Android Is Suddenly In A Lot Of Trouble - Business Insider Article

[)roi(]

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http://www.businessinsider.com/android-is-suddenly-in-a-lot-of-trouble-2012-4
The article summarises the major points of concern for Android;

Let's start with the number one news story of the year: Facebook buying Instagram for $1 billion. This is bad news for Android, because it shows that a developer can build a massively successfully product that the world goes crazy for without even using Android.

The next big trend that's bad for Android: It has been a complete and utter disaster in the tablet space.

There's only been one Android-based tablet that's been a success -- the Kindle Fire. This, too, is bad for Android.

The success of the Kindle Fire shows that you don't need Google's approval to create a great Android product. This is only going to lead to more companies doing the same making Android more fragmented and causing Google to lose control over its mobile operating system.

Another source we spoke with said that the only thing big handset makers want to talk about is Google's decision to buy Motorola. They're obsessed with it, and they're furious that Google is about to try to turn into Apple making its own hardware and its own software. This is going to alienate its biggest partners.

The good news for Google is that its partners don't really have much choice. They can't get access to iOS. And Microsoft is as deeply in bed with Nokia as Google is about to be with Motorola.

However, their anger is going to manifest itself in the form of Android forking. Handset makers are going to go from being partners with Google to rivals. Even if they fail, it's another level of fragmentation and competition for Android.

It's not just handset makers that are revolting. One of Google's key carrier partners just announced that it's going to do its best to undermine Android. Verizon CFO Fran Shammo says the company plans on putting its weight behind Windows Phones:

"We helped create the Android platform from the beginning and it is an incredible platform today, and we are looking to do the same thing with a third ecosystem."

It's not just Verizon that's going to push Windows Phones. AT&T is reportedly spending $150 million to market Windows Phones.

We're skeptical carriers can actually create consumer demand, but the fact that they're openly subverting Android is yet another bad sign for Google.

The latest release of Android's operating system has been all but ignored by consumers and by carriers.

According to data on Google's Android developer site only 2.9% of Android devices are running on "Ice Cream Sandwich," or Android 4.0. The vast majority of Android devices, 63.2%, are on Android 2.3, or Gingerbread. The next most popular flavor is Froyo, or Android 2.2, at 23.1%.

That means that 86.3% of Android users are using an outdated version of the software. They are significantly behind the times!

Either they just aren't buying the newest Android devices, or they can't get the newest software update. Either way, it's a disaster for Google, which puts a lot of effort into creating the best possible operating system with each new update.

Here's one more data point that shows Android is in trouble: This week Verizon revealed it sold 3.2 million iPhones in the first quarter. Its overall smartphone sales were 6.2 million, which means it sold more iPhones than all other smartphone types combined.

AT&T reports later, but there's no reason to believe it won't have a similar ratio. And Sprint doesn't reveal its ratio, but it would be strange if it was the only carrier that didn't follow a similar pattern.

In other words, on the three biggest carriers in the U.S., the iPhone is outselling Android. As we said, last year's story was the growth of Android. Apple's market share was dead in water.

This year, thanks to an expansion of carriers, the story is reversed. Now Android's market share appears to be dead in the water, and Apple is back on the rise.

Considering how the Oracle Java trial is proceeding, this should probably be added to the list of concerns.
 
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Jay Yarow is rather biased against Android, as he has shown numerous times. I wouldn't take anything he writes too seriously ;)

Apple Will Sell Millions Of iPads, Regardless Of Consumer Reports' Latest Claims
I Spent A Week With Android, And Hated It
Google Android Fanboy Speaks!
Without trying to discount off the bat anything said by a particular author you don't like; why don't you instead discount the facts if you believe them to be false.

As opposed to posting articles that you believe proves he is biased:
1st article btw appears factual, Apple has sold millions of iPads -- so what did you imply by quoting this.
2nd article refers to his mobile preference and the reason he personally didn't like Android; surely it's ok to like something else and to share the reasons for your choice?

