Krag: ergste kom nog

[Robin Hood]

This is what the heading is of the Rapport: Krag: ergste kom nog

Suid-Afrika se kragkrisis is by die punt waar die hele land dae en selfs weke aaneen sonder krag kan wees. n Regeringsverslag waarsku dat die land afstuur op n stelselwye verdonkering ( system wide blackout )

There is still more, but itll take ma AGES to type it all, but it will give you a basic idea

If anyone can get a link to this original page of rapport, id appreciate it...thx

GOT IT!! but not from rapport -----> http://www.news24.com/Rapport/Nuus/0,,752-795_2259226,00.html

[Robin Hood]

If this statement is true in regarding to the BOLD area, we're stuffed!

[Sneeky]

All I can say is that it is summer and generally warm across the whole country now.
I would like to know what the historic increase in demand for power is during winter when compared to summer and how we plan on coping with it, considering the cold months are not to far away.

[Robin Hood]

What scares me is that we can be without power for even WEEKS!! :eek:

[HavocXphere]

I call BS on that article. The whole country is not going to go dark.

Before that happens, they will:
1) Triple electricity prices overnight.
2) Loadshed 50% of the country.

Sure, that will also nail the economy too, but it would not be total darkness.

[[OUPA]MrNutz]

Know a chemical technician locally at Lethabo powerplant - 6 units in total -currently only 4 being used ....1 has been taken offline = 3 online . 2 of the 3 are swopping turns for maintenance leaving just 1 out of the total 6 running "optimal".

my2c...the moment this blackout turns reality - die *** gaan spat.

[Moederloos]

I call BS on that article. The whole country is not going to go dark.

Before that happens, they will:
1) Triple electricity prices overnight.
2) Loadshed 50% of the country.

Sure, that will also nail the economy too, but it would not be total darkness.

Nope - could happen.

Just need one major surge, grid moves a couple of hertz off of 50, and the grid goes down. Badly. There was a very good article in the Sunday Independent on how it all works - I have not seen it online.

There are teams of people working to load shed to prevent that 50 hertz from going wrong - but if they miss something, or it happens too fast - good bye grid.

Imagine, for a second, that just as the day's peak arrives, one of the major power stations goes offline suddenly.
I am no expert, but will the grid monitoring people be able to react quick enough?
The reason for a "safety margin" is so as to avoid this constant risk of the grid collapsing.

Side note: they claim to have 6 groups of six people working round the clock to monitor this. Not sure about you, but if I was one of those people, I would need therapy by now. Those people are NOT monkeys - they are skilled "surgeons" - I cannot imagine that they are going to last long under this level of pressure.

[Robin Hood]

Yeah...like the Chernobyl desaster.

[schitz011]

I call BS on that article. The whole country is not going to go dark.

Before that happens, they will:
1) Triple electricity prices overnight.
2) Loadshed 50% of the country.

Sure, that will also nail the economy too, but it would not be total darkness.

You are assuming that a nationwide blackout will happen gradually.

I am sure you will recall the east coast blackout of a few years back, well there was one also in the east coast back in the 60's where it only took one little trip switch in one little transformer box to topple the whole system.

The peak load exceeds a certain level, it trips out, the load is reversed back to the station, hence tripping that one out, and so on..

My wife met with the regional head of Eskom for the Free State last week and was told that the threat of a nationwide total grid failure was very real and if it were to happen it would take them at least two weeks to restore power..

You assume by calling BS that the system is infailable and you simply make sure you set a switch or something to 'no national blackout' mode.. The real truth is that much of this is automated and as we know, one little problem can bring the whole system crashing down (anyone heard of windows? :D)

In an ideal world the system most likely works, but now we are juggling power back and forth like a hot potato (which doubles as a handy cure for AIDS too I'm told) and it's only a matter of time before someone makes a mistake (ever notice the power cut doesn't end at 2 hrs dead, but at say 2:10? Thats so they can shift power without tripping by having two suburbs draw power at the same time.

[Robin Hood]

ever notice the power cut doesn't end at 2 hrs dead, but at say 2:10? Thats so they can shift power without tripping by having two suburbs draw power at the same time.

