The SA Politics Thread

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theratman said:
Losing power in a city is small change compared to losing power nationally. If they get under 50% then they'll activate that last resort card.
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They should be able to get 5-8% from smaller parties.

At current rate, it looks like the DA is going to lose majority of colored voters outside WC to PA. PA actually beat them in this regard in JHB last year.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
2024 will be interesting.

My early predictions

- Big ANC decline
- Slight DA decline
-Pleateau for VF+ and EFF
- Action SA to spin a suprise (they actually seem to be appealing to the growing swing voter community in SA and some who don't actually vote in elections but who will vote for them out of South Africa First Policy and novelty).
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Mostly agree, but there will likely be a small increase for the DA imo.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Still, even dropped ANC could work in favour of the opposition parties like it did in the LGE.

I respectfully disagree (unless they're lucky anyway).
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Local government and national government are two, very different things, what does the EFF and the DA have in common with the DA at national level? Are they going to find common ground on expropriation without compensation? It's very easy at local government because it's all about service delivery.

Having said that things are going to change slightly with the picture you are seeing now, there are lot of expectations that are not going to be met by ActionSA, it's already clear that the vote they got in Soweto is as good as gone, there are already fights for positions, the road is still very long before they are a party that can make a serious dent at national level, being 4th with 4% or 5% of the vote is not a big deal.
 
TheChamp said:
Local government and national government are two, very different things, what does the EFF and the DA have in common with the DA at national level?
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It's hard to predict what happens but if we saw something from 2021, the EFF will vote DA if the ANC does not give into their demands and if it means they can destabilize the ANC further.

They don't do it because they want the DA in power but more with their long-term plan in mind.
 
TheChamp said:
Local government and national government are two, very different things, what does the EFF and the DA have in common with the DA at national level?
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Well, the DA does have things in common with the DA...

Jokes aside, we've seen that the EFF will vote with DA to spite ANC, which will most likely happen if Ramaphosa is in charge still by then.
TheChamp said:
Having said that things are going to change slightly with the picture you are seeing now, there are lot of expectations that are not going to be met by ActionSA, it's already clear that the vote they got in Soweto is as good as gone, there are already fights for positions, the road is still very long before they are a party that can make a serious dent at national level, being 4th with 4% or 5% of the vote is not a big deal.
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They only got 2.3% of the national vote from 6 MUNICIPALITIES on their FIRST TRY. They managed to siphon votes from both DA and ANC. That's a good sign that ActionSA speaks to all South Africans from various walks of life.

I honestly think they will get more than 6% (6 - 10% maybe?) on a national scale by then, if they keep this momentum.

All in all, I remain positive about 2024. With last year's LGE results and everything that happened the past two years up until now, I believe the ANC will fall in 2024 (it will be kinda poetic too in a way, tbh).
 
JuliusSeizure said:
2024 will be interesting.

My early predictions
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JuliusSeizure said:
- Big ANC decline
- Slight DA decline
-Pleateau for VF+ and EFF
- Action SA to spin a suprise (they actually seem to be appealing to the growing swing voter community in SA and some who don't actually vote in elections but who will vote for them out of South Africa First Policy and novelty).
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Yes, N/A, Yes and big Yes
 
Ok, so Rama has said practically nothing as of yet... Just referencing COVID, 1994, our constitution, the Parliament Fire, etc.
 
PrimeSteak said:
Ok, so Rama has said practically nothing as of yet... Just referencing COVID, 1994, our constitution, the Parliament Fire, etc.
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Be patient, basically all over the world 90% of what is said in these type of speeches is generic fluff. Wait for the 10% which usually comes in the middle somewhere.
 
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