What would happen to SA if the power went out for two weeks?

[oober]

I was just wondering what would happen to South Africa if the power went out for two weeks or more?

What would happen to things like:

Water Supply
Petrol/Diesel Supply
Food Supplies

etc.

What are your thoughts on this rather "sensitive" matter?

[timgaul]

No water, no petrol, no fresh food.

Welcome to the world of Zim! Baked beans for the masses!

[Freshy-ZN]

We are in very real danger of finding out.

[oober]

We are in very real danger of finding out.

Thats what I'm afraid of. This power crisis is going to spark mass panic sometime. People are going to start buying up all the food/water petrol etc.
Not good at all.

[Syndyre]

There'd be anarchy, no services, looting etc. Not something I want to experience.

[Nanfeishen]

Civil War, but then maybe thats what certain parties want :eek:

[Dange--Russ]

I reckon I would have to drink my whiskey without ice which totally unacceptable.

[JBFRobisher]

No electricity for that length of time = no water either.

[dablakmark8]

firstly in our water supply we wil see maggots

[eltherza]

If there was no power for 2 weeks, there'd be a huge baby boom in 9 months time...

[dablakmark8]

If there was no power for 2 weeks, there'd be a huge baby boom in 9 months time...
battery powered barry white:D

[BobbyMac]

Civil War
How did you reach this conclusion?

[Dange--Russ]

firstly in our water supply we wil see maggots

Would be dark, we would not see the maggots, water would just be a bit more chewy than usual.

[Syndyre]

Would be dark, we would not see the maggots, water would just be a bit more chewy than usual.

Protein enriched. :D



:sick:

[vespax]

I don't think there is a real possibility that power would be down for that long. This is not that show Jericho (which I am really enjoying on SABC 3 on Wednesday nights).

A day at the most, but not two weeks. Regardless, I think I am going to buy some bottled water (from macro in big containers) just to have on hand for a while in case things go bad. Already have some food stashed away...

[oober]

Anything positive that would happen? :D:D
And how long would it take to recover from such an extended power outage?

[dablakmark8]

Protein enriched. :D



:sick:
:D:D:D:D:D:sick:

[Nanfeishen]

How did you reach this conclusion?

No power =
No shops open, no produce available, no banks online, no money available, cash would have to been drawn ahead of time, (if announced), a run on the banks, especially in the poorer areas, which the banks couldnt handle, looting would be prevelant, roads jammed due to no power for traffic lights, petrol stations would run dry, (only those who have generators would work anyway)cell phones would be inoperable by the 5th day, communications would be down, water supply would stop, and waste would build up, due to sewerage sytems shuting down.
Civil order would collapse by the 8th day, maybe the 10th, the police are horrible under staffed, how would they respond to emergencies with no communications, or when they themselves run out of petrol?

Bleak, maybe, but if one expects the worse, then anything less is a plus :D

[oober]

No power =
No shops open, no produce available, no banks online, no money available, cash would have to been drawn ahead of time, (if announced), a run on the banks, especially in the poorer areas, which the banks couldnt handle, looting would be prevelant, roads jammed due to no power for traffic lights, petrol stations would run dry, (only those who have generators would work anyway)cell phones would be inoperable by the 5th day, communications would be down, water supply would stop, and waste would build up, due to sewerage sytems shuting down.
Civil order would collapse by the 8th day, maybe the 10th, the police are horrible under staffed, how would they respond to emergencies with no communications, or when they themselves run out of petrol?

Bleak, maybe, but if one expects the worse, then anything less is a plus :D

Wow it sounds like an episode from Jericho.

[BobbyMac]

No power =
No shops open, no produce available, no banks online, no money available, cash would have to been drawn ahead of time, (if announced), a run on the banks, especially in the poorer areas, which the banks couldnt handle, looting would be prevelant, roads jammed due to no power for traffic lights, petrol stations would run dry, (only those who have generators would work anyway)cell phones would be inoperable by the 5th day, communications would be down, water supply would stop, and waste would build up, due to sewerage sytems shuting down.
Civil order would collapse by the 8th day, maybe the 10th, the police are horrible under staffed, how would they respond to emergencies with no communications, or when they themselves run out of petrol?