...interesting :eek:

[Moederloos]

The other side is the 50 hertz moving because of excess power - before you laugh (too much power lol!), think:

Eskom tells municipalities to load shed 4000MW.
Sandton and Pretoria and Cape Town say - OK cool. That will give us 5000MW - nice.
They flip a switch - and the operators in Eskoms control centre see power become available on the grid - they expect this, so no hassles.
What they do not expect is to lose a stretch of cable at the same time - a stretch of cable that supplies a smelter and 4 or 5 very large mines.
At the same time the councils load shed, this cable "breaks" - resulting in a further 3-4000MW being "loadshed". The system now has 9000MW MORE than it had 5 mins before.
Result - potential disaster, especially considering the people who control the power flows expected a rise - and may be momentarily "relaxed".

[bodhi]

Rapport maak my :sick:

Wens daar was beter Sondagkoerante in Afrikaans beskikbaar :o

[Robin Hood]

Die Sunday Times is nogal heel ok, hoor...Het dit eintlik vandag vir die eerste keer beloer..

[The Cosmos]

Ek is al so :sick: vir al hierdie slegte nuus. :mad::eek:

lyk my Suid-Afrika is die slegte nuus land. :rolleyes:

[Moederloos]

Ek is al so :sick: vir al hierdie slegte nuus. :mad::eek:

lyk my Suid-Afrika is die slegte nuus land. :rolleyes:

Iraqis sit together and say "Well, at least we don't live in South Africa"

[Robin Hood]

Ek is al so :sick: vir al hierdie slegte nuus. :mad::eek:

lyk my Suid-Afrika is die slegte nuus land. :rolleyes:

Soos ek n ruk terug vir Moederloos gese het...die ouens maak maar "jokes" oor die land, want dis al wat n mens maar nog kan doen om n "smile" te kan ontwikkel...Om n ding ongelukkig prontuit te stel..Die land is in sy MO^R in...letterlik EN figuurlik

[The Cosmos]

Om n ding ongelukkig prontuit te stel..Die land is in sy MO^R in...letterlik EN figuurlik

Dis 'n voldwonge feit. :eek::sick:

[Robin Hood]

Weet jy waarna dink ek mos so n ruk terug?...Ons almal praat van Mbeki...maar weet jy wat? Dit val my mos by, HY was nie in beheer daai tyd met die wapen knoeiery nie, dit was mandela wat in beheer was...So Mandela MOES die versoek van Eskom gesien het

[Robin Hood]

Sorry, ek weet nou nie of jy al hierdie thread gelees het nie http://www.mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthread.php?t=102740

[HavocXphere]

I'm not very knowledgeable about this but:


You assume by calling BS that the system is infailable
No, I know that the system can fail. So can the world economy (1929), internet (13 DNS Servers), world peace (Sarajevo) etc. All are susceptible to cascading failure and have all come very close to complete collapse in the past. It can happen, but the risk will always be there, with or without favorable circumstances. Without the safety margin, the risk increase as you guys pointed out.

My point is, that at some point the risk of collapse is large enough to justify dramatic actions similar to the ones I proposed. If the 6 operators decide, it is getting the risk of collapse is too high, they can loadshed Jhb the one day Pta the next preemptively to gain a safety margin.

If they just let it run with zero safety margin, *then* it will result in a cascading failure.

My BS call was not based on the assumption that it cannot fail (I run windows too btw). It was based on the assumption that the guys in the control room have enough common sense to rather do massive preemptive blackouts (Like they are doing atm) than just to pray & hope that it does not cascade.

As to unexpected fluctuations with demand/supply:
They were quite capable of handling it when supply and demand was not so tight. There is no reason why they should not be able to do so now with the same means *after* they have created a forced safety margin via rolling blackouts.


Rapport maak my
English (http://www.pretorianews.co.za/?fSectionId=&fArticleId=vn20080127093249734C412359)

[Moederloos]

HavocXphere: perhaps that is true now.
I do however have the suspicion that we came dangerously close last week.
Hence the panic mode call to shut off the mines.

How close we were - who will ever know?

[HavocXphere]

HavocXphere: perhaps that is true now.
The sad thing is, we can have an armchair debate about this now but soon we will *know*.:(


Hence the panic mode call to shut off the mines.
I kinda missed that.:o

[Ozymandias]

Eskom has 26 power stations with about five generating units each. The number of generating units down for maintenance account for 3658MW and those down for “other reasons” account for about 5000MW.

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=692575

[Robin Hood]

http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=692575

There was so many bulls^it spoken in the past, i dont even know if i can believe what they say now...