For me these facts are not his, and are substantiated by the fact originators (Verizon, Amazon, AT&T, Google, ...) I.e. he is IMO quoting statements from the originators.
 
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[)roi(];8123726 said:
Without trying to discount off the bat anything said by a particular author you don't like; why don't you instead discount the facts if you believe them to be false.

For me these facts are not his, and are substantiated by the fact originators (Verizon, Amazon, AT&T, Google, ...)

I didn't say I don't like him. I just said that he appears to be biased. And obviously some of his points are valid, but some are obviously not.

Let's start with the number one news story of the year: Facebook buying Instagram for $1 billion. This is bad news for Android, because it shows that a developer can build a massively successfully product that the world goes crazy for without even using Android.

I don't see how this is bad for Android. The same could have happened the other way around, with an App initially booming on the Android platform. Also, this comment seems to presuppose that previously the contrary was thought (that an app in fact would need Android to become massively popular), which seems like a compliment for Android to me.

The next big trend that's bad for Android: It has been a complete and utter disaster in the tablet space.

I absolutely agree.

The latest release of Android's operating system has been all but ignored by consumers and by carriers.

According to data on Google's Android developer site only 2.9% of Android devices are running on "Ice Cream Sandwich," or Android 4.0. The vast majority of Android devices, 63.2%, are on Android 2.3, or Gingerbread. The next most popular flavor is Froyo, or Android 2.2, at 23.1%.

That means that 86.3% of Android users are using an outdated version of the software. They are significantly behind the times!

Either they just aren't buying the newest Android devices, or they can't get the newest software update. Either way, it's a disaster for Google, which puts a lot of effort into creating the best possible operating system with each new update.

Why is it a disaster for Google? As far as I know, people are generally pretty happy with the Android devices, regardless of the Android version. It is never a given that a phone will be updated to a later software version. This also goes for iOS. It is a bonus when a phone's OS get's updated to a later version in both iOS's and Android's case.

Here's one more data point that shows Android is in trouble: This week Verizon revealed it sold 3.2 million iPhones in the first quarter. Its overall smartphone sales were 6.2 million, which means it sold more iPhones than all other smartphone types combined.

Good. He has one statistic.

AT&T reports later, but there's no reason to believe it won't have a similar ratio.

First assumption.

And Sprint doesn't reveal its ratio, but it would be strange if it was the only carrier that didn't follow a similar pattern.

Now a second assumption gets based on a first. How can he speak of a pattern with regards to statistics when he only has one set?

In other words, on the three biggest carriers in the U.S., the iPhone is outselling Android. As we said, last year's story was the growth of Android. Apple's market share was dead in water.

This year, thanks to an expansion of carriers, the story is reversed. Now Android's market share appears to be dead in the water, and Apple is back on the rise.

It is quite incredible to see how he manages to twist one set of statistics to fit his agenda.

This is just one more opinion piece on the internet.
 
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I didn't say I don't like him. I just said that he appears to be biased. And obviously some of his points are valid, but some are obviously not.
I think you miss the entire point of the article I.e. raising concerns about Android's future (all supported by fact; except for the 2 cases where he proposes one company's sales will mirror another -- you can't say he is wrong, the only thing you can at this stage say, is that it possibly too early to tell, but he proposes that it doesn't look positive if Verizon is anything to go by)

I'm surprised that the OS you don't acknowledge as a statistic (Google provides this), and how can you not acknowledge that there is a clear issue in deploying the latest advances to the Android user base...

Btw I think you need to check your source about the OS version dispersion for iOS; the published facts don't support your argument.

Sorry but how will it ever been a positive thing to use old technology?

This article btw are IMO written to raise a few red flags around concerns that should be addressed or at minimum looked into. As you have acknowledged in at least one case he has a valid point;

Motorola is however for me Android biggest risk, and I think the conclusions he reached are quite clearly reflective of the sentiments in the market.
 