Bleak, maybe, but if one expects the worse, then anything less is a plus :DYou're describing anarchy - not civil war ;) Anyway, chances are slim all of what you said will result, as most of the country lived without electricity for more than 30 years anyway. In fact, most of the people in this country mostly use electricity for their lighting only, they still cook with paraffin. Perhaps you should take a walk through your local informal settlement so that you can get a feeling of how things will probably remain.

As for industry: most of the large companies have backup power. In fact, virtually every bank is scrambling to ensure every branch has backup power.

[icyrus]

You're describing anarchy - not civil war ;)

Quite right.

I expect 2 weeks without power would most probably lead down that road. The police force can't currently handle the situation and there is no army to call in to help.

[icyrus]

You're describing anarchy - not civil war ;) Anyway, chances are slim all of what you said will result, as most of the country lived without electricity for more than 30 years anyway. In fact, most of the people in this country mostly use electricity for their lighting only, they still cook with paraffin. Perhaps you should take a walk through your local informal settlement so that you can get a feeling of how things will probably remain.

As for industry: most of the large companies have backup power. In fact, virtually every bank is scrambling to ensure every branch has backup power.

Sure they may be used to no residential power and a lot of companies have backup power but how many of them will be able to keep the lights on for 2 weeks without any power from the grid?

And if the power outage affects water and fuel supplies?

It would be highly optimistic to think 2 weeks without power at all in a city like JHB will result in anything but anarchy.

[Moederloos]

How did you reach this conclusion?

It is not diifficult to reach this conclusion - although I doubt it would happen.

[BobbyMac]

Sure they may be used to no residential power and a lot of companies have backup power but how many of them will be able to keep the lights on for 2 weeks without any power from the grid?

And if the power outage affects water and fuel supplies?

It would be highly optimistic to think 2 weeks without power at all in a city like JHB will result in anything but anarchy.Anarchy perhaps, certainly not a civil war.

[Moederloos]

Wars are the result of one small "click" at the end of a long line of problems.
World War One was sparked by the assassination of one man. Pretty disproportional as an isolated incident. Not so disproportional when taken as one in a series of events.

I am certainly not a political commentator - but had I been one, I could very easily (I am sure) construct a plausible series of events that could take SA from where it is now, to a civil war, with the "click" event being a collapse of the national power grid.

Although, I myself do not think it would happen (the war, not the power grid collapse). Anarchy is a more likely outcome - and it would take some time to quell.

[CathJ]

Wow it sounds like an episode from Jericho.

Actually, I think Jericho's doing pretty well for a town with no power, no water, and no sewerage.

[icyrus]

Anarchy perhaps, certainly not a civil war.

Yeah, thats what I meant.

[Robin Hood]

Easy for them to say...Am i going to get this for free? :mad:

[Moederloos]

Actually, I think Jericho's doing pretty well for a town with no power, no water, and no sewerage.

That's because they have a lot of skilled people.

[Robin Hood]

Wonder what would have happened if we didnt bother with the USA's sanctions back in the 90's and carried on our own way...Dont you think we could have been better off??..I mean, we had all the technology, infrastructure, knowlege, people, etc etc

[Moederloos]

I think we should have stuck to the plan of a two-party type joint government.
For 20 years.
I do not think we should have (or could have) continued with Apartheid.
I would rather be wrong on the moral highground, than be wrong on the side of oppression.
For better or worse.

[jsxza]

No electricity = fuel pumps not working
Fuel pumps not working = disrupted supply chain
disrupted sullpy chain = no goods(food+essentials) in stores
no accesable goods = hungry and angry people

aggro hungry people do what they have to in order to survive.

the streets will probably be lined with corpses and foreign governments will make an effort to extract their citizens.

[Robin Hood]

I think we should have stuck to the plan of a two-party type joint government.
For 20 years.
I do not think we should have (or could have) continued with Apartheid.
I would rather be wrong on the moral highground, than be wrong on the side of oppression.
For better or worse.

Throwing Apartheid out, not a prob by me, but we could have done our own thing...with the "then current" people in that specific possitions...

[Robin Hood]

Anyhow...its a waste of breath...No use I talk about "if"...thats past tense..The main prob now is HOW to get out of THIS probs :sick:

[Moederloos]

We may well find out.
http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showpost.php?p=1475874&postcount=9

The logic of closing the COAL mines is dumbfounding.

[schitz011]

That's because they have a lot of skilled people.

