Hypothetical question : What will happen when fossil fuels run out?

The_Unbeliever

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As asked by Jannie van Zyl in one of his posts to a reply of mine.

What do you guys think will happen should fossil fuels run out?

Included in this category is coal, petrol, diesel, oil, in short, any kind of fossil fuel used to power cars, power stations etc.

Scary thought.
 
Sounds like my wife... just 2 minutes ago she was on at me to start digging up the yard to make a veggie garden so that we can become "self-sufficient".
 
1) We'll make them (iirc algae can make oil)
2) War for what little is left
3) ???
 
As asked by Jannie van Zyl in one of his posts to a reply of mine.

What do you guys think will happen should fossil fuels run out?

Included in this category is coal, petrol, diesel, oil, in short, any kind of fossil fuel used to power cars, power stations etc.

Scary thought.


Finally the old dinosaurs will die off and alternative energy will at last be put into action like hydrogen-powered vehicles.

Nuclear, natural gas, solar, wind and hydro-electricty will always be an option for power production.

It's something to look forward to. Sometimes progress is only ever made when slow-to-adopt dinosaurs realise it's NOW or never.

No need for fear-mongering or paranoia. Big businesses, corporations, enterprises and their shareholders have as much to lose as the rest of us.

A fossil-free future is already here, it's just a very slowly adopted technology.
 
With zero notice, society as we know it would collapse. Guaranteed. With 10 year notice we'd be fine....though it'd be a rough ride.

Electricity grids would be fine...you can build nuclear plants & renewables in 10 years time no problem if you've got a sufficient supply of no BS engineers and vast amounts of will-power on the gov side. i.e. No time for environmental stuff, BEE contracts and scientists tinkering with pebble bed tech.

The troubles come from the transport side. For that it absolutely has to be some form of combustion based fuel. Nothing else will do due to the energy per kilogram ratio needed. In practice that would probably mean something like Archer said...biofuel...mostly agriculture based not algae though (10 years isn't enough to scale algae sufficiently).

One thing I'm not sure what we'd do about is ship transport (Containers etc). Right now they're using the stuff that is left over after making diesel, petrol etc....super cheap, powerful and about as toxic as it gets. If we replace that with bio-diesel shipping prices would shoot skyhigh...and the world economy would not survive that.

1) We'll make them (iirc algae can make oil)
Yeah the tech does works & is one of the better solutions imo. In a crisis situation it would be plan C though imo. Requires massive initial investment, isn't all that great cost wise and doesn't scale as easily as say nuclear.

Sounds like my wife... just 2 minutes ago she was on at me to start digging up the yard to make a veggie garden so that we can become "self-sufficient".
Haha. Checkmate. Thats one of those arguments you can't win against regardless of what you say. Best bet is to divert the plan towards a herb garden.

If you must though...stick to stuff that the bugs & birds won't chow. Carrots, radish etc
 
Then we will be forced to split water H20 ... hydrogen which is being done on a small scale
cleaner and more sustainable ...no oil company involvement would be great but that will not happen they will still try to maintain their strangle hold on the energy field
There are many company's already producing electricity from water it may not be perfect yet but it is close ...
But there is still enough oil and gas for another few centuries ,,they have discovered more oil in the last few years than they ever thought was possible with new technology ,but fossil fuel is finite .
There are many sources of energy
manipulation of the fossil fuel price will eventually lead to the manipulators down fall ...this day i look forward to
MY 2 cents
 
None of the resources you've mention will run out in the next 50 or so years. Actually, as the technology improves, more and more will be discovered and the old ones better extracted and utilized. Further, the population growth in the 1st world countries has pretty much stabilized while the 3th world countries, which have the highest population growth, are too far behind technologically, regarding fossil fuel consumption. And finally, new scientific discoveries by the 1st world countries, make any projection meaningless. To predict what will happen in the next 25years, is mostly guess work. To predict the development in the next 50, is pure science-fiction. Instead of been worried about the fossil fuel running out tomorrow you should worry about the political situation in South Africa. By the time you wake up tomorrow, 10 people have been murdered! No guess work needed. The question is - when is your turn? Or even worse - my turn. Ok, the chance is roughly 1 in 5 million but the chance for your scenario to happen during this coming night is practically nil.
 
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Then we will be forced to split water H20 ... hydrogen which is being done on a small scale
You know why its only done on a small scale? Its because you need a boatload of energy to do it. Not ideal if you're trying to produce energy.
 
People who claim if we have 10 years notice should get their head out their ass (I promise, this isn't directed at anyone in particular)

Greed always overpowers common sense.

If we were to run out of all fossil fuel right at this instant, then panic would probably ensue and the reserves (if any) would be portion controlled like in the 70's when they had fuel shortages in SA

It will force the greedy to start producing whatever patents they bought up for clean energy and/or force us to advance much faster into green energy/living.

Society won't collapse. It'll just be inconvenienced. Boo-****ing-hoo.
 
We won't because by the time they get really scarce, their prices have increased to the point alternative energy is cheaper.
 
Society won't collapse. It'll just be inconvenienced. Boo-****ing-hoo.
Remember the chaos during the Eskom blackout? That was the result of maybe 1% shortfall on total energy needs (Most of the country had power & fossil fuels itself were entirely unaffected).

Without fossil fuels we've got pretty much only Koeberg and a negligible amount of renewables. If you crunch the numbers you'll see that is about 95% shortfall. i.e. Entire SA power grid is down for the count.

SA society is heavily urbanized and transport relies 100% on fossil fuels. Places like Gauteng aren't even close to self-sustaining when it comes to food & have at best a 4 weeks supply on location. Dunno about you but to me 5 million starving Gautengers on foot & bicycle looking for food is pretty close to society collapsing.

Also, no power no fresh water. People generally don't do well without water.

We won't because by the time they get really scarce, their prices have increased to the point alternative energy is cheaper.
Thank good for that.
 
Remember the chaos during the Eskom blackout? That was the result of maybe 1% shortfall on total energy needs (Most of the country had power & fossil fuels itself were entirely unaffected).

Without fossil fuels we've got pretty much only Koeberg and a negligible amount of renewables. If you crunch the numbers you'll see that is about 95% shortfall. i.e. Entire SA power grid is down for the count.

SA society is heavily urbanized and transport relies 100% on fossil fuels. Places like Gauteng aren't even close to self-sustaining when it comes to food & have at best a 4 weeks supply on location. Dunno about you but to me 5 million starving Gautengers on foot & bicycle looking for food is pretty close to society collapsing.

Also, no power no fresh water. People generally don't do well without water.


Thank good for that.

Survival of the fittest. I can't wait for all the idiots to peel over and die
 
I think that the most likely impact in our lifetimes will be an ongoing rise in energy prices. Fuel for vehicles and electricity from the grid is going to go up probably at a higher rate than inflation.

'The people' will protest, governments will try and force pricing controls but the eventual realities of supply and demand of scarce resources will hit home.

Alternative energy sources will start to look appealing and probably be used in electricity generation first. I suspect that it will take much longer for alternative energy on vehicles to really take off since nothing really has the bang per kg that our society has gotten used to from fossil fuels.
 
If fossil fuels ran out over night the world economy would crash within days and even if alternative forms of energy and transport were developed it would take decades to recover.

What could possibly happen is an explosion of telecommuting.
Why spend precious resources traveling to and from work just to sit behind a desk when you can do the same work from home?
Granted, that would not work for all industries but it would certainly work for most ICT companies, banks, etc.
 
Why spend precious resources traveling to and from work just to sit behind a desk when you can do the same work from home?
Granted, that would not work for all industries but it would certainly work for most ICT companies, banks, etc.

For us IT blokes having to support an userbase spread out all over town is a bit miff...
 
Here's a broadside from far out on the left field:

Some years back, whilst languishing at an airport in Darkest Africa, I met a Russian petroleum engineer on his way home from inspecting rigs in an African country. When out conversation moved to the OP question raised above, he laughed. He said that we in the West are basically swallowing the lie of Western oil companies that oil is running out and that it is not a renewable resource. He went on to say (to my astonished fascination) that the standard narrative in the Russian and Ukrainian (he was based in Ukraine) petroleum engineering is that what we call "petroleum" in the West is in fact a renewable resource. He said that Western academics and engineers have swallowed the lie that petroleum is from old dinosaurs and paleo plant material, but that it in fact was produced naturally in the ground and that it was totally renewable. Yes, he admitted that old fossils traces are found in petroleum, but this was a post-facto contamination caused when deep-crust abiogenic oil seeped up through old paleo layers.

So, it's quite possible that what we call petroleum might well be a renewable resource!

I don't have time now to search for post links, but here are a few:

Saturn's moon awash with hydrocarbons

Abiogenic hydrocarbon production

Deepest borehole was sunk by Russians, and found evidence of graphite and other hydrocarbons very many times deeper than any fossil fuels could possibly exist.

Confessions of an "ex" Peak-Oil Believer

Suitably-lefty Huffington Post article about abiogenic oil being pooh-poohed in the West but pretty standard in the world's largest oil-producing country (Russia).

Then there's this:
The essence of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins

The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is an extensive body of scientific knowledge which covers the subjects of the chemical genesis of the hydrocarbon molecules which comprise natural petroleum, the physical processes which occasion their terrestrial concentration, the dynamical processes of the movement of that material into geological reservoirs of petroleum, and the location and economic production of petroleum. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins recognizes that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been erupted into the crust of the Earth. In short, and bluntly, petroleum is not a "fossil fuel" and has no intrinsic connection with dead dinosaurs (or any other biological detritus) "in the sediments" (or anywhere else)...

The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of petroleum is based upon rigorous scientific reasoning, consistent with the laws of physics and chemistry, as well as upon extensive geological observation, and rests squarely in the mainstream of modern physics and chemistry, from which it draws its provenance. Much of the modern Russian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum genesis developed from the sciences of chemistry and thermodynamics, and accordingly the modern theory has steadfastly held as a central tenet that the generation of hydrocarbons must conform to the general laws of chemical thermodynamics, - as must likewise all matter. In such respect, modern Russian-Ukrainian petroleum science contrasts strongly to what are too often passed off as "theories" in the field of geology in Britain and the U.S.A.

In the pages containing articles connected with petroleum economics, there are several papers by Professor Michael C. Lynch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology which address directly the myth of "oil exhaustion." There is also a link to an article by Professor Peter Odell of the London School of Economics concerning the common misperceptions connected with petroleum economics.

One should understand that these papers cannot give justice to the immense literature of modern Russian petroleum science. During the half century between 1951-2001, there have been thousands of articles published in the mainstream Russian scientific journals on the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, and many books and monographs. For example, V. A. Krayushkin has published more than two hundred fifty articles on modern petroleum geology, and several books.

In light of the extensive literature of modern Russian petroleum science, questions inevitably arise among persons reading of it for the first time: Why has there been nothing published on this body of knowledge in the English-language (or American) journals which purportedly deal with matters involving petroleum ? Why have there never been Russian or Ukrainian petroleum scientists invited to address a meeting of, e.g., the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (A.A.P.G.) ? Why has there not been appointed to the faculty of a single department of Earth sciences, at any university in the U.S.A., a petroleum scientist competent to teach modern petroleum science ? In short, why have persons in the U.S.A. never heard of this body of knowledge ?

Such lack of reporting has not happened by accident. As the reader may surmise, this dysfunctional behavior has been a rather typical manifestation of the purveyors of quackery, desperately striving to preserve their self-image, conceits, and jobs. In short, there has been at work the Wizard of Oz chicanery, - before the little dog Toto snatched away the curtain. No reader should entertain an illusion that the publishing of these articles, in first-rank scientific journals such as Physical-Chemistry/Chemical-Physics, or the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, has been welcomed by the British/American petroleum geo-phrenology brotherhood.

The history of this behavior deserves itself the attention of competent social anthropologists and persons specializing in political science, and could be the subject of a host of illuminating essays..."
referenced in the same Huff link above.

Edit: Just to add, in an excellent doccie on Discovery called "Inside Planert Earth" (2009) some scientists from Free State Univ in Bloem were filmed researching bacteria in the rock at the bottom of the deepest gold mines. They and several other scientists averred that there is more bacterial biomass in the earth's crust than all living matter on the surface and oceans! Sounds astonishing, but when you remember we are talking entire crust several dozens of kilometres deep, this is not so improbable. There's a helluvua lot we still have to learn, it seems.
 
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<Conspiracy theory on> I think the energy companies will be forced to break out the array of alternatives to fossil fuel they are sitting on and keeping secret. With no more fossil fuel, they will be forced to re-tool and change their business plan at great cost, which they don't have to do now. Instead they justify high fuel prices and huge profits through riding the "it's almost finished" bus. </Conspiracy theory off> :p

Should it happen over night, I guess first would be panic > hysteria > world economy collapse > riots, chaos and mayhem > Mad Max :twisted:
 
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