There are quite a bit of thumb sucking in the article, take the "It has been a complete and utter disaster in the tablet space" statement, Apple has steadily lost a lot of market share while Android has been getting stronger and stronger:
In October 2011 the stats were Android = 27% and Apple iPad = 67%
January 2012? Android = 39% and Apple iPad = 57.6%
That is 3 months people! In 3 months Android gained over 10% market share while Apple lost almost 10% market share. I believe that this number will see-saw a lot in 2012 with the iPad 3 and new Android tablets being released.

Now how exactly is that an utter failure on the Android front?

Another source we spoke with said that the only thing big handset makers want to talk about is Google's decision to buy Motorola. They're obsessed with it, and they're furious that Google is about to try to turn into Apple making its own hardware and its own software. This is going to alienate its biggest partners.
That is just pure speculation, a more accurate answer would probably include the 17 000 patents they acquired with the deal. Nowhere is there an official statement by Google stating why they acquired Motorola, and it has now almost been 6 months, has there been any Google/Motorola devices launched?
AFAIK they left Motorola to do what they do and churn out phones while they stick to the OS side.

However, their anger is going to manifest itself in the form of Android forking. Handset makers are going to go from being partners with Google to rivals. Even if they fail, it's another level of fragmentation and competition for Android.
Anyone is welcome to fork, but no sane vendor would even attempt it, Google Play anyone? Can any vendor, or any other OS out there even begin to compete? You may differ from me, but Google Play is the most complete and user and device friendly store to date.

I do agree that vendors are dropping the ball with OS updates and roll-outs, the rest is pure drivel.
 
He states that the Android tablet successes are linked with Amazon, a fork from Android (surely the fact that this isn't a Google product is a valid concern -- especially if you consider that Google own run at its tablet was a dismal failure, surely the others would look at Amazon and say why do we have to hedge all our bets on Google, why not try it ourselves like Amazon)

Btw if you know anything about coding you will know forking is never a good thing for the source product; for example. The webkit browser engine supporting many popular browsers was a fork from a KDE project made by Apple... The original KDE project FYI today is dead...

This he raises as a concern in light of the Motorola merger; which btw has demonstratively shown that their patents are by in large worthless I.e. on their own they do not generate sufficient revenue to sustain Motorola.

So Google have either just wasted a lot of billions for what is financially worthless patents or maybe they are looking at trying to replicate Apple's model (which btw means an end to the Nexus model)

Ask yourself what other possible value could they derive from Motorola, a company whose liquidity has been in question for a number of consecutive quarters whilst Samsung has been doing well; turning a good profit in contrast?

It's for this reason he raises a concern about further forking, and you only need to look at what Samsung is currently developing unique to its be products (advertising in completion to Google, music matching, voice services similar to siri) -- all this diversification clearly support this mindset.

I suggest you look beyond your preset ideas of who this author is...and rather see this article for what it is -- a highlighting of potential risks for Android.
 
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I would only start claiming that android is in trouble when the sales fall below say 30%.

Till then I would say its doing well and not say its in trouble. If current Android 54% market share with 800 000 daily activations and increasing is the authors idea of trouble, I don't wanna see how what a success would have looked like.
 
I would only start claiming that android is in trouble when the sales fall below say 30%.

Till then I would say its doing well and not say its in trouble. If current Android 54% market share with 800 000 daily activations and increasing is the authors idea of trouble, I don't wanna see how what a success would have looked like.
Doesn't change the validity of the risks that have been raised; Microsoft laughed and so did BB when the new paradigm for smartphones started...

Btw you statement is almost word for word that of Steve Balmer when the iPhone launched I.e. he was so focused on current numbers that he missed the plot entirely.

Btw where are they today? -- point is that risks should never be ignored; and the best defense is a good offense... Unfortunately for Google it's offensive improvements are not being deployed fast enough, and worse yet, forking of its product is achieving more success (Amazon), as was the case with the webkit fork.

As much as you might believe different ;I am not rooting for Android to fail, exactly the opposite, we need strong competition to drive technology; without competition we end up with complacency like what happened to IE and Windows for a few years.
 
