Greek referendum threatens new euro zone crisis

Alan

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Prime Minister George Papandreou's shock announcement that he will put Greece's bailout to a referendum threatened to intensify the euro zone crisis, and brought complaints in Germany that Athens is trying to wriggle out of the deal.

Euro zone leaders agreed last week to hand Athens a second, 130 billion-euro bailout and a 50-percent write-down on its huge debt. The price of the package is a programme of harsh state spending cuts that have unleashed a tide of anger among Greeks.

Papandreou, whose ruling Socialist party has suffered several defections as it pushes waves of austerity measures through parliament while protesters rally outside, said he needed wider political backing for the fiscal measures and structural reforms demanded by international lenders.

A leader in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition said on Tuesday he was "irritated" by Papandreou's announcement.

"This sounds to me like someone is trying to wriggle out of what was agreed -- a strange thing to do," said Rainer Bruederle, parliamentary floor leader for the Free Democrats.

"One can only do one thing: make the preparations for the eventuality that there is a state insolvency in Greece and if it doesn't fulfil the agreements, then the point will have been reached where the money is turned off."

Analysts said the latest opinion poll showed a majority of Greeks took a negative view of the bailout deal.

The renewed uncertainty will be likely be an embarrasment for G20 leaders in France this week trying to coax China into throwing the euro zone a financial lifeline.

"If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude that they may not accept the austerity measures. We may conclude that it will bring the pack of cards tumbling down," Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC Partners in London, said.

Early reactions to the surprise move ranged from accusations that Papandreou was gambling with the country's future and predictions of default, to questions over the legality of the referendum and statements by lawmakers that a "No" vote would force his resignation and early elections.

Nobel prize-winning economist Christopher Pissarides caught the mood of uncertainty: "It is difficult to predict what will happen to Greece if they reject it. It will be bad enough for the European Union and the euro zone in particular, but it will be far worse for Greece.

"In the scenario of a 'No' vote Greece would declare bankruptcy immediately, they would default immediately. I can't see them staying within the euro," he said.

REFERENDUM ON MEMBERSHIP

"The situation is so tight that basically it would be a vote over their euro membership," Finland's Europe Minister Alexander Stubb told broadcaster MTV3.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos also warned citizens that euro zone membership was at stake. "It's crunch time," he told lawmakers on Monday.

"Citizens will have to answer the question: are we for Europe, the eurozone and the euro?"

Early on Tuesday, Venizelos checked into an Athens hospital with stomach pains but was expected to be discharged later.

Analysts were divided over whether Greek voters would accept the deal, but agreed that a damaging month or two of market volatility lay ahead while pollsters repeatedly took the Greek voters' pulse and European leaders looked on nervously.

The immediate market reaction to the announcement was negative, the euro extending losses against the dollar and tumbling more than 2 percent to a session low.

European shares were seen opening lower on Tuesday.

Opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and push for snap elections, party officials said.

"Mr. Papandreou is dangerous, he tosses Greece's EU membership like a coin in the air," party spokesman Yannis Michelakis said. "He cannot govern and instead of withdrawing honorably, he dynamites everything."

UP TO THE VOTERS

Papandreou told the Greek voters it was up to them to decide the country's fate.

"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their decision," he told Socialist party deputies. "In a few weeks the (EU) agreement will be a new loan contract... we must spell out if we are accepting it or if we are rejecting it."

Papandreou, grappling with Greece's worst financial crisis in 40 years, said the referendum would take place in a few weeks. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Greek TV it would probably be held early next year.

Opposition parties accused Papandreou of looking for a way out for his embattled party by dragging Greece, which has seen violent clashes between anti-austerity protesters and riot police, through a lengthy period of political instability.

"I never expected Papandreou to take such a dangerous and frivolous decision," said Dora Bakoyanni, former foreign minister and leader of the small centre-right Democratic Alliance party. "All the international media will say that Greece itself is putting the EU deal at risk."

Greek newspapers on Tuesday also harshly criticised Papandreou for his choice. "More uncertainty is the last thing that Greece needs right now," said conservative newspaper Kathimerini in its lead editorial.

