Scottish Referendum on Independence

[ponder]

Scotland's pro-independence First Minister Alex Salmond says an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound, but the British government says it won't agree to that.

How exactly would they stop that?

 

[ToxicBunny]

How exactly would they stop that?

I think a fair chunk would involve legislation around "exchange" controls etc etc etc...

They may not be able to stop it, but they could make it monumentally difficult for an independent Scotland...

 

[LazyLion]

SCRAMBLE TO 'SAVE' UK AFTER SCOTLAND REFERENDUM SHOCK
by Alice RITCHIE

Supporters of the United Kingdom began a fightback on Monday to stop Scotland voting for independence in next week's referendum after an opinion poll put the separatists ahead for the first time.

The shock survey put the "Yes" campaign two points ahead after months of a strong lead by unionists, causing the pound to slump to a 10-month low on fears that a break-up of the 300-year-old union was now a real possibility.

The leader of the Better Together campaign, Alistair Darling, insisted that other polls put the unionist campaign ahead but admitted it was "clearly very tight" ahead of the September 18 vote.

"We're in the position now where every voter in Scotland could potentially tip the balance in this referendum. But I am confident that we will win," the former finance minister told BBC radio.

The unionists are planning this week to publish a "plan of action" to give more powers to Scotland, detailing a timetable and process to give further tax and spending powers to the devolved government in Edinburgh.

Senior politicians from the opposition Labour party, including former prime minister Gordon Brown, will also hit the campaign trail on Monday amid signs that growing support among their voters for independence is driving the narrowing of the polls.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, the leader of the pro-independence Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), warned of "panic" in the unionist camp.

His deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, told the BBC on Monday that the pro-independence campaign was "still... the underdog in the referendum, but there's no doubt the momentum is towards 'Yes'. We will continue to work flat out over the remaining ten days of the campaign."

This weekend's poll has shaken up a campaign that until just a few weeks ago looked almost certain to end in defeat for the independence campaign.

The YouGov poll in The Sunday Times newspaper gave the "Yes" camp 51 percent support compared to the "No" camp's 49 percent, excluding undecided voters. Six percent said they had not made up their minds.

The two-point gap is still within the margin of error but Peter Kellner, the president of the YouGov pollsters which carried out the survey, said it was a major development.

"The 'Yes' campaign has not just invaded 'No' territory; it has launched a blitzkrieg," he wrote in a blog posting.

The poll finding was front-page news on British newspapers on Monday, with many running the same headline: "Ten days to save the union."

Amid continued uncertainty about the effect that independence would have on the British economy, including whether an independent Scotland would be able to use the pound, the currency fell to under $1.62 on Monday, its weakest since November.

Against the euro, it fell to 80.26 pence, a three-week low.

Scotland-based financial institutions also suffered in early trading, with Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group and Standard Life shares falling by more than two percent.

The poll has increased the pressure on British Prime Minister David Cameron, who agreed to a referendum but has been accused of failing to fight hard enough to keep Scotland in the UK.

Media reports suggest that some lawmakers in his Conservative party are discussing whether to call a vote of no confidence in the premier in the event of a "Yes" vote.

However, Cameron has insisted he has no intention of resigning and will lead the Tories into the next British general election in May next year.

Cameron spent the weekend with Queen Elizabeth II at her Scottish summer retreat in Balmoral, where the referendum is likely to have been a topic of discussion.

Officially the monarch has remained neutral, although some newspapers quoted royal sources as saying she is "horrified" at the prospect of a break-up of the UK.

London Mayor Boris Johnson, a Conservative, warned in a newspaper article on Monday that independence would be "an utter catastrophe for this country".


Source : Sapa-AFP /ar
Date : 08 Sep 2014 11:57

 

[ponder]

I think a fair chunk would involve legislation around "exchange" controls etc etc etc...

They may not be able to stop it, but they could make it monumentally difficult for an independent Scotland...

How about having a Scots Pound and pegging it to the GBP like done on some of the islands?

 

[ToxicBunny]

How about having a Scots Pound and pegging it to the GBP like done on some of the islands?