Mostly I think Jericho did ok because they were a small, compact group of people who know each other living in an isolated community.

If the juice were to go out the cities would go downhill so fast it's not even funny, but blikkielikkliefontein would do OK due to a laager mentality (though not in this case shooting blacks type laager (though I would imagine it would happen), but a pull together and keep each other safe), but that cannot be done in a city.

Besides, how many of you really know your neighbours? Do you think if there was a nationwide black out and you sat there with your jenny happily put putting away that someone in the vicinity wouldn't decide that it it would be better put to use lighting his home?

Same goes for food, petrol, water...

There are plenty enough people out there with legal guns, let alone illegal ones. If people now are prepared to kill you over a cellphone, imagine what they will do for something as precious as power or fresh water..

As for the civil war comment. Maybe not an out and out civil war, but certainly major major clashes along race lines.. which is essentially what you mean by civil war here anyway..

Yeah a lot of people in the townships have no power, but we are not talking about going out for dinner when the lights are out, we are talking no delivery of food, no communications system, no petrol (you can take it as read the first thing people will do is hit the still functioning stations hard)..

[Moederloos]

schitz011 : yeah.

Consider how much food a city needs in a day.
The fact that cities even work at all under normal circumstances are astounding.
We, as a household, consumer probably 2-3kgs of food a day - solid food. That excludes water etc.
There are 400 odd houses within a 500m radius of us.
That is roughly one ton of food per day, for a 500m radius "circle". I am not going to show the world my glaring hort comings, geometry-wise - maybe someone can calculate further.

A TON of food per day is a LOT. What does a "city" like Sandton consume? 1000's of tons probably.

An outage of even 3 days will set "it" off.

What is that saying? The difference between civilization and anarchy is 3 meals?


A quote I pulled up from the 'net:

Admist the London bombings, a report was leaked from Mi-5 that said, in effect, lawfulness is obsolete after 3 missed meals.

[Robin Hood]

Er ehm...Guys...This "Jericho" you are talking about...is it "fact" or "fiction"? I know its on TV though...

[schitz011]

It's a mini-series..

It R fiction.. Though when we watched 'The Day After' at school some girl piped up 'did this really happen?'

Yeah the holocaust came and went but we decided not to tell you :D

[DJ...]

Our economy would collapse. Foreign investment would pull out completely and the equity markets would fall to unsustainably low levels. It would be the end for South Africa economically. I have read a research paper by a major bank about this (and no I am not allowed to post it here, sorry)

[kingmonty]

In times of peril people generally consume less. Oddly, when people are most stressed they eat more *bad* food. So I think everyone stockpiling "baked beans" will probably not dig into it soon anyway, whether there's a need to or not.

[kingmonty]

Our economy would collapse. Foreign investment would pull out completely and the equity markets would fall to unsustainably low levels. It would be the end for South Africa economically. I have read a research paper by a major bank about this (and no I am not allowed to post it here, sorry)

Strangely one would think this is a quick kill situation, but in reality this process takes many years. Look how long Zim has taken to self destruct. It's not quite done it yet, but it's damn close. Large companies also take similarly long to achieve utter destruction.

[Syndyre]

Strangely one would think this is a quick kill situation, but in reality this process takes many years. Look how long Zim has taken to self destruct. It's not quite done it yet, but it's damn close. Large companies also take similarly long to achieve utter destruction.

That's what I thought too but its gotten very bad very quickly in the last week or so.

[kingmonty]

That's what I thought too but its gotten very bad very quickly in the last week or so.
For us it would because we're bearing the brunt of the change from good to bad. The majority however will not feel it as hard as us as they live in the worst of it most of the time. The stats are staggering:
The majority of South Africans don't have running water directly in their homes, physical electric connections in their homes, or a telephone connection within 2 kilometers of their homes. The one area where these people are hit the hardest now is that many of them face losing their jobs, but in a country where a quarter of the employable work force is unemployed, it doesn't really impact them as much. The problem is while we are experiencing a swing from good to bad (or bad to worse for some), the poor don't feel it as hard - yet. if it continues and job losses enter the fray, then the ship will spring more leaks and take on more water, but for the next few weeks and even months, the effects on the economy and soforth will happen in burst (often perhaps even steep bursts), but only over time will the ship sink.

