Cool, some information for everyone from many hours of reading:
1. The original iPhone sold in the US, was not locked to a contract. You could buy it cash in the US, without signing a contract, but because it was network locked, the implication was that you would use it on the Contract.
2. The iPhone 3g is now being sold where you *have* to sign a contract. It appears that in AT&T stores you will have to activate in the store, in Apple stores you will have to sign the contract in the store, and then activate at home. If you do not activate within 30 days, you will be charged some kind of "penalty" on your credit card. Now, if this ends up being $199 dollars (bringing the price back up to $399 or 499) then I'll be happy - basically, it will be like buying it cash, then you will have to crack it. If it's higher, or if they force you to activate in the store with Apple aswell, then bringing in grey market phones from the US will be very difficult. I think Apple is doing this purely to ensure that AT&T get the exclusivity they have paid for.
3. A semi official source from AT&T (someone talking on the record, who is employed, bt who seemed studid
) reported to one of the tech blogs (either Engadget / Gizmodo) that the iPhone 3g will NOT be available on prepaid in the US.
4. The iGear pricing is purely speculative / guesswork. They say as much on the product.
5. Some background on cell phones in the US. It's unusual for there to be big subsidy on cell phones in the US. An N95, for example, can cost as much as a $500 pay in, even on a high end contract. Furthermore, in the US, it's unusual for the subsidy to get bigger the more expensive your contract. By contrast, in SA, the subsidy amount is worked out as a function of the total value of your contract - so, expect the iPhone to be more expensive on some contracts / cheaper on other contracts.
5. The fact that Vodaphone has announced pay as you guy pricing in European countries is no guarantee that we will receive the same here. Some European countries have laws that prevent companies from only offering a cell phone on contract -IE, it has to be available as a cash purchase, free of a contract.
6. Launch date. Nothing official has been said yet, so the only thing we can guarantee is that it's after the 11th of July. The rumours of 20th of July seem *relatively* credible to me, but it's no guarantee.
6. My guess at contract pricing? I would say between R2500 and R3500 pay in, depending on the contract, for the 8gb. Add R800 to R1000 for 16gb. I hope I'm wrong, and it's a bit cheaper though! This price is based on Vodacom owning customers to the tune of about R1000 to R1500, because they have a monopoly. My personal feeling is that a $199 price with a contract in the US should translate to between free and R2000, depending on your contract here, because our subsidies are generally bigger, with R2000 being the upper level because, regardless of what the exchange rate says, current rand prices for this type of product are generally 10x the dollar price
7. I'm guessing cash price, if offered, for the 8gb being between R4500 and R5500, and cash price for the 16gb about R1000 more. These prices are based on my experience of US prices vs SA retail prices for other Apple products, and tech in general. (iPod Touch price in the US? $299.... cheapest price here? R3500 at launch, later R2999).
Let me know if you think I'm getting something wrong / I'm insane
Obviously a lot of this is speculation, but I like to think it's mostly informed speculation. I got so frustrated this week watching SA bloggers twittering links to posts that told me nothing except for the fact that they didn't read the Apple website closely, and definitely aren't monitoring the general internet chatter.
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