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[)roi(];8123774 said:
Doesn't change the validity of the risks that have been raised; Microsoft laughed and so did BB when the new paradigm for smartphones started... Where are they today -- point is that risks should never be ignored; and the best defense is a good offense... Unfortunately for Google it's offensive improvements are not being deployed fast enough.

That's the thing. Android is listening and its evolving. You do know that android is Open Source?

That means the OS belongs to you and me, if you don't like something, learn to code and go change it.

You can start here: http://source.android.com/
 
That's the thing. Android is listening and its evolving. You do know that android is Open Source?

That means the OS belongs to you and me, if you don't like something, learn to code and go change it.

You can start here: http://source.android.com/

Hahaha I know where to find the source, possibly better than you re I code for the platform. If you deem forking to be a success then clearly you're never tried to maintain an open source development project. Pain in the arse would be a nice way to word it.

Basically forks mean that major parts of the code set are frozen, and additions only become relevant in a particular fork... Surely you don't see this as a positive thing?

Forks are not evolution; it's more likely genetic mutations... Or alternatively festering wounds... Forks generally occur when there is a lack of consensus...
 
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[)roi(];8123784 said:
Hahaha I know where to find the source, possibly better than you re I code for the platform. If you deem forking to be a success then clearly you're never tried to maintain an open source development project. Pain in the arse would be a nice way to word it.

Basically forks mean that major parts of the code set are frozen, and additions only become relevant in a particular fork... Surely you don't see this as a positive thing?

Forks are not evolution; it's more likely genetic mutations... Or alternatively festering wounds... Forks generally occur when there is a lack of consensus...

Who said forking it? You know you can submit upstream?

If your way of doing it better is truly that, it will go into the mainstream.

As for Open source management I bet you would not claim that if you truly knew my identity, but I'll jut leave it at that as I am in no mood for a pissing contest.
 
Who said forking it? You know you can submit upstream?

If your way of doing it better is truly that, it will go into the mainstream.

As for Open source management I bet you would not claim that if you truly knew my identity, but I'll jut leave it at that as I am in no mood for a pissing contest.
Lol pissing contest; btw if you remember we discussed what you did about 6 months ago... Don't take the comments personally, as they are not intended in that light -- rather an expression of the difficulty to maintain a mainstream codeset around multiple forks.

Amazon btw is a fork; all the custom Samsung mods are a fork... Hence it takes time to retrofit the "mutations" onto the mainstream codeset.

Amazon chose to screw retrofitting and I believe their success will encourage companies like Samsung to go down the same road I.e. create a Samsung fork, and be damned with the time / cost waste each time Google believes it has a winner.

If anything Google's merger with Motorola and failure to produce a solid tablet OS should encourage them to fork earlier and follow Amazon's success.

Should these forks occur; know that this will result in distinctly different products... with an aging common codeset that will stem the amount of innovation possible in developer circles I.e. limited to Apis common to all platforms, or having to write platform specific codesets.

Webkit in comparison is strictly controlled ito forking... and is more true to the open source methodology I.e. evolution is done by multiple contributors, yet there is strong control by an appointed board of the main players... Not the case with Android where much of the codeset is hands off (I.e. Google specifically refrains from jointly developing new releases with all interested contributors, hence there is always a significant time required for retrofitting by it's partners)

One way to save Android IMO from forking is to replicate the webkit model. I.e. encourage companies like Amazon to stay in the fold, and to develop a framework that minimizes the amount of retrofitting required for each new release, including building standard interface layers that substantially uncomplicate the retrofit processes -- ideally this should be transparent i.e. Samsung only needs to develop a few custom drivers and the rest is mostly change ignorant.
 
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Really?

KDE is very much alive and well...

Maybe you should have read a little more to understand the KDE reference I.e. specific mention of the link with webkit I.e. it was the browser project I was specifically referencing (as you should have concluded re webkit, which as I mentioned was originally started as a KDE project; thereafter Apple forked it to form webkit) -- so to be even more clear no reference to the Linux UI part.
 
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The latest release of Android's operating system has been all but ignored by consumers and by carriers.