"The country will certainly paralyse amid endless debates -- the government, the state apparatus and institutions won't work," the newspaper added.

Papandreou also said he would ask for a vote of confidence to secure support for his policy for the rest of his four-year term, which expires in 2013.

Analysts said he was likely to win that, despite dissent among his parliamentary team, and parliament officials said the confidence debate would begin on Wednesday, with a vote on Thursday or Friday.

MONEY RUNNING OUT?

Greece is due to receive an 8 billion-euro tranche in mid-November, but that is likely to run out during January, around the time of the referendum, leaving the government with no funds if there is a "no" vote.

Germany issued a statement saying the EU was working hard to put the second Greek aid package in place by the end of the year and had no comment on the referendum.

Swinging opinion polls would leave markets fluctuating and Greece's EU partners dangling.

A survey carried out on Saturday showed that nearly 60 percent of Greeks viewed the agreement on the bailout package as negative or probably negative.

But David Lea of Control Risks struck a more positive note. "It's all in the question. If he can frame it as a sufficiently apple-pie issue, he stands some chance of winning," he said.

Some parliamentarians questioned the legality of the planned plebiscite under the constitution, which does not allow referendums on economic issues, only on matters of great national importance.

The last time Greeks held a referendum was in December 1974, when they voted to abolish the monarchy shortly after the collapse of a military dictatorship.

To be binding, a referendum result requires a minimum 40 percent turnout on issues of "crucial national importance" and 50 percent on a law that has already been voted on in parliament and "regulates a serious social issue", according to legislation enacted this year. It was not clear which option the government would favour.

"If the referendum answer is no, Papandreou has to resign," said Costas Panagopoulos, an analyst at polling firm Alco.

"In the meantime what will happen with the decisions the EU took last week? I cannot understand what the prime minister wants to do."

So when will people wake up and hold the E.U politicians in Brussels responsible for this crises?

Seems it's okay for a European politician to bankrupt his state through greed but not a wall street banker :o
 
Following this very closely...

Greek move hits stocks, stirs German anger

Prime Minister George Papandreou’s shock decision to call a referendum on Greece’s bailout drew veiled threats from Germany on Tuesday and hammered markets edgy over the eurozone crisis.

European politicians complained that Athens was trying to wriggle out of the rescue deal agreed only last week, concerned not so much about the fate of Greece as the possibly dire consequences for the entire currency union.

One senior German parliamentarian suggested the eurozone might have to cast Athens adrift, cutting off its aid lifeline and allowing the nation to default.

Others were stunned by Papandreou’s apparent bolt from the blue on Monday on the plan for a €130bn bailout and a 50% write-down on Greece’s huge debt, which has unleashed fury among Greeks due to its price - yet more austerity.

But they also urged caution as the exact question to be put to the Greek people remains unknown. European Union officials said they have yet to be officially notified of the vote.

The reaction from Germany, which funds a large part of EU rescues for Greece as it struggles with a huge debt, was of scarcely disguised fury.

A leader in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right coalition said he was “irritated” by Papandreou’s announcement and said the eurozone would have to consider turning off the flow of money which has kept Greece afloat over the past year.

“This sounds to me like someone is trying to wriggle out of what was agreed - a strange thing to do,” said Rainer Bruederle, parliamentary floor leader for the Free Democrats and a former German economy minister.

“One can only do one thing: make the preparations for the eventuality that there is a state insolvency in Greece and if it doesn’t fulfil the agreements, then the point will have been reached where the money is turned off.”

Investors scurry

Financial markets, which had drawn encouragement from the eurozone deal on a new bailout for Greece, took Papandreou’s bombshell badly. Players scurried for safer investments, hammering stocks and punishing the euro.

“The risk is that a ’no’ from the Greeks will completely derail the rescue efforts,” a Paris-based share trader said. “We can kiss the year-end rally goodbye.”

South African blue chip stocks fell more than 2% as resource firms such as Lonmin and other miners were battered in a global rout on commodity stocks.

