ANC has 4 times more online supporters than the DA !!

timgaul said:
Well the do have 6-to-7 times more supporters in general. So as a percentage, the DA has more online supporters. However, the COPE figure seems a bit strange.
Click to expand...
Maybe not?

We could all be assuming that the DA will still be the Official Opposition after the 22nd of April 2009.
I think the DA is more concerned about losing it's status as the Official Opposition to COPE and all the perks and benefits that go with that than worrying about the ANC itself.

All the political parties are feeding off the ANC's support base as they have the greatest number of possible votes to lose, however I doubt disgruntled ANC supporters are suddenly going to vote for the DA, but rather one of the other parties, probably COPE, that is if they even vote at all.
 
Simple Maths give those parties the following percentages:

ACDP 2.78%
ANC 54.50%
APC 0.02%
AZAPO 0.18%
COPE 23.04%
DA 15.33%
VF 2.13%
ID 0.07%
IFP 1.50%
MF 0.02%
NDC 0.05%
PAC 0.14%
UCDP 0.18%
UDM 0.04%
UIF 0.02%

In this calculation it seems the DA loses the Official Opposition to COPE by a fair margin and the ANC loses it's two thirds majority by a significant margin. Smaller parties like the ID and IFP losing quite a bit of their support base. ID noticeably.
Not sure if the DA has lost much in the way of numbers, but it is obvious the big gainer here is COPE with the ANC giving up a piece of their votes to make up the difference. So with over 50% the ANC will be in charge with Zuma at the helm for another 5 years.

The DA, COPE or both together with the ANC can amend the Constitution.

Check my calculations if you like. PM me with errors. Ta. :)
 
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Was just thinking - with the AN€'s alliance partners almost openly revolting against being left out of the "posts for pals" free-for-all after the election, what would the AN€'s % be if the SACP and Cosatu left them? 40-45%?

But of course that'll never happen - the SACP would only have about 4% support on their own, but inside the AN€ they have something like 20%... Cosatu even less than that...

One can dream, can't one?
 
Yes it is possible, why? Because ANC supporters will always vote, while some people who no longer support the ANC or people who support opposition parties will not bother to vote because "ANC will win anyway, so why bother to vote?". I think the ANC will win with 74% of the votes, and it is because people who are fed up with the ANC will not vote at all, and so that gives ANC more votes percent wise since opposition parties won't win more votes.
 
But in the Jesse Duarte clip that was posted here yesterday she contradicts the the original post here.....

It's all confusing me aaaargh!!!!! :D
 
That voting system is imperfect. I can vote for any party once from any browser on the same PC. I can also SMS my vote in. However, once I'm in, I can't change my vote. Works fine for a once off system, but not for a web site. What if I change my vote based on news, etc.?
 
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