Success by default?
Let's make no mistake: Windows Vista will be a success. But it will happen almost by default.
Corporate IT administrators are tied into Microsoft's network architecture, while consumers will probably pick a PC because they trust brands such as HP, Dell or Sony and because PC manufacturers simply take up more shelf space than Apple's narrow product range.
"Very few consumers will choose to upgrade to Vista," says Mr Colony. "Nobody is choosing to install it, they will upgrade only by buying a new machine."
Forrester estimates that by the end of this year, Vista will have a 15% share of the North American consumer market, which amounts to about 12.2 million units. By 2011 it expects Vista to have 70% of the market, or just over 73 million installations.
Considering that Windows is one of Microsoft's two big profit engines (the other is the productivity software Office), executives at the company headquarters in Redmond, Washington, can probably relax.
But these numbers do not secure Microsoft's future in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
The problem, says Mr Colony, is Microsoft's brand perception: A Forrester survey of 50,000 consumers suggests that Microsoft is the consumer brand with the highest number of installations, but also the company with the second-lowest approval rating among its customers, says Mr Colony.
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Why the rivals don't deliver
Microsoft's weakness, however, is also its biggest strength.
Rival Apple may grab the headlines (and the biggest share of the MP3 player market), but in the computer space it is puny.
The reason: Apple insists on controlling the whole package, from the operating system to the central hardware.
As a result, Apple lacks the breadth of hard- and software that attracts customers.
Apple may glow in the halo of its iconic iPods and gain kudos from the tech-savvy crowd. But so far, the shallowness of Apple's industrial ecosystem has made the firm's offering pricey and limited its success in the market place.
Microsoft's other rival, the open-source Linux operating system, has a similar problem.
Even though products like Ubuntu and Suse Linux show great promise, there are still issues with compatibility and ease of use.