That would probably be the simplest solution..

But this is all conjecture, because I honestly don't see this referendum going the way of the independents....

 

[Ockie]

It would still be the UK though without Scotland as Wales would still be part of the Union and also Northern Ireland?

 

[Hamish McPanji]

That would probably be the simplest solution..

But this is all conjecture, because I honestly don't see this referendum going the way of the independents....

This is likeliest the solution that will happen. There is already a scottish pound, which only differs in appearance at this time.

The English are playing hardball at the moment on this, and I think it is having the opposite effect on the Scots. If the yes campaign wins, the Scots will tie their use of the pound to the portion of their share if uk debt they will inhwrit, and so will be a fair billion dollars question....will the English accept. **** yeah!

 

[ponder]

It would still be the UK though without Scotland as Wales would still be part of the Union and also Northern Ireland?

Suppose so but Great Britain would no longer be the same.

 

[MickZA]

The UK government is making a fresh bid to overturn a decades-long US import ban on traditional Scottish haggis.

Environment Secretary Owen Paterson will raise the issue with senior officials from the Obama administration this week.

Scottish producers had asked Mr Paterson to take action when he visited the Royal Highland Show in Edinburgh earlier this month.

Haggis imports have been outlawed in the US since 1971.

... a yes vote could scupper UK support for the Haggis

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-28070716

 

[cr@zydude]

How about having a Scots Pound and pegging it to the GBP like done on some of the islands?

The UK is saying no to a formal currency union. Think of SA with Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. The SARB has a massive influence on those countries, and they have pegged currencies.

What the UK can't stop, is unilateral adoption of the pound. Think of Zimbabwe and the rand. The SARB doens't supply the money, and has no formal agreement with or authority in Zimbabwe. SA can't stop the country using the rand though.

This would be the easiest thing for Scotland to do. The problem though, is that they would lose the Bank of England as their lender of last resort. They would also have no control over monetary policy.

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Scottish independence: New poll shows battle for Union neck and neck

A second opinion poll today confirmed the battle to save the United Kingdom is balanced on a knife edge, with the two sides level pegging after a dramatic surge for the Yes campaign.

The TNS survey showed 38 per cent of Scots back independence compared to 39 per cent opposed, a six per cent swing since an identical poll was conducted less than a month ago.
Among those certain to vote, the two sides are running neck and neck on 41 per cent each. Older Scots are now the only age group where there is a majority for the Union, it found.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...oll-shows-battle-for-Union-neck-and-neck.html

 

[ToxicBunny]

Scottish independence: New poll shows battle for Union neck and neck



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...oll-shows-battle-for-Union-neck-and-neck.html

Survey of 990 people..... quite probably way to small a sample size to give relevant results

 

[Ockie]

The UK is saying no to a formal currency union. Think of SA with Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. The SARB has a massive influence on those countries, and they have pegged currencies.

What the UK can't stop, is unilateral adoption of the pound. Think of Zimbabwe and the rand. The SARB doens't supply the money, and has no formal agreement with or authority in Zimbabwe. SA can't stop the country using the rand though.

This would be the easiest thing for Scotland to do. The problem though, is that they would lose the Bank of England as their lender of last resort. They would also have no control over monetary policy.

Why not just adopt the Euro like Ireland? Surely they will be applying for membership in any case if they are not given membership automatically?

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Why not just adopt the Euro like Ireland? Surely they will be applying for membership in any case if they are not given membership automatically?

Not likely to get EU membership. I think Spain would be the biggest opposition given they don't want Catalunaya to get any ideas.

Here are the three main options for Scotland regarding the currency:

And up to a point, he’s right. One of the major mistakes made by the unionist establishment is that of lecturing the Scots about what’s good for them. Scare tactics about the pound have only succeeded in further fanning the flames of independence. It was the wrong approach. They should simply have said, you can have the pound if you want, but just be aware of the price. There’s nothing in principle to stand in the way of monetary union with the rest of the UK, even if the leaders of all three main political parties have said they won’t allow it, nor could Westminster stop Scotland unilaterally adopting the pound – so called sterlingisation.