The fact is that if the country somehow recovers (and I fear it would be at our (i.e. the general paying consumer) expense), the voters will likely not have garnered anything apart from the general spin that this is somehow Apartheid's fault (speeches like "we're a victim of our own success" plays on these emotions) and continue putting a bunch of uneducated corrupt ****ers back in power. Sad really.

[Syndyre]

For us it would because we're bearing the brunt of the change from good to bad. The majority however will not feel it as hard as us as they live in the worst of it most of the time. The stats are staggering:
The majority of South Africans don't have running water directly in their homes, physical electric connections in their homes, or a telephone connection within 2 kilometers of their homes. The one area where these people are hit the hardest now is that many of them face losing their jobs, but in a country where a quarter of the employable work force is unemployed, it doesn't really impact them as much. The problem is while we are experiencing a swing from good to bad (or bad to worse for some), the poor don't feel it as hard - yet. if it continues and job losses enter the fray, then the ship will spring more leaks and take on more water, but for the next few weeks and even months, the effects on the economy and soforth will happen in burst (often perhaps even steep bursts), but only over time will the ship sink.

Yeah, but everyone sees things from their own perspective. What you're basically saying is that the first world side of SA is slowly slipping down to the level of the third world side, not a good thing.

[kingmonty]

Yeah, but everyone sees things from their own perspective. What you're basically saying is that the first world side of SA is slowly slipping down to the level of the third world side, not a good thing.
That's exactly it. Infrastructure on the "first world" or generally developed side has been left alone to its own vices, resulting in a gradual (yet speeding up) process of degradation. Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, very little infrastructure has been built in the underdeveloped areas simply because the government feels the private sector should do it irrespective of the monopolistic structures it has in place. All this while the monopolistic structures tries to dictate both policy as well as price to both private and public sector. Either way, it was and is a recipe for disaster, and one this government time and time again refuses to learn.

[Syndyre]

That's exactly it. Infrastructure on the "first world" or generally developed side has been left alone to its own vices, resulting in a gradual (yet speeding up) process of degradation. Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, very little infrastructure has been built in the underdeveloped areas simply because the government feels the private sector should do it irrespective of the monopolistic structures it has in place. All this while the monopolistic structures tries to dictate both policy as well as price to both private and public sector. Either way, it was and is a recipe for disaster, and one this government time and time again refuses to learn.

The real problem is this government's disdain for capitalism and private enterprise, a lot of them studied in the Soviet Union and it clearly shows.

[kingmonty]

The real problem is this government's disdain for capitalism and private enterprise, a lot of them studied in the Soviet Union and it clearly shows.Yeah, and now we're getting an uneducated pratt with a far left support base. Fun. :(

[Syndyre]

Yeah, and now we're getting an uneducated pratt with a far left support base. Fun. :(

Yeah, its only going to get worse. Almost lost my mind watching the ANC conference voting and hearing "comrades" constantly. :mad:

[kingmonty]

LOL. And with the Chinese influence only a deep fried rice kernel away ;)

[DJ...]

Yeah, its only going to get worse. Almost lost my mind watching the ANC conference voting and hearing "comrades" constantly. :mad:

That freaked me out - it was almost ironically prophetic for our country.

[Syndyre]

That freaked me out - it was almost ironically prophetic for our country.

It was a scary sight. Isn't Erwin still in the SACP? He was at one stage I know, a lot of the cabinet is/was. To still be in the communist party now you really have to be lacking a brain.

Was just trying to check something and it turns out they still have a Politburo (http://www.sacp.org.za/main.php?include=about/leadership.html). :eek:

[Moederloos]

In times of peril people generally consume less. Oddly, when people are most stressed they eat more *bad* food. So I think everyone stockpiling "baked beans" will probably not dig into it soon anyway, whether there's a need to or not.

Yeah - that is true.
But 1000's of tons then become many hundreds of tons.
Makes no real difference to a starving man who has nothing, if he is short 10kgs of food or 1kg.


Strangely one would think this is a quick kill situation, but in reality this process takes many years. Look how long Zim has taken to self destruct. It's not quite done it yet, but it's damn close. Large companies also take similarly long to achieve utter destruction.

Yeah - but as you later discussed (I do not want to quote everything as it becomes a huge post then), the 1st world side is collapsing - and once it does, the 3rd world side is like a bug caught in a pitcher plant* - on a long, slow, unstoppable slide into a pit.




* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitcher_plant

[[S.A.S]4DELTA]

i dont like a goverment that makes 10 000 promises and cant deliver on 342 of them.....its sad to see a country with so much potential going to waste.i am beginning to feel like dange--russ........i hate everything....:sick: :sick: :sick: :mad: :sick: :sick: :sick:

[Moederloos]

4DELTA;1477033']i dont like a goverment that makes 10 000 promises and cant deliver on 342 of them.....its sad to see a country with so much potential going to waste.i am beginning to feel like dange--russ........i hate everything....:sick: :sick: :sick: :mad: :sick: :sick: :sick:

Potential is a factor of opportunity and desire.
Therefore, we have no potential.

[Robin Hood]

Yeah, its only going to get worse. Almost lost my mind watching the ANC conference voting and hearing "comrades" constantly. :mad:

I think the word Comrades actually is a Russian saying...No wonder they were talking about the ANC as Communists...In a Communist country, the Govt owns everything...houses, etc...as is already happening here...

[[S.A.S]4DELTA]

Potential is a factor of opportunity and desire.
Therefore, we have no potential.

something that makes you go mmmmmmm........???? word :D

[[S.A.S]4DELTA]

mandela didn't go to Russia in 1989(or some year close to) for no reason......:confused:

[Robin Hood]

If i have to answer to the "heading" of this subject?? DISASTER!!!

[Robin Hood]

....all i can say...we were "forced" into a f-up Govt :(

[[S.A.S]4DELTA]

i totally agree.......need we say more....:sick:

[CathJ]

Mostly I think Jericho did ok because they were a small, compact group of people who know each other living in an isolated community.


While you have a point, I think Jericho did okay because it's a TV series :D

I typed a whole paragraph on how Jericho isn't very realistic, but then this isn't really the place to start discussing fictional problems - we have enough of our own.

[Robin Hood]

While you have a point, I think Jericho did okay because it's a TV series :D


:D

[AutoX]

I think a civil war will break out.

[Robin Hood]

I think a civil war will break out.

I was thinking the same thing this morning...No one in this country, black, white, indian, whatever is going to take this crap for long...Everything in life has an ending...even this sh*t too...Its like a Volcanic eruption.I think the main concern here is WHEN its going to happen :eek:

[abjater]

hopefully when the power gets restored .... the incompetence will be rooted out by then, The arrogance would have been replaced with logic.
Was it Brazil (some S.American country I recall) got a total political turn-around after this very same kind of "national emergency". AFAIK, they got the problem sorted out now. Enough power. For the masses.

[kingmonty]

While you have a point, I think Jericho did okay because it's a TV series :D

I typed a whole paragraph on how Jericho isn't very realistic, but then this isn't really the place to start discussing fictional problems - we have enough of our own.
Actually being a TV series almost didn't save them ;) The show was close to being canned, so "season 2" is simply a couple of episodes (7 or so) built to bring closure to the show.

[CathJ]

Actually being a TV series almost didn't save them ;) The show was close to being canned, so "season 2" is simply a couple of episodes (7 or so) built to bring closure to the show.

Hey, no spoilers! Some of us actually watch it on TV, so we're not up to season 2 yet.

[Jhbgirl]

Besides, how many of you really know your neighbours? Do you think if there was a nationwide black out and you sat there with your jenny happily put putting away that someone in the vicinity wouldn't decide that it it would be better put to use lighting his home?
..

We are on our second generator..that already happened to us..

[bekdik]

What would happen to SA if the power Never went out for two weeks?

[Paulr]

What would happen to SA if the power Never went out for two weeks?


People would sort of carry on as normal....

Hopefully, we never have to test the "If it happens" scenario for real....

[Moederloos]

What would happen to SA if the power Never went out for two weeks?

It would continue down the road of ruin.
A catalyst is needed to pull everyone's head from the sand.
They say nothing forges a new country like war and disaster.

I am so much on the fence (a 4 dimensional fence in my case).
On the one side, I do not want a disaster, because it is seriously perilous.
On the other hand, if we do have one, it may just save the country from itself.
On the 3rd hand (I did promise vivid 4D!!), a disaster now, and what happens in those two weeks, will push me to leave SA forever (ANC continues to deny problems and people support them), or allow me to stay (ANC gets lynched, and a new government of the minority parties takes over).