The Top 40 (Tradeable) - [JSE:J200] index was down 2.1% at 28 410.97.

Investors dumped metal stocks in a scramble for cash in fear that Greece could default on its debt.

European stocks were down close to 3% and MSCI’s all-country world stock index shed 1.7%, due not only to the possibility of a disorderly Greek default but also because of chaos surrounding the eurozone’s attempts to stop the debt crisis spreading to more significant economies such as Italy.

On foreign exchange markets, the euro fell more than 1% versus the dollar and yen as investors cut exposure to the common currency.

“The Greek referendum is a real curve ball. Nobody saw it coming and it injects a lot of uncertainty,” said Steven Saywell, head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas.

Germans on the streets of Berlin expressed exasperation with the entire euro project.

“All I understand is that the Greeks keep causing us problems. We’d be better off without the euro,” said Bert Kuehn as he delivered rolls to a bakery.

Some politicians urged caution as so much remains uncertain in the fluid world of Greek politics.

“If Greece votes ’no’ that will mean a political crisis,” said Spanish Secretary of State for the European Union Diego Lopez Garrido.

“For the moment we must be prudent and wait to see what Papandreou says before the full parliamentary session to explain the exact reach of his proposal,” he told Cadena Ser Radio.

Papandreou, whose ruling Socialist party has suffered several defections as it pushes waves of austerity measures through parliament while protesters rally outside, said he needed wider political backing for the fiscal measures and structural reforms demanded by international lenders.

Analysts said the latest opinion poll showed a majority of Greeks took a negative view of the bailout deal.

The renewed uncertainty is likely to be an embarrassment for G20 leaders meeting in France this week trying to coax China into throwing the eurozone a financial lifeline.

“If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude that they may not accept the austerity measures. We may conclude that it will bring the pack of cards tumbling down,” said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC Partners in London.

Nobel prize-winning economist Christopher Pissarides caught the mood of uncertainty: “It is difficult to predict what will happen to Greece if they reject it. It will be bad enough for the European Union and the eurozone in particular, but it will be far worse for Greece.

“In the scenario of a ’no’ vote Greece would declare bankruptcy immediately, they would default immediately. I can’t see them staying within the euro,” he said.

Referendum on membership

“The situation is so tight that basically it would be a vote over their euro membership,” Finland’s Europe Minister Alexander Stubb told broadcaster MTV3.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos also warned citizens that eurozone membership was at stake.

“It’s crunch time,” he told lawmakers on Monday. “Citizens will have to answer the question: are we for Europe, the eurozone and the euro?“

Early on Tuesday, Venizelos checked into an Athens hospital with stomach pains but was expected to be discharged later.

Analysts were divided over whether Greek voters would accept the deal, but agreed that a damaging month or two of market volatility lay ahead while European leaders looked on nervously.

Opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and push for snap elections, party officials said.

“Mr Papandreou is dangerous; he tosses Greece’s EU membership like a coin in the air,” party spokesperson Yannis Michelakis said.

“He cannot govern and instead of withdrawing honourably, he dynamites everything.”
Greek move hits stocks, stirs German anger

I don't know if Papandreou will be able to call a referendum. Either I can see a default coming some time or other. The current bailout amount is just a teeny tiny little drop in the water.

Germany and France will need to throw money at this situation for a very long time and I cannot see them being able to do this.
 
I hope for Europe's sake they disband the EU.
 
Oh right.. so you want to profit while an entire Economic union collapses...

Which will send the world into a very very dangerous economic spiral, that will hurt ALOT of people...
 
Actually, this is a pretty smart move. He can turn this either way to his advantage.

If the referendum is an overwhelming yes, he can say that he has a clear mandate to continue with his current programs and no election is necessary.

If the referendum is a clear no (not likely), then he can take the credit for calling the referendum and "listening to the people"
 
Actually, this is a pretty smart move. He can turn this either way to his advantage.

If the referendum is an overwhelming yes, he can say that he has a clear mandate to continue with his current programs and no election is necessary.

If the referendum is a clear no (not likely), then he can take the credit for calling the referendum and "listening to the people"

From a political perspective for him and his party, yes it can be turn to their advantage either way...

BUT from an economic perspective for Greece and for the EU as a whole, its a bloody dangerous move that could implode the EU in a big way.
 
And I still stand by the prophecy of Daniel 2:43 - "And whereas thou sawest iron mixed with miry clay, they shall mingle themselves with the seed of men: but they shall not cleave one to another, even as iron is not mixed with clay".

Folks, the prophecy of Daniel still stand, no matter what they will do, Europe will not be united.
 
Actually, this is a pretty smart move. He can turn this either way to his advantage.

If the referendum is an overwhelming yes, he can say that he has a clear mandate to continue with his current programs and no election is necessary.

If the referendum is a clear no (not likely), then he can take the credit for calling the referendum and "listening to the people"

Actually if the Greek PM does get to hold a referendum I suspect the answer will be an overwhelming NO for the bail out.
 
Oh right.. so you want to profit while an entire Economic union collapses...

Which will send the world into a very very dangerous economic spiral, that will hurt ALOT of people...

Yap, the world is a scary place isn't it? Go read a book by John Perkins called "Economic Hit man".

:) It's pointless trying to be a hero in this world; We are in too deep like Nia Long.

People profit from war, aids, cancer you name it. It's just how this world is. So I hope the Euro collapses completely so I can make my money and buy some land in Singapore. :)
 
BUT from an economic perspective for Greece and for the EU as a whole, its a bloody dangerous move that could implode the EU in a big way.

Meh, the Greek economy is not a major economy. I doubt it would affect the entire Euro Zone much and I think the Euro could recover from it.

Their GDP is actually only slightly larger than ours.
It's only a tenth of what Germany's is.
Our GDP is only a tenth of what France's is.
 
Yap, the world is a scary place isn't it? Go read a book by John Perkins called "Economic Hit man".

:) It's pointless trying to be a hero in this world; We are in too deep like Nia Long.

People profit from war, aids, cancer you name it. It's just how this world is. So I hope the Euro collapses completely so I can make my money and buy some land in Singapore. :)

I never said it wasn't a scary place... or to try and be a hero....

I am just saying that you are deluded if you think the world will not have a massive issue if the Euro collapses.
 
I never said it wasn't a scary place... or to try and be a hero....

I am just saying that you are deluded if you think the world will not have a massive issue if the Euro collapses.

I know it will be a mess if the Euro collapses, nothing I can really do about it but right now the way I have things set-up, If the Euro collapses, I will profit. Many and I mean many people are on the same boat.

I know people will starve, might even lead to some civil wars here and there but that is planet earth, the best we can do is take advantage of every and ANY situation and make profit.
 
As said above there will be a default at some point in the future any way, he was screwed any way,even facing pressure from his own party, now Papandreou can put some blame on the public.
 
@ VioAdmin- You mean you dont want a nice productive farm right here in sunny Mzanzi?

In like 5 years I probably will but not right now. Too much corruption and SA still needs to focus on it's infrastructure, once they make the upgrades I will be the first guy to try to own some land, even if that includes buying some farm land. :)

Singapore is too beautiful to pass-by man, same with Hong Kong...Now is the time to invest in those countries before 'you-know-who'. :)
 
Actually, this is a pretty smart move. He can turn this either way to his advantage.

If the referendum is an overwhelming yes, he can say that he has a clear mandate to continue with his current programs and no election is necessary.

If the referendum is a clear no (not likely), then he can take the credit for calling the referendum and "listening to the people"

Reminds me of one we had here in the early 90's.
 
It's not the referendum that threatens to bring down the house of cards. It's the unsustainable debt. Greece. Italy. Spain. Ireland. United Kingdom. France. Referendum or no, it will all come tumbling down, inexorably. The only variable is what exactly will preciptate it. Not that Greece is so big. But it takes just a smallish lump of snow to start the avalanche. Gravity works no matter what you do.
 
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