But both approaches would deny discretionary monetary policy, would severely limit fiscal and financial independence and would certainly be incompatible with the Scottish National Party’s vision for an independent Scotland, big on welfare and apparently impervious to fiscal constraint.

In view of all that’s happened in Europe, it is extraordinary that Scots could think monetary union with Westminster perfectly compatible with full scale independence. This is none the less the platform sold to them by the Yes campaign. All the evidence suggests that a shared currency without shared government doesn’t work. Monetary union requires a high degree of both fiscal and banking integration. That Mr Salmond proposes the very reverse is economic gobbledegook.

The reasons for this have been exhaustively explained elsewhere already, but bear brief repetition.

Countries with their own currency shouldn’t logically ever run into fiscal difficulty. In a downturn, when spending rises and tax revenue falls, they can always print money to cover the shortfall. The printing press also gives them the wherewithal to bail out insolvent banks, and thereby prevent wider economic collapse. With a shared currency, these privileges are denied, if only because more solvent nations tend to refuse liability for insolvent ones.

Any monetary union with the rest of the UK is therefore certain to involve a high degree of continued fiscal and financial oversight by Westminster. Without such controls, monetary union would be unacceptable to the rest of the UK. But with such controls, it would be equally unacceptable to Mr Salmond. Independence would count for little if Westminster continued to dominate Scottish affairs. The Scots can have monetary union if they like, but they cannot also have Mr Salmond’s promise of welfare-max, otherwise known as socialism.

Three other alternatives exist – the hard peg of sterlingisation, the slightly softer peg of a currency board, or a completely free floating independent currency. The last of these possibilities has been all but ruled out – and for fairly obvious reasons. Scotland has a lot of debt, both public and private. As home to the UK’s two largest banks, total debt is off the scale relative to GDP once financial liabilities are also taken into account. It would be impossible for the new currency to stand behind such mountainous foreign currency obligations.

And if sterling debt was redenominated in the local currency, it would be tantamount to default, creating a massive financial and economic crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-the-heart-of-Alex-Salmonds-Yes-campaign.html

 

[Hamish McPanji]

Not likely to get EU membership. I think Spain would be the biggest opposition given they don't want Catalunaya to get any ideas.

Here are the three main options for Scotland regarding the currency:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-the-heart-of-Alex-Salmonds-Yes-campaign.html

Yup, there is no guarantee at this stage that they would even be part of the EU, they might have to go through the same long (we are talking quite a few years) and difficult process that the Baltic states and other eastern countries had to go through to join up.

 

[cr@zydude]

Why not just adopt the Euro like Ireland? Surely they will be applying for membership in any case if they are not given membership automatically?

They would first need to apply for EU membership, and as others have said, Spain would be against it. The EU is against non-EU states using the Euro, and this is currently one of the issues with Montenegro joining the EU.

Also, Scottish voters may be scared of using the Euro, and promising to keep the Pound could sway people to vote yes.

 

[Arthur]

Interesting that it's older people who want to stay in the Union. Young people are gung-ho for independence. Wonder why?

 

[Hamish McPanji]

Interesting that it's older people who want to stay in the Union. Young people are gung-ho for independence. Wonder why?

World wars fought together? Differences in foreign policy opinions? Too much selective history brought up by Wallyam Wallace and Rob Roy stories? Devolution bringing about a more Scottish identity?

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Interesting that it's older people who want to stay in the Union. Young people are gung-ho for independence. Wonder why?

Maybe young people are falling for Salmond's socialist utopia that he is selling them.

 

[Spizz]

Maybe young people are falling for Salmond's socialist utopia that he is selling them.

Scots are socialists and the SNP have always had a socialist agenda. It's nothing to do with Salmond specifically as keeps getting repeated, that's the Better Together campaigners attempt at playing the man, not the ball by playing on his perceived unpopularity. They've made him a scapegoat in advance, in other words.

But yeah, when I was a member of the SNP (before Alex Salmond was leader btw), the membership card had the first point printed on the inside cover as socialism. Second was independence.