Will LLU really bring cheaper ADSL?

Do you think LLU will bring lower ADSL prices?

  • Yes

    Votes: 38 56.7%

  • No

    Votes: 29 43.3%
  • Total voters
    67
The answer is simple: No, just like a decrease in the interconnection fees did nothing for call rates.
 
all this talk and nothing is happening, just do all types and give companies a choice........maybe not
 
What influence will crime have on the cost after LLU?
 
Remember how we had all those articles about how Seacom would not lower prices, and we should not expect much, and the cost of international bandwidth was not really a factor in pricing, etc. etc. and all that other smelly BS??? Remember that?

I'm getting that deja vu feeling again.
 
Garyvdh said:
Remember how we had all those articles about how Seacom would not lower prices, and we should not expect much, and the cost of international bandwidth was not really a factor in pricing, etc. etc. and all that other smelly BS??? Remember that?

I'm getting that deja vu feeling again.
Click to expand...

+1:p
 
Two points:

1. An alternative to full LLU and
2. the statement below.

"According to Ewan Sutherland’s paper 'Unbundling local loops: global experiences', poor broadband performances are linked to 'the presence of a strong incumbent operator and a weak regulatory regime, a history of inadequate investment in infrastructure, and low levels of PC ownership and computer literacy'. All of the aspects mentioned above prevail in South Africa, which raises the question as to whether LLU will solve South Africa’s fixed line broadband performance problems.

1. The combination of Bit Streaming (as opposed to full LLU) with lower line rental fees is sure to increase the uptake of ADSL particularly if the line is a stand alone ADSL.

2. I do not agree that all the aspects mentioned in the article quoted above prevail in South Africa. There are much more PCs in townships than one may be inclined to assume. And the reason why the lines into townships project failed need to be investigated one of which I postulate is because the line rentals are and were too high.

Telkom cannot see beyond making easy money i.e. charge the most to those who have it, which creates bottlenecks to the uptake of ADSL and it making a profit. The 'shoot yourself in the foot' strategy is not working and will not work going further.
 
I dont believe that LLU will drop prices significantly
1) you will pay a local lead cost which (I believe) will always be equivalent to a telephone line cost to someone. (cover the cost of the last mile) Even naked ADSL will have this cost, it may be built in somewhere but it will be there. Even dedicated point to point data lines have a local lead (last mile) cost in the billing, and that is x2 (for each end of the circuit) I do believe that the way Telkom bills your ADSL is possibly the most effective way they could of implemented ADSL, they need to identify (and bill) that piece of copper from the exchange to your house and the telephone network billing system/line identification system was in place.
2) The "ADSL line" cost is one of the areas we will see price reduction. This is the infrastructure from the telephone exchange back to SAIX/whoever. At present this is controlled by Telkom and if your service provider installs their own backbone (or shared/common) then prices will drop.
3) interconnectivity costs from the common points back to your ISP will also affect pricing. I doubt that say Mweb will run a link from their data centre to each and every exchange in the country. There will be line aggregation somewhere and each of these will cost to establish and run. This will be in some cases be a new input cost for service providers.
Whoever provides this will want to recover their costs (and make a profit)

Breaking Telkoms monopoly on the connectivity (ADLS line) between the exchanges (last mile) and your ISP is where we will see major price reductions.

Oh I voted no but I think there should be a conditional yes (large price drop small price drop)
 
Garyvdh said:
Remember how we had all those articles about how Seacom would not lower prices, and we should not expect much, and the cost of international bandwidth was not really a factor in pricing, etc. etc. and all that other smelly BS??? Remember that?

I'm getting that deja vu feeling again.
Click to expand...

Never have truer words been spoken
 
Personally I think naked ADSL would be a welcome first step... that alone could strip R100/m from the price!

Of course Telkom will resist, knowning that many people will just cancel the voice side of their contract!

This is going to be a long story, don't believe any of the initial LLU deadlines will be met! Not even close!
 
http://thirdpipe.com/?tag=local-loop-unbundling



local loop unbundling




January 14, 2011

UK opens right of ways to competition



Most urban and suburban UK residents have access to far faster connections at lower prices than Americans thanks to strictly enforced local loop unbundling (line sharing). That gives any competitor the right to provide last mile access via the existing infrastructure. It’s not a giveaway, the competitor pays a fair market price to use the line. Not only does this foster competition that boosts speed and drops prices, it can encourage new service in under served areas.

Now our cousins across the pond are going one better. They’re opening the right of ways. That gives competitors access to poles and conduits at fair prices. This makes running new fiber economically possible, and could begin a while new wave of competition. Thanks to rational, common sense regulation, it’s very likely the Brits could end up with the most robust broadband infrastructure in the world in very short order.

You’d think this would shame the FCC into rethinking its strategy. As a matter of fact, the line sharing concept began right here in the US. It ended when the FCC determined that a duopoly constituted a competitive market. We’ve tried that path for over a decade now and it has led to stagnation. I strongly recommend that the FCC board spend a little time away from the cable and telco lobbyists and visit their counterparts in the UK and France. The most important component in jump starting next gen broadband is robust competition. Significantly improved, cheap broadband could even jump start the economy.
 
This raises the question as to whether full LLU will not simply result in a few of Telkom’s competitors cherry-picking exchanges like Sandton, Rosebank and other city centres to serve their corporate clients, and steer clear of the residential ADSL market where revenue and margins are much lower
Click to expand...
Dont understand why this point keeps getting harped on? Of course this will happen (like everywhere else ... albeit 10yrs ago), its the natural commercial/chronological progression of shared/full line unbundling.

Top exchanges will be cheery picked, allowing providers to differentiate and gain market share (in limited areas). These gains will add new revenues, which will fuel the drive to keep increasing them by expanding their reach (network). This is how the (free market) system works.

Does this make it wrong (elitist) or not worth doing, no like everywhere else you need to start somewhere. Its unfortunate that 3 lane highways cannot be built everywhere (metro, suburban, rural) all at once, but this does not mean we should stop building them. Eventually better roads will extend out to the extremities, in a form that matches the viablity of those areas.

ThatOtherGuy said:
how do other countries do it and why does it work for them? USA, Japan, Korea, UK?
Click to expand...
Markets like NZ & Aus would be more appropriate comparisons.
 
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BGE said:
Personally I think naked ADSL would be a welcome first step... that alone could strip R100/m from the price!

Of course Telkom will resist, knowning that many people will just cancel the voice side of their contract!

This is going to be a long story, don't believe any of the initial LLU deadlines will be met! Not even close!
Click to expand...

True. Just the fact that we can have naked ADSL will be a big benefit.
 
Whilst LLU might not drive down prices, if it allows another provider to install a DSLAM and provide faster/better service with lower contention ratios then that is already a win. There is currently no incentive for Telkom to increase bandwidth on existing DSLAMs or provide faster ADSL to areas where the speeds are limited to 384. The cost of the added infrastructure probably can't be justified. However, for a new operator looking to gain market share, this would be seen as an investment. Some providers are already running fibre to gated communities. Surely they will do the same in with full LLU.
 
SubliminalThought said:
Whilst LLU might not drive down prices, if it allows another provider to install a DSLAM and provide faster/better service with lower contention ratios then that is already a win. There is currently no incentive for Telkom to increase bandwidth on existing DSLAMs or provide faster ADSL to areas where the speeds are limited to 384. The cost of the added infrastructure probably can't be justified. However, for a new operator looking to gain market share, this would be seen as an investment.
Click to expand...
If another operator wanted services in such an area, Telkom would be forced to upgrade the DSLAM/IMAX/Backhaul to provide services as per the SLA between the parties.
 
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Not sure what affect it will have but more options for competition can only be good.
 
Having worked on the Telkom cables as a contractor for years I can tell you that the current prices are heavily subsidized by the voice revenue. Looking at all the costs associated with those operations, there is no way other ISPs can even dream of matching the current ADSLs pricing, it is very expensive to maintain copper infrastructure and that is even compounded by the thefts in this country. It’s all good to have dreams but I choose to be realistic. There might be price reductions but not in our life time. There is no question or doubt that SA is going the mobility route and even Telkom realized that, thus why they launched 8ta and since the decline in the voice revenue they are not even replacing the majority of the faulty or stolen copper cables. Keep the copy of this post and please read it in 2014. Peace
 
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