnut771]

It depends on where below 50% the ANC falls and who is the leader of the ANC.

47 - 49%: They'll rely on ATM, GOOD and Al Jama-ah to stay in power.
44 - 46%: If Rama is still the leader they'll most likely defer and go into opposition or form a minority government if the UF doesn't manage something. If NDZ or other RET take over, ANC will definitely coalesce with EFF (the worst ending).
<44%: ANC goes into opposition.

You don't think GOOD etc voters will have second thoughts voting for them next time as it's clear now that it's just a vote for the ANC?

 

[Agent67]

Malema's stern warning to corrupt members: You will rue the day you joined the EFF

EFF leader Julius Malema warned that the party could not fight corruption if its leadership ‘become part of palace politics and corrupt elite’

www.dailymaverick.co.za

 

[Agent67]

You don't think GOOD etc voters will have second thoughts voting for them next time as it's clear now that it's just a vote for the ANC?

No, tbh.

 

[TheChamp]

You don't think GOOD etc voters will have second thoughts voting for them next time as it's clear now that it's just a vote for the ANC?

That's a slightly tired argument, a vote for GOOD is a vote for GOOD.

 

[Agent67]

Political lawfare between Ramaphosa and Mkhwebane reaches new crescendo

The political battle disguised as lawfare between Cyril Ramaphosa and Busisiwe Mkhwebane reached fever pitch after a Western Cape High Court ruling declared the President’s suspension of the Public Protector invalid.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

 

[wingnut771]

That's a slightly tired argument, a vote for GOOD is a vote for GOOD ANC coalition.

 

[Agent67]

That's a slightly tired argument, a vote for GOOD is a vote for GOOD.

The problem is I would agree with you if we were talking about any other party like PA, AIC, COPE, EFF etc.

But the thing is with GOOD, where they don't outright coalesce with the ANC, they support the ANC... The same with Al Jama-ah.

 

[R13...]

That's a slightly tired argument, a vote for GOOD is a vote for GOOD.

True. Mulder served in Zuma's cabinet but that didn't mean a vote for the FF+ was a vote for the ANC.

 

[Agent67]

Mulder served in Zuma's cabinet but that didn't mean a vote for the FF+ was a vote for the ANC.

Did the FF+ coalesce with or support the ANC from then onwards? No.

 

[TheChamp]

The problem is I would agree with you if we were talking about any other party like PA, AIC, COPE, EFF etc.

But the thing is with GOOD, where they don't outright coalesce with the ANC, they support the ANC... The same with Al Jama-ah.

Same way the Freedom Front always support the DA?

 

[Priapus]

It depends on where below 50% the ANC falls and who is the leader of the ANC.

47 - 49%: They'll rely on ATM, GOOD and Al Jama-ah to stay in power.
44 - 46%: If Rama is still the leader they'll most likely defer and go into opposition or form a minority government if the UF doesn't manage something. If NDZ or other RET take over, ANC will definitely coalesce with EFF (the worst ending).
<44%: ANC goes into opposition.

So, then chances are very high for ANC government still, in 2024.

At least it looks like GP will go to a coalition that won't be ANC; if the UF here can stick together to show it works.

 

[wingnut771]

True. Mulder served in Zuma's cabinet but that didn't mean a vote for the FF+ was a vote for the ANC.

Things have changed a lot since then. Why is there no FF+ in cabinet these days?

 

[Agent67]

Same way the Freedom Front always support the DA?

Yes and?

Our politics are essentially divided between the ANC and its allies, and the DA and its allies... With EFF and some others like UDM being non-aligned (for now at least).