According to data on Google's Android developer site only 2.9% of Android devices are running on "Ice Cream Sandwich," or Android 4.0. The vast majority of Android devices, 63.2%, are on Android 2.3, or Gingerbread. The next most popular flavor is Froyo, or Android 2.2, at 23.1%.

That means that 86.3% of Android users are using an outdated version of the software. They are significantly behind the times!

Either they just aren't buying the newest Android devices, or they can't get the newest software update. Either way, it's a disaster for Google, which puts a lot of effort into creating the best possible operating system with each new update.

So.... Windows 7 is a failure because people are still using XP? Windows Server 2008 is a failure because 2003 is still used? Windows 8 is a failure because people are still using 7?

And yes, the comparison between 7 and 8 is valid, because almost no carriers have released ICS updates, and almost no ICS phones have come out. Call it what you will, but for it to be fragmentation, the update has to actually be available.

Oh and another inconvenient thing. Find me an app that runs on ICS but not Froyo, or vice versa. Just one. Please. Then I'll believe you that fragmentation is a problem.
 
[)roi(];8123794 said:
Lol pissing contest; btw if you remember we discussed what you did about 6 months ago... Don't take the comments personally, as they are not intended in that light -- rather an expression of the difficulty to maintain a mainstream codeset around multiple forks.

Amazon btw is a fork; all the custom Samsung mods are a fork... Hence it takes time to retrofit the "mutations" onto the mainstream codeset.

Amazon chose to screw retrofitting and I believe their success will encourage companies like Samsung to go down the same road I.e. create a Samsung fork, and be damned with the time / cost waste each time Google believes it has a winner.

If anything Google's merger with Motorola and failure to produce a solid tablet OS should encourage them to fork earlier and follow Amazon's success.

Should these forks occur; know that this will result in distinctly different products... with an aging common codeset that will stem the amount of innovation possible in developer circles I.e. limited to Apis common to all platforms, or having to write platform specific codesets.

Webkit in comparison is strictly controlled ito forking... and is more true to the open source methodology I.e. evolution is done by multiple contributors, yet there is strong control by an appointed board of the main players... Not the case with Android where much of the codeset is hands off (I.e. Google specifically refrains from jointly developing new releases with all interested contributors, hence there is always a significant time required for retrofitting by it's partners)

One way to save Android IMO from forking is to replicate the webkit model. I.e. encourage companies like Amazon to stay in the fold, and to develop a framework that minimizes the amount of retrofitting required for each new release, including building standard interface layers that substantially uncomplicate the retrofit processes -- ideally this should be transparent i.e. Samsung only needs to develop a few custom drivers and the rest is mostly change ignorant.

Wow debating with you is debating with a religious person, no wonder they say Apple users are religious. (Circle jerk much?)
When I said nothing stops you from fixing Android you claim that starting another fork is a bad idea.
When I said you dont have to fork you can simply add to the main tree you complain about someone that did fork.

Amazon's fork had nothing to do with the original "well fix it" argument but in any event.

Amazon is selling a service, not a product and they wanted to limit people to use other services hence the fork. Something that would not exactly work for other OEM's as they don't make money off a service but they make money off a product. This fork forced them to run their own app sore as well, seeing that the limitations they added caused over 90% of the Android apps to stop working with the Kindle.

As for Samsung's modifications, you are aware that all the core modifications make it back into the main stream? The Hardware acceleration that we enjoy now in Android 4.0+ was a mod to the core Samsung employed back in the 2.3 days.

If you fork you limit your users access to the Google market so you better have a decent market in place to keep your customers else they will vote with their wallets and go to a competing platform that does give them access. So yes, you can fork but that is a very dangerous game to play when it comes to Android as an OS. Something that can very well happen if Motorola+Google decide to break away from the main alliance.

The other OEM's like LG, Samsung, HTC, ASUS, Dell, and more can simply move their support to say Appbrain. This will kill Google as the head of the Project I am sure, but will not kill the OS.

Android is simply not just one company, its the global effort of loads of manufacturers, service providers, developers and users and that is its real